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Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook
September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater – Deputy Director
The forecast was revised slightly downward from June
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Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater Deputy Director The forecast was revised slightly downward from June 2 General Fund Revenue Forecast 3 Forecast Revisions Corporate income
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General Fund Revenue Forecast
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Forecast Revisions
- Corporate income tax -- small downward
revision to last year’s collections
- Slightly lower cash fund revenue this summer
- Economic risks increased this quarter -- not in
revisions but watching closely
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Consumer spending is supporting continued economic expansion
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Production vs. Consumption Indicators
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Leading economic indicators suggest continued expansion, but at a slower rate
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Leading Economic Indicators
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This forecast is conservative and comparable to independent benchmarks
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Benchmarks
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Budget capacity is limited by the TABOR cap
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FY21 Budget Implications
- Revenue is above the TABOR cap, limiting budget growth.
- This means less available in new funds for next year’s budget (FY
2020-21) compared with prior two years.
- Although last year’s topline growth also was limited by TABOR, the net
new money available was much higher due in part to the local share for school finance being stronger.
- This took an expenditure off our books and freed up more than
$350 million in the FY 2019-20 budget.
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