Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern

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Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D.

  • Sr. VP/Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research

LAEDC February 17, 2016

2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

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SLIDE 2
  • U.S. Economy
  • California Economy
  • Southern California Economy & Industries
  • Conclusion/2016-17 Forecast Summary

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Outline

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SLIDE 3

U.S. Economy

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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GDP – Low Steady Growth

3.3 2.7 1.8

  • 0.3
  • 2.8

2.5 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Annual % Change

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SLIDE 5

U.S. Economy at a Glance

  • Consumer Sector
  • Business Sector
  • Government
  • International Trade
  • Other Macro Indicators:
  • Labor Market
  • Inflation

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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SLIDE 6
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Consumption Up With Income Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Annual % Change

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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SLIDE 7

5.0% 6.6% 4.5% 2.6%

  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Total Equipment Intellectual Property Structures 2015 2016 2017

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Annual Percentage Change

Business Investment Spending

Source: IHS, LAEDC

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SLIDE 8

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f

Receipts Outlays

Budget Deficit Stable, Rising in 2020+

Source: Office of Management & Budget

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Source: Office of Management and Budget

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SLIDE 9

75 80 85 90 95 100 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

Dollar: Index vs Basket of Currencies

Source: Federal Reserve via FRED

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Higher Dollar:

  • Pricier Exports
  • Less Expensive Imports/Foreign Travel

Source: Federal Reserve

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SLIDE 10

Global Economy Up Overall

  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 World Euro Area Developing Asia Latin America/Carb. Japan 2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Annual % Growth

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2016 Update

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SLIDE 11

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 U.S.: 4.9%

U.S. At Full Employment

Source: US BLS, CA EDD

Unemployment Rate

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Wage & Salary Jobs…Slower Growth

1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.4

  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC

% Change

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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U.S. Consumer Inflation Rising

0.1 2.0 2.4

  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f Year-Year % Change in CPI-U

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; forecasts by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Forecast: What to Watch

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Kyser Center for Economic Research

Key Interest Rates

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

Fed Funds Fixed Rate Mort 10-Year T-Bond

Source: Federal Reserve

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25 50 75 100 125 150 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 West TX Intermediate

Plunging Oil … Good or Bad?

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Dollars/barrel

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Source: US Energy Information Administration

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  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual % Change in Hourly Wage Annual Inflation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

First Significant Wage Gains in Years

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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SLIDE 18

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Hot Button Issue: Household Income

Kyser Center for Economic Research

57.8 57.4 53.7

40 45 50 55 60

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Median HH Income in Thousands of 2014 Dollars

Source: Census Bureau

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SLIDE 19

Source: Federal Reserve

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Stock Market Volatility Up

13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 17,500 18,000 18,500 19,000 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Daily DJIA Oct.’14

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China & U.S. Economy

  • Exports to China as % of GDP:

– US: 0.96% – CA: 1.10%

  • Linkages & Ripple Effects

– Financial system: global integration – Economic system:

  • U.S. linkages limited

– Ripple effects

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Exports as % of GDP

Kyser Center for Economic Research

51 48 42 32 32 23 21 18 16 14 12 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

  • S. Korea

Saudi Arabia European Union Mexico Canada China Australia Nigeria Japan (2013) USA Brazil Source: World Bank

Selected Countries (2014)

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U.S. Forecast

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Forecast Source: LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. FORECAST: Steady, Modest Growth

2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Real GDP - Annual % Chg. 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% Unemployment Rate 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 1.6% 0.1% 2.0% 2.4%

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Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Economy

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Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS, forecasts by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Growth Outpacing U.S.

  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f US GDP CA GSP

Annual % Change

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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 U.S.: 5.0% CA : 5.8%

CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly

Source: US BLS, CA EDD

Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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CA Job Gains Outpace U.S.

  • 7
  • 6
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC

% Change

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by California Metro Area

1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.8% 4.4% 5.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Bakersfield Ventura Oakland Los Angeles Modesto Sacramento Stockton San Diego Orange Fresno Riverside-San Bernardino San Francisco San Jose Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted CALIFORNIA – 2015: +470,000 +3.0% YTY

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Kyser Center for Economic Research

Long Term Job Trajectories Vary

121 103 185 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CA SF OR LA RVSB Source: EDD, Compiled by LAEDC

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Forecast Source: LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Economic Forecast

