Electrification and coal phase-out in Germany: A scenario analysis - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Electrification and coal phase-out in Germany: A scenario analysis - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Electrification and coal phase-out in Germany: A scenario analysis Felix Bing , Andrej Guminski, Alexander Murmann, Christoph Pellinger, Maximilian Kubatz 27th June 2018, EEM, d 1 1. Motivation: Electrification dilemma 2 2 1.

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Electrification and coal phase-out in Germany: A scenario analysis

Felix Böing, Andrej Guminski, Alexander Murmann, Christoph Pellinger, Maximilian Kubatz 27th June 2018, EEM, Łódź

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  • 1. Motivation: Electrification dilemma
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion
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  • 1. Motivation: Electrification dilemma

 2. Method: Energy system modelling

  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion
  • What are the energy system effects of a lignite phase-out or an

increasing CO2-price in a high electrification and high RES scenario?

  • What role do Germany’s neighboring countries play with respect to

the procurement of supply security and emissions?

  • What are the operational characteristics and transmission grid

repercussions of future peak-load generation units in an electrification regime?

Electrification / RES potential analysis for GER Definition of Scenarios Regionalization and calculation of RES-generation and load profiles Simulation Evaluation

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  • 2. Method: Scenario Analysis
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion

Reference Scenario [Ref61]

  • no electrification
  • low grid congestion

Parameter Unit Value Value Year

  • 2015

2030 Electrical FEC (Domestic / Industry / SME / Transport / DistH / Grid losses) TWh 129 / 225 / 150 / 11 / 1 / 26 Sum: 542 134 / 210 / 110 / 21 / 1 / 23 Sum: 499 Fuel Prices (Oil / Gas / Hard Coal / Lignite) €/ MWhth 35.9 / 21.8 / 8.8 / 1.5 52 / 29 / 9.5 / 1.5 CO2-Price €/tCO2 7.6 30 Conventional Generation Capacities GWel 87 (of which 32.9 coal-fired) 59 (of which 23 coal-fired) RES Capacity (Wind-Offshore / Wind-Onshore / PV) GWel 3.4 / 41.2 / 39.3 15 / 59 / 77 RES-Share % 33 61

Electrification Scenario [Elec61]

Parameter Unit Value Electrical FEC (Domestic / Industry / SME / Transport / DistH / Grid losses) TWh 180 / 330/ 167 / 28 / 20 / 34 Sum: 759 RES Capacity (Wind-Offshore / Wind- Onshore / PV) GWel 15 / 99 / 146 RES-Share % 61

Electrification Scenario [Elec75]

Parameter Unit Value Electrical FEC (Domestic / Industry / SME / Transport / DistH / Grid losses) TWh 180 / 330/ 167 / 28 / 20 / 34 Sum: 759 RES Capacity (Wind-Offshore / Wind- Onshore / PV) GWel 15 / 125 / 190 RES-Share % 75

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  • 2. Method: Scenario Analysis
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion

Electrification Scenarios

[Elec61] | [Elec75]

  • 9 GW of

lignite-fired power plants European CO2-price increased 30 120 €/t German CO2-price increased 30 120 €/t

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  • 2. Method: Simulation Tool „ISAaR“
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion

Fixed generation dispatch GER/AUT grid congestion simulation European market simulation European grid simulation GER/AUT market simulation Fixed power plant dispatch

1 4 3 2

Fixed cross-border flows ISAaR simulation sequence

ISAaR: Integrated simulation model for plant dispatch and expansion planning with regionalization

  • European Energy System Model, regional resolution: NUTS3/Communities
  • Grid Model: Transmission grid level, 496 nodes in GER/AT; ~1500 Europe
  • Linearized load flow calculation according to PTDF method; "n-1" safe operation due to a max.

AC line loading of 70%.

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  • 3. Results: Increase of gas-fired generation & higher imports
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion

25 83 111 104 160 63 85 78 129 93 118 136 157 115 104 120 139 98 49 51 56 29 21 43 47 25 18 88 89 27 37 23 80 25 29 18

  • 57
  • 44
  • 33
  • 29
  • 20
  • 73
  • 61
  • 60
  • 41

223 _120 300 Ref61 299 _nl Elec61 301 219 _120 Elec75 _120_DE _120_DE 199 300 218 213 _nl Oil Lignite Gas Hard Coal Export Import

Elec61 Elec75

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  • 3. Results: High capacity gap but low full load hours
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion
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  • 3. Results: Emission coefficient of power generation
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion

Elec61 Elec75 301 257 193 212 180 225 162 177 145

  • 48
  • 38
  • 73
  • 2
  • 59
  • 51
  • 87

42 2

  • 119

2 7

  • 34
  • 164
  • 36

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CO2-coefficient of German power generation in gCO2/kWh Delta in CO2-emissions to Ref61 in Mio. tCO2 (EU) Delta in CO2-emissions to Ref61 in Mio. tCO2 (GER)

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  • 3. Results:
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion

4.8 13.0 13.0 13.5 15.5 15.4 16.8

  • 0.9
  • 2.7
  • 2.7
  • 2.7
  • 4.3
  • 3.6
  • 3.4
  • 1.8
  • 0.6
  • 0.6
  • 0.5
  • 20.3
  • 18.1
  • 14.9
  • 5.7
  • 10.9
  • 10.9
  • 11.4
  • 31.5
  • 29.9
  • 28.3

Ref61 Elec61 Elec61_nl Elec61_120 Elec75 Elec75_nl Elec75_120

Curtailment and Redispatch (TWh)

Redispatch (positive) Redispatch curtailment (market simulation) curtailment (grid congestion simulation) positive redispatch negative redispatch curtailment (market simulation) curtailment (grid congestion simulation)

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  • 4. Conclusion: Electrification dilemma
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion
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  • 4. Conclusion: Investigated decarbonisation scenarios
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion
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  • 4. Conclusion: Energy system repercussions
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion
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  • 4. Conclusion: Overall reduction of CO2-coefficient
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion
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  • 4. Conclusion: Regulatory measures
  • 1. Motivation
  • 2. Method
  • 3. Results
  • 4. Conclusion

European energy transition Grid expansion Demand and supply-side capacitiy market

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Thanks for your attention

Contact details: Felix Böing, M.Sc. +49 (89) 158121-59 FBoeing@ffe.de Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft e.V./ Research Center for Energy Economics Am Blütenanger 71 80995 München Germany www.ffe.de Dynamis Project: www.ffe.de/dynamis Funded by:

FKZ: 03ET4037A