Em Emerg rging ing Fis iscal cal Age genda nda Sharon on Pa - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org

Administration’s Skinny Budget & Em Emerg rging ing Fis iscal cal Age genda nda

Sharon

• n Pa

Parr rrott tt

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Ap April 3, 2017

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org 1

In:

• Discretionary funding

levels for each federal department in 2018

• Brief descriptions of major

cuts in each department Left t for May:

• Tax reform proposals
• Revenue projections
• Entitlement policy changes
• Entitlement program

projections

• Deficit projections
• Discretionary program

funding levels beyond 2018

1

What is in the Skinny Budget?

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• Balance the budget over the next 10 years
• Enact large, regressive tax cuts
• Increase defense

Likely means…

– Cuts in NDD, potentially growing deeper over time – Cuts in entitlements, could include…

• Renewed effort to cut Medicaid/health
• Cuts in other core safety net programs

2

Emerging Fiscal Agenda is Hardly Hidden

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Discretionary Programs

• Two types of “discretionary” programs – Defense

and Non-Defense

• 2011 Budget Control Act put a cap on defense and

a separate cap on NDD funding – caps are annual

• Those caps are FURTHER LOWERED each year

starting by “sequestration” cuts because Congress did not reach a deficit reduction deal in the timeframe set out by the BCA

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Non-Defense Discretionary Spending, FY2016

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Skinny Budget Targets Non-Defense Discretionary Programs for Deeper Cuts

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Federal Agencies Have Already Sustained Deep Cuts

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Examples of Areas Cut/Eliminated

Basic c pub ublic c services vices Resear search/F ch/Future re produ

• ductivity

ctivity of the e Workfor

• rce

ce Ec Economi nomic c Developme elopment nt En Environ

• nme

mental ntal Prot

• tect

ection ion Fore reign gn As Assista tanc nce As Assist stanc nce to strug uggl gling ing fa fami mili lies es and worker ers

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Non-Defense Discretionary Spending Set to Fall to Historically Low Levels Under Current Law

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We Need Another Bipartisan Agreement to Reduce Sequestration

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But, discretionary program cuts are not the

• nly part of the Administration’s agenda…

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House GOP Plan Would Have Meant Millions More Uninsured

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Original House GOP Health Plan: Cut Assistance for Low- and Moderate-Income People; Cut Taxes for the Wealthy and Medical Industries

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More Tax Cuts Coming:

“It’s gonna be a big tax cut, the biggest since Reagan, maybe bigger than Reagan.”

— President Donald Trump, March 7, 2017

13

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org 14

Potential sources of deficit reduction: – Revenue increases:

• Administration wants tax cut

uts (could make deficit LARGER) – Discretionary Programs

• In 2018, Administration cuts NDD to offset for defense

nse increas reases es, could be deeper cuts in the outyears – Medicare and Social Security

• President says “off the table” though OMB director may be trying

to get them on?

– Other er en entit itlem ements ents, , such h as Med edic icaid id, SNAP, , SSI, EITC

• WHAT’S LEFT

14

Entitlements Outside of Medicare and Social Security May be Targeted for cuts

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org 15

Key Legislative Moments

• FY 2017 appropriations – April/May
• FY 2017 supplemental request (?)
• Trump full budget – mid-May
• 2018 Budget Resolution (?)
• Tax reform – spring/summer
• Debt ceiling – late summer/fall
• CHIP funding ends – 9/30/2017
• FY 2018 appropriations process –

summer/fall/early winter