2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Nonfarm Jobs - annual % chg. 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 1.6% Unemployment Rate 7.0% 6.2% 5.5% 5.3% Personal Income - annual % chg. 4.7% 5.7% 4.7% 5.7% Total Taxable Sales - % chg. 4.9% 3.4% 5.5% 7.0% Housing Permits - thousands of units 85.8 96.5 110.0 128.8

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Southern California Economy

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Local Unemployment Rates

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15

LA - 5.8% OC - 4.1% IE - 5.9%

  • Dec. 2015
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Major Industries in Southern California

INCOME GENERATING

  • International Trade
  • Entertainment
  • Tourism
  • Business Services
  • Aerospace
  • Fashion & Apparel
  • Knowledge Creation

INCOME CIRCULATING

  • Retail Sales
  • Leisure & Hospitality
  • Health Care/Social

Assistance

  • Personal Services
  • Nonprofit Sector

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles

  • 0.9%

0.0% 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 5.9%

  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Manufacturing Information Financial Activities Government Administrative & Support & Waste Services Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Educational Services Wholesale Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Leisure & Hospitality Construction

YTY % change in nonfarm employment by industry, not seasonally adjusted Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division 2015 YTY: +94,700 jobs, +2.2% YTY; u-rate: 6.9%

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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SLIDE 35

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by Industry Orange County

  • 1.2%

0.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 4.2% 4.5% 5.4% 7.9% 11.9%

  • 4%

0% 4% 8% 12% 16%

Information Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Administrative & Support & Waste Services Wholesale Trade Government Durable Goods Leisure & Hospitality Nondurable Goods Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Transportation & Warehousing Construction Educational Services

YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry 2015 YTY: +47,400 jobs, +3.2%; u-rate: 4.4%

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SLIDE 36

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by Industry Riverside – San Bernardino

  • 0.6%

0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 3.6% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 5.1% 5.1% 6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 7.8% 9.4%

  • 5%

0% 5% 10%

Information Retail Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Government Durable Goods Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Nondurable Goods Finance & Insurance Leisure & Hospitality Educational Services Wholesale Trade Construction Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Transportation & Warehousing Administrative & Support & Waste Services

2015 YTY: +48,400 jobs, +3.8%; u-rate: 6.5% YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry

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SLIDE 37

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by Industry Ventura County

  • 2.6%
  • 0.2%

0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 5.4% 10.7%

  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Manufacturing Financial Activities Educational & Health Services Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Government Information Construction Leisure & Hospitality Administrative & Support & Waste Services Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

2015 YTY: +5,000 jobs, +1.7%; u-rate: 5.5% YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry

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11.8 13.1 14.2 15.8 15.7 14.3 11.8 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.4

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Millions of TEUs

Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports

Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

2015 YTY: +1.3%

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50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment

Thousands

  • Dec. 2015 YTY: +2.8%

2015 YTY: +4.2%

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SLIDE 40

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Professional & Business Services Employment

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura

Thousands

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

  • Dec. 2015 YTY: +2.3%

2015 YTY: +3.9%

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Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Education & Health Care Employment

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura

Thousands

  • Dec. 2015 YTY: +3.0%

2015 YTY: +3.5%

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Southern California Leisure & Hospitality Employment

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire San Diego County Ventura County

Thousands

  • Dec. 2015 YTY: +4.2%

2015 YTY: +4.0%

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

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Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Retail Employment

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura

Thousands

  • Dec. 2015 YTY: +1.9%

2015 YTY: +1.5%

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Tourism: LA County Record High

Source: L.A. Tourism and Convention Board

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2001 2012 2013 2014 2015 Day Visits Overnight Visits

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment in Los Angeles County

Sources: CA EDD. LMID

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousands

Kyser Center for Economic Research

2015 YTY: -0.5%

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SLIDE 46

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Construction Employment

100 200 300 400 500 600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura 200 thousand jobs

Thousands

  • Dec. 2015 YTY: +9.4%

2015 YTY: +6.5%

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SLIDE 47

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

SoCal Manufacturing Employment

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

2015 YTY % Chg. Durable: +0.7% Nondurable: +0.3%

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SLIDE 48

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Economics

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Value of Manufacturing Output – California

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

Billions of Inflation Adjusted Dollars (2009 Base Year)

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Southern California Real Estate

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Homeownership Stabilizing in CA

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. California

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percent, annual, not seasonally adjusted

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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SLIDE 51

Source: California Association of REALTORS

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Median Prices Existing Single-Family Homes

County Dec-14 Dec-15 YTY % Change Los Angeles $464,650 $502,750 8.2% Orange County $683,490 $710,940 4.0% San Bernardino $216,020 $234,080 8.4% Riverside County $322,020 $348,020 8.1% Ventura $569,600 $601,910 5.7% San Diego $494,500 $548,080 10.8% California $453,270 $489,310 8.0%

