SLIDE 1
Introduction: Dengue In the Americas
Source: Data compiled from Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Case Reports
Electronic Health Markets Used to Predict the Spread of Dengue IMED - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Electronic Health Markets Used to Predict the Spread of Dengue IMED - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Electronic Health Markets Used to Predict the Spread of Dengue IMED February 6, 2011 Introduction: Dengue In the Americas Source: Data compiled from Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Case Reports What are Prediction Markets? Used
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SLIDE 3
What are Prediction Markets?
- Used to predict event outcomes (commodity prices, elections,
corporate earnings, movie box office returns, disease outbreaks)
- Useful in quantifying professional opinion, knowledge, and
experience
- Participants purchase or sell shares based on their degree of certainty
- f a particular outcome
- Prices reflect the strength of traders’ beliefs in an outcome-higher
prices mean greater probability of that outcome
- Prior work with prediction markets has shown that they can provide
accurate predictions weeks before an event occurs
SLIDE 4
Dengue Market Methods
- Participants were given $100 of a valueless currency (Dengue Dollars)
- Market questions addressed dengue-related events
- How many dengue cases will be reported in the 50 United States in 2010?
- How many states will report locally acquired cases in 2010?
- By what percent will dengue cases reported to PAHO increase in 2010 (above
2009 reported cases)?
- By what percent will severe dengue cases reported to PAHO increase in 2010
(above 2009 reported cases)?
- Multiple choices for trading were provided for each question
- Traders bought and sold shares based on their knowledge and certainty of
dengue-related outcomes
- Contract (share) prices can be interpreted as the consensus probabilities of
event occurrence
- Final contract values were determined using traditional surveillance data
SLIDE 5
Market Participant Profile
Countries Represented
- Austria: 1
- Brazil: 1
- Canada: 3
- Germany: 3
- Jamaica: 1
- Netherlands: 1
- Peru: 1
- Spain: 1
- United Kingdom: 1
- USA: 69
Participant Occupations Number of Participants Epidemiologists: 13 Students 7 Public Health Officials 6 Physicians 6 Microbiologists 5 Economists 5 Nurses 2 Journalists 1 Other 37 Total 82 Active Participants
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U.S. Cumulative Numbers of Dengue Cases
Dengue Market Results: US Case Counts (Ed. 1)
142 165 213 232 270 286 294 315
SLIDE 7
U.S. Cumulative Numbers of Dengue Cases
Dengue Market Results: US Case Counts (Ed. 2)
315 333 346 355 368 373 390 394 421 459 462 469 471
SLIDE 8
Dengue Market Results: States with Dengue
89% Probable
SLIDE 9
Dengue Market Results: PAHO Rise in Dengue Cases
68% Probable
SLIDE 10
Dengue Market Results: PAHO Rise in Severe Dengue
43% Probable
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Dengue Market Limitations, Conclusions, and Policy Implications
Market Limitations
- Number of participants
- Expertise of participating traders
- Frequency of trading
- Reliance on traditional surveillance
Conclusions
- The markets provided some predictions
that could be useful to policymakers.
- While some predictions may seem logical
to experts in infectious diseases, synthesized opinion and prediction is a powerful tool to inform policymakers of likely outcomes.
- Markets have the potential as a predictive
tool to help guide public health policies for infectious disease outbreaks.
Future Directions
- New markets are open for Dengue and
Chikungunya
- New markets will focus on more policy
- riented questions
- We will increase the number, geographic
diversity and range of expertise of traders
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THANK YOU!
Crystal Boddie, MPH Associate boddiecr@upmc.edu
Center for Biosecurity of UPMC Team
Tara Kirk Sell, MA Associate tksell@upmc.edu
University of Iowa Team
Philip Polgreen, MD, MPH Assistant Professor philip-polgreen@uiowa.edu Anson Ho PhD Graduate Student ansontaiyat-ho@uiowa.edu