Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 20, 2019 Lauren - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director 1

The forecast was revised down slightly from September 2

General Fund Revenue Forecast +2.9% 3

Economic indicators suggest continued economic growth 4

Consumer Expectations Remain Strong 5 Source: University of Michigan - Surveys of Consumers

Manufacturing Remains Weak 6 Source: Institute for Supply Management

Colorado Wage Growth Continues to Exceed Inflation 7 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

The forecast is conservative and comparable to independent benchmarks 8

OSPB Forecast Is Conservative GDP - National 9

OSPB Forecast Is Comparable Personal Income - Colorado 10

Budget growth is limited by the TABOR Cap 11

General Fund Capped at Half of Last Year’s Growth 12

Operating Pressures Crowd out Investment 13

Important to Find Base Savings Fiscal Responsibility Package $238 Million Saved • ($238) million Total Fund • ($73) million General Fund • 3 categories: a. Reduce under-utilized resources and reversions b. Consolidate or streamline for budget efficiency and impact c. Reallocate spending to a more appropriate funding source 14

Budget Sensitive to Changes in Cash Funds 15

Budget Sensitive to TABOR Surplus Level 16

Questions? 17