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Kyser Center for Economic Research

Apartment Rents – Southern California

$600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 LA OC RV SB VN

Source: CA Real Estate Research Council

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Kyser Center for Economic Research

Housing Demand Depends On:

  • Drivers:

– Job and income growth – Net increases in wealth – Demographics – Expected increases in mortgage rates

  • Constraints

– Down payment sources – Rising mortgage rates – Strict underwriting requirements

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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SLIDE 54

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Millennial Population by Age

Kyser Center for Economic Research

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

~11 Million Millennials in State of California

Source: CA Department of Finance

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  • 50

50 100 150 200 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New HH Formations Average since 1990

California Household Formation

Source: IHS Global Insight

Annual change number of households, thousands

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Mortgage Interest Rates

30-year Fixed Rate, Conventional Mortgage

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Apr-71 Feb-73 Dec-74 Oct-76 Aug-78 Jun-80 Apr-82 Feb-84 Dec-85 Oct-87 Aug-89 Jun-91 Apr-93 Feb-95 Dec-96 Oct-98 Aug-00 Jun-02 Apr-04 Feb-06 Dec-07 Oct-09 Aug-11 Jun-13 Apr-15

Source: Federal Reserve

Percentage

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County

Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

11.8 11.9 10.1 7.5 3.5 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.3 5.1 6.5 15.2 13.7 16.3 12.9 10.2 3.5 5.0 8.0 8.0 12.6 14.3 18.5 20.9 23.1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16f '17f Multi-Family Single-Family Permits issued, thousands

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SLIDE 58

Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County

Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

4.4 4.1 3.7 2.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 4.4 5.2 4.9 3.1 4.6 4.9 1.9 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 9.2 10.6

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16f '17f

Multi-Family Single-Family Permits issued, thousands

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SLIDE 59

Residential Building Permits Issued in the Inland Empire

Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

43.5 45.3 33.3 16.0 5.8 4.9 5.2 3.7 4.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 9.2 11.8 9.2 5.5 5.8 4.5 3.3 1.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 2.7 3.2 2.4 2.5 2.6

10 20 30 40 50 60 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16f '17f

Multi-Family Single-Family Permits issued, thousands

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SLIDE 60

Office Vacancy Rates Declining

Source: Cushman and Wakefield

2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30

3q07 1q08 3q08 1q09 3q09 1q10 3q10 1q11 3q11 1q12 3q12 1q13 3q13 1q14 3q14 1q15 3q15

Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Percent vacant, quarterly averages

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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SLIDE 61

Industrial Vacancy Rates Very Low

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

3q07 1q08 3q08 1q09 3q09 1q10 3q10 1q11 3q11 1q12 3q12 1q13 3q13 1q14 3q14 1q15 3q15

Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Percent vacant, quarterly averages

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Source: Cushman and Wakefield

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SLIDE 62

2016 Southern California Forecast

Kyser Center for Economic Research

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SLIDE 63

L.A. 5-County Employment Growth, 2016

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division, forecast by LAEDC

Total nonfarm job growth forecast for 2016 (thousands): +158.2 jobs

Kyser Center for Economic Research

  • 0.1

0.5 0.9 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.5 7.4 7.7 9.6 9.9 15.4 16.0 19.8 22.3 35.6

  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Finance & Insurance Manufacturing Other Services Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Information

  • Mgmt. of Enterprises

Educational Services Wholesale Trade

  • Transport. & Utilities

Construction Government Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade

  • Admin. & Support Srvs

Prof, Sci & Tech Srvs Health Care & Social Asst

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SLIDE 64

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Rank Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 1 Prof, Sci, Tech Prof, Sci, Tech Prof, Sci, Tech Admin & Supp 2 Admin & Supp Education Admin & Supp Health Care 3 Health Care Health Care Construction Prof, Sci, Tech 4 Education Admin & Supp

  • Mgmt. of Co's

Education 5 Construction Construction Trans & Utilities Real Estate

2016 Top Five Industries by Percentage Gains in Employment

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

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SLIDE 65

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Conclusion

  • Cruise Speed Growth: US, CA, & So Cal
  • Income Gains and Growth in Spending
  • California Outpacing US
  • Real Estate/Construction Outlook Good
  • Job Gains in Most Local Industries
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SLIDE 66

2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook

Thank You!

Robert.Kleinhenz@laedc.org