Economic & Market Implications of COVID-19 Coronavirus/COVID-19: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

April 2020 Economic & Market Implications of COVID-19

Coronavirus/COVID-19: 2,518,275 Cases; > 200 Countries Source: John Hopkins; New York Times Data through 4/20 Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Global COVID-19 Statistics Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Country Level COVID-19 Statistics Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

The U.S. Leads in Tests Administered, but Lags in % of Population Tested Source: Longview Economics; Boston Partners Data as of April 20th Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

COVID-19: A Sign of Improvement – Confirmed Cases Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

COVID-19: A Sign of Improvement - Deaths Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Leading Economic Indicators Have Collapsed Source: Bloomberg; ECRI: Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Individual U.S. GDP Forecasts: “V”, “U” or “Fish Hook” Recovery Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Data as of April 8, 2020 Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

IMF Expecting a “V” Global Economic Recovery Source: State Street; International Monetary Fund Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Unprecedented Federal Reserve Response Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve; Wall St. Journal; Bloomberg Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Unprecedented Global Monetary and Fiscal Response Source: Bloomberg; HSBC; Cornerstone Macro Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Financial Stress Factors Initially Spiked but Have Fallen Since Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Volatility Initially Spiked to Record Highs but has Since Receded Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

From the 2 nd Longest Bull Market to the Fastest Bear Market Since WWll Source: Ned Davis Research; Financial Times; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Downward Revisions for S&P 500 EPS, P/E Multiple Contracts Source: FactSet; Boston Partners Source: FactSet Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

2020 Earnings in Most Sectors Set to Fall, Energy Hit Hardest Source: FactSet; Boston Partners Source: FactSet Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Consensus Earnings Are Projected to Rebound in 2021 for the S&P 500 Source: FactSet Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

S&P 500 EPS and P/E Declines During Recessions Source: FactSet; Goldman Sachs; Credit Suisse Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

S&P 500 Price Reaction: Most Similar to Lehman Bankruptcy During GFC Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

After a 50% Retracement of Max Drawdown, What Next? Source: Bespoke Investment Group Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

U.S. Bear Markets Since WWll Source: Citigroup; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Length of U.S. Recessions Source: Bloomberg; Boston Partners Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Is the Worst Over?: The Stages of Investor Psychology Source: Modern Time Investors Past performance is not an indication of future results. Please refer to the appendix for other important disclosures. Boston Partners 

Conclusions COVID- 19 “Curve” Ascending at a Decelerating Rate 1 Large Dispersion of Economic Forecasts 2 Monetary and Fiscal Responses Should Temper Recession 3 Stock Market Already Pricing In a Recession 4 “V” Recovery of Economy Unlikely, Stock Market ??? 5