2014-15 LAEDC Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook Robert A. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
2014 15 laedc economic forecast and industry outlook
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

2014-15 LAEDC Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook Robert A. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 10, 2024 647 likes •1.3k views

2014-15 LAEDC Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research February 19, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy &

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D.

Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research February 19, 2014

2014-15 LAEDC Economic Forecast and Industry Outlook

slide-2
SLIDE 2
  • U.S. Economy
  • California Economy
  • Southern California Economy & Industries
  • Forecast & Conclusion

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Outline

slide-3
SLIDE 3

U.S. Economy

Kyser Center for Economic Research

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Kyser Center for Economic Research

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

  • 5.0
  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Change in Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate

U.S. Labor Market

% Change Nonfarm Jobs

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC

  • Unempl. Rate in %
slide-5
SLIDE 5

Employment Fell Faster and Longer than in Prior Recessions... …and Recovered More Slowly!

94.6 99.4 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 11/1973 - 3/1975 1/1980-7/1980 7/1981-11/1982 7/1990-3/1991 3/2001-11/2001 12/2007-6/2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Annual % change

U.S. Economic Growth

3.8 3.4 2.7 1.8

  • 0.3
  • 2.8

2.5 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.5 2.9 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Consumer Inflation

  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

YTY % change in CPI-U

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Personal Consumption

Annual percent change

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Total New Vehicle Sales

Millions of vehicles

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Reserve

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Investment Spending

  • 25.0
  • 20.0
  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Change Total Investment Spending Nonresidential Fixed Investment Residential Fixed Investment

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Source: Office of Management and Budget

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays as % of GDP

10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Receipts Outlays

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Key Interest Rates

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Fed Funds Fixed Rate Mort 10-Year T-Bond

Source: Federal Reserve

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Kyser Center for Economic Research

  • Global growth forecasts advanced economies
  • 2014: +3.7%
  • 2015: +3.9%
  • Growth returns to Euro-zone
  • Slower growth in China and emerging markets
  • Feedback effects throughout global economy

Global Economy

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Forecast Source: LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

U.S. Economic Forecast

2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f

GDP - Annual % Chg. 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.5% 2.9% Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.6% 6.1% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1%

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Economy

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; forecasts by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Growth Tracks U.S.

2.6 2.8 3.5

  • 6.0
  • 5.0
  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US GDP CA GSP YTY % Change

slide-17
SLIDE 17

8.3% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

  • 8.0%
  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0%

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Nonfarm YTY % Change Unemployment Rate Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Unemployment Rate & Nonfarm Jobs

  • Dec. 2013: 14.8 million jobs, +1.6% YTY; U.S.: +1.7% YTY

Unemployment rate in % YTY % change, nonfarm jobs

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by California Metro Area

0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Oakland Fresno MSA Modesto LA Riverside-San Bernardino Stockton MSA San Diego Ventura Sacramento Orange County Bakersfield San Francisco San Jose Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs

  • Dec. 2013: +235,700, +1.6% YTY
slide-19
SLIDE 19

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Job Changes by Industry

  • 0.8%
  • 0.3%

0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 3.8% 4.0% 4.5% 4.8%

  • 2% -1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Government Finance & Insurance Information Educational Services Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Retail Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Wholesale Trade Administrative & Support & Waste Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Leisure & Hospitality Construction

  • Dec. 2013: +235,700, +1.6% YTY

Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs

slide-20
SLIDE 20

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 100 200 300 400 500 600

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Home Sales Median Home Price

Home Sales & Median Prices California

Existing, single-family homes

(Sales, Thousands, SAAR) (Price, Thousands)

Source: California Association of Realtors

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecasts by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Residential Building Permits Issued in California

139 151 155 108 68 33 25 25 22 26 36 51 73 57 62 54 56 45 32 11 20 25 32 44 62 79

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Multi-Family Single-Family

Permits issued, thousands

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Construction Employment

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13

  • Dec. 2013: +28,900 jobs, +4.8% YTY

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Forecast Source: LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

California Economic Forecast

2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f

Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg.

1.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1%

Unemployment Rate

11.8% 10.5% 8.9% 7.9% 7.1%

Personal Income - Annual % Chg.

6.6% 5.0% 2.4% 5.0% 5.2%

Total Taxable Sales - % Chg.

9.1% 7.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.9%

Housing Permits - thousands of units

47.0 57.5 79.7 112.7 152.1

slide-24
SLIDE 24
  • L. A. County &

Southern California

Kyser Center for Economic Research

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Local Unemployment Rates

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13

LA - 8.8% OC - 5.2% IE - 8.9%

  • Dec. 2013
slide-26
SLIDE 26

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Los Angeles County Nonfarm Jobs

  • 8.0%
  • 7.0%
  • 6.0%
  • 5.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 YTY % change in nonfarm jobs – Dec. 2013: +1.2% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles

  • 2.4%
  • 1.9%
  • 0.7%

0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% 3.2% 3.6% 3.8%

  • 4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Manufacturing Information Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Government Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Financial Activities Educational Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Construction Administrative & Support & Waste Services Leisure & Hospitality

YTY % change in nonfarm employment Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

  • Dec. 2013: +46,000 jobs, +1.2% YTY
slide-28
SLIDE 28

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by Industry Orange County

  • 2.7%
  • 1.1%
  • 0.3%

0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 3.6% 4.0% 4.9% 15.2%

  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Government Nondurable Goods Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Health Care & Social Assistance Transportation & Warehousing Information Retail Trade Educational Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Finance & Insurance Leisure & Hospitality Durable Goods Wholesale Trade Administrative & Support & Waste Services Construction

YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry

  • Dec. 2013: +34,500, +2.4% YTY; u-rate: 5.2%
slide-29
SLIDE 29

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by Industry Riverside – San Bernardino

  • 8.5%
  • 7.2%
  • 3.8%
  • 1.9%
  • 1.7%
  • 1.2%

0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.3% 5.4% 5.6%

  • 10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Nondurable Goods Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Finance & Insurance Administrative & Support & Waste Services Information Government Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Durable Goods Wholesale Trade Transportation & Warehousing Educational Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality Construction

  • Dec. 2013: +14,000, +1.2% YTY; u-rate: 8.9%

YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Job Trends by Industry Ventura County

  • 2.7%
  • 2.1%
  • 1.6%
  • 0.4%

0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 2.4% 3.3% 3.4% 4.1% 11.5%

  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15%

Manufacturing Financial Activities Construction Government Information Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Educational & Health Services Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Administrative & Support & Waste Services Leisure & Hospitality

  • Dec. 2013: +5,600, +2.0% YTY; u-rate: 6.9%

YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry

slide-31
SLIDE 31
  • Trade
  • Entertainment
  • Business Services
  • Private Education Institutions
  • Aerospace & Analytical Instruments
  • Fashion & Apparel Manufacturing
  • Hospitality
  • Local Serving: Retail, Medical

Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research

Major Industries in Southern California

slide-32
SLIDE 32

11.8 13.1 14.2 15.8 15.7 14.3 11.8 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f

Kyser Center for Economic Research

TEU Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports

Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC 2013: +3.5% YTY

Millions of TEUs

slide-33
SLIDE 33

50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment

Thousands

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Kyser Center for Economic Research

On-Location Production Days by Type

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Feature Films Television Commercials Other 2012 2013

2013 : +11% YTY

Thousands

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment in Los Angeles County

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Thousands

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Professional & Business Services Employment

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura

Thousands

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

slide-37
SLIDE 37

20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Los Angeles County Orange County San Diego County

Kyser Center for Economic Research

So Cal Aerospace Products Manufacturing Employment

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Source: Boeing & Airbus Company Websites 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Boeing Airbus

Boeing & Airbus Orders

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Technology Employment Goods & Services Sectors-LA County

Industry Dec-12 Dec-13 YTY %

Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing 41,100 40,000

  • 2.7%

Aerospace Product & Parts Manufacturing 38,400 37,500

  • 2.3%

Pharmaceutical & Medicine Manufacturing 7,400 7,800 5.4% Computer Systems Design & Related Services 28,800 28,600

  • 0.7%

Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting Serv 48,900 53,100 8.6% Scientific Research & Development Services 16,300 16,800 3.1%

TOTAL 180,900 183,800 1.6%

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

slide-40
SLIDE 40

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Los Angeles County Apparel Employment

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Apparel Manufacturing Apparel et al Wholesalers Thousands

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

slide-41
SLIDE 41

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Global Insight

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Value of Manufacturing Output – California

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods

$ Billions (in 2005 Dollars)

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Leisure & Hospitality Employment

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura

Thousands

slide-43
SLIDE 43

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Hotel Occupancy Rates

Source: PKF Consulting

Occupancy rates (percentage)

40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Los Angeles Co. Orange Co. San Diego Co.

slide-44
SLIDE 44

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Southern California Retail Employment

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura

Thousands

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Real Estate Markets

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Source: California Association of REALTORS

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Median Prices Existing Single-Family Homes

County 12-Dec 13-Dec YTY % Change Los Angeles $367,400 $439,590 19.6% Orange County $582,930 $677,660 16.3% San Bernardino $158,540 $198,890 25.5% Riverside County $251,520 $310,020 23.3% Ventura $446,150 $535,180 20.0% San Diego $418,290 $479,690 14.7%

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Source: California Association of REALTORS

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Unsold Inventory (Months) Existing Single-Family Homes

County 12-Dec 13-Dec Los Angeles 2.4 3.0 Orange County 2.7 2.9 San Bernardino 3.3 3.6 Riverside County 3.1 4.0 Ventura 3.1 2.8 San Diego 3.0 3.6

slide-48
SLIDE 48

35% 30% 48% 44% 18% 10% 17% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino 2012 2013 Source: California Association of REALTORS (Dec. 2012 vs. Dec. 2013) CA: 16%

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Distressed Sales by County

slide-49
SLIDE 49

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County

Source: CIRB, CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC

10 12 12 10 8 3 2 2 2 4 4 5 6 11 15 14 16 13 10 3 5 8 9 12 16 21

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Multi-Family Single-Family

Permits issued, thousands

slide-50
SLIDE 50

6 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 6 4 5 3 5 5 2 1 2 3 3 5 6 7

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Multi-Family Single-Family

Permits issued, thousands

Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County

slide-51
SLIDE 51

36 44 45 33 16 6 5 5 4 4 6 10 15 7 9 6 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Multi-Family Single-Family

Permits issued, thousands

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Residential Building Permits Issued in Inland Empire

Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC

slide-52
SLIDE 52

Note: For Apartments with > 100 units

Source: Real Facts; CA Real Estate Research Council

Kyser Center for Economic Research

L.A. Five-County Region Apartment Vacancy Rates & Average Rental Rates

$1,200 $1,250 $1,300 $1,350 $1,400 $1,450 $1,500 $1,550 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Vacancy Rates Rental Rates

slide-53
SLIDE 53

2.0 6.0 10.0 14.0 18.0 22.0 26.0 30.0 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Source: Cushman and Wakefield

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Office Vacancy Rates – Southern California

Percent vacancy, quarterly averages

slide-54
SLIDE 54

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Industrial Vacancy Rates – Southern California

Percent vacant, quarterly averages

Source: Cushman and Wakefield

slide-55
SLIDE 55

Forecast

Kyser Center for Economic Research

slide-56
SLIDE 56

1.7% 2.1% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 2.0% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County

2013 2014 2015

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs

Southern California Outlook 2014-15

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

slide-57
SLIDE 57

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Los Angeles County Employment

Annual average in thousands, 2012 benchmark 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 4,100 4,200 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

slide-58
SLIDE 58

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Orange County Employment

Annual average in thousands, 2012 benchmark 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14f 15f Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate

slide-59
SLIDE 59

Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Inland Empire Employment

Annual average in thousands, 2012 benchmark 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14f '15f Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate

slide-60
SLIDE 60

Kyser Center for Economic Research

  • 0.9%
  • 0.3%

0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 3.6% 5.3% 6.0%

  • 2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Information Government Other Services Education Transportation & Utilities Retail Trade Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Total Nonfarm Job Growth Leisure & Hospitality Wholesale Trade

  • Admin. & Support

Health Services Prof'l Scientific & Tech. Mangement of Enterprises Construction

L.A. 5-County Employment Growth, 2014

Total nonfarm job growth forecast for 2014, percent change: +1.8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC

slide-61
SLIDE 61

Kyser Center for Economic Research

Rank Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 1 Leisure & Hosp Construction Construction Leisure & Hosp 2 Admin & Supp Admin & Supp Leisure & Hosp Admin & Supp 3 Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans/Ware/Util 4 Prof, Sci, Tech

  • Mfg. - Durable

Education Retail Trade 5 Education Leisure & Hosp Trans/Warehouse Wholesale Trade

2014 Top Five Southern California Industries by % Gains in Employment

slide-62
SLIDE 62

Kyser Center for Economic Research

  • Local Job Growth: 1.2-2.9%, U-Rates Decline
  • Job Totals Short of Pre-Recession Peak
  • Led by:
  • Health Care
  • Leisure and Hospitality
  • Professional Scientific and Technical Svcs
  • Construction

Forecast Summary

slide-63
SLIDE 63

Kyser Center for Economic Research

  • US & California: near-trend growth rates
  • Consumer Spending & Trade Improving
  • Housing Market Gains
  • Expanding Business Sector
  • Risks:
  • Slower than expected global growth
  • Fed winding down policies

Forecast Summary

Thank You!