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Dynamics and implications of Canadas increasing reliance on emerging, expanding and established flatfish fisheries Jonathan A. D. Fisher , Arnault Le Bris, Devin Flawd, Brynn Devine, Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and

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Dynamics and implications of Canada’s increasing reliance on emerging, expanding