Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Administration’s Skinny Budget & Em Emerg rging ing Fis iscal cal Age genda nda Sharon on Pa Parr rrott tt Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Ap April 3, 2017 cbpp.org 0
1 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities What is in the Skinny Budget? In: Left t for May: • Discretionary funding • Tax reform proposals levels for each federal • Revenue projections department in 2018 • Entitlement policy changes • Entitlement program • Brief descriptions of major projections cuts in each department • Deficit projections • Discretionary program funding levels beyond 2018 cbpp.org 1
2 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Emerging Fiscal Agenda is Hardly Hidden • Balance the budget over the next 10 years • Enact large, regressive tax cuts • Increase defense Likely means… – Cuts in NDD, potentially growing deeper over time – Cuts in entitlements, could include… • Renewed effort to cut Medicaid/health • Cuts in other core safety net programs cbpp.org 2
3 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Discretionary Programs • Two types of “discretionary” programs – Defense and Non-Defense • 2011 Budget Control Act put a cap on defense and a separate cap on NDD funding – caps are annual • Those caps are FURTHER LOWERED each year starting by “sequestration” cuts because Congress did not reach a deficit reduction deal in the timeframe set out by the BCA cbpp.org
4 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Non-Defense Discretionary Spending, FY2016 cbpp.org 4
5 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Skinny Budget Targets Non-Defense Discretionary Programs for Deeper Cuts cbpp.org 5
6 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Federal Agencies Have Already Sustained Deep Cuts cbpp.org 6
7 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Examples of Areas Cut/Eliminated Basic c pub ublic c services vices Resear search/F ch/Future re produ oductivity ctivity of the e Workfor orce ce Ec Economi nomic c Developme elopment nt Environ En onme mental ntal Prot otect ection ion Fore reign gn As Assista tanc nce As Assist stanc nce to strug uggl gling ing fa fami mili lies es and worker ers cbpp.org
8 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Non-Defense Discretionary Spending Set to Fall to Historically Low Levels Under Current Law cbpp.org
9 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities We Need Another Bipartisan Agreement to Reduce Sequestration cbpp.org 9
10 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities But, discretionary program cuts are not the only part of the Administration’s agenda… cbpp.org
11 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities House GOP Plan Would Have Meant Millions More Uninsured cbpp.org 11
12 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Original House GOP Health Plan: Cut Assistance for Low- and Moderate-Income People; Cut Taxes for the Wealthy and Medical Industries cbpp.org 12
13 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities More Tax Cuts Coming: “It’s gonna be a big tax cut, the biggest since Reagan, maybe bigger than Reagan.” — President Donald Trump, March 7, 2017 cbpp.org
14 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Entitlements Outside of Medicare and Social Security May be Targeted for cuts Potential sources of deficit reduction: – Revenue increases : • Administration wants tax cut uts (could make deficit LARGER) – Discretionary Programs • In 2018, Administration cuts NDD to offset for defense nse increas reases es, could be deeper cuts in the outyears – Medicare and Social Security • President says “off the table” though OMB director may be trying to get them on? – Other er en entit itlem ements ents, , such h as Med edic icaid id, SNAP, , SSI, EITC • WHAT’S LEFT cbpp.org 14
15 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Key Legislative Moments • FY 2017 appropriations – April/May • FY 2017 supplemental request (?) • Trump full budget – mid-May • 2018 Budget Resolution (?) • Tax reform – spring/summer • Debt ceiling – late summer/fall • CHIP funding ends – 9/30/2017 • FY 2018 appropriations process – summer/fall/early winter cbpp.org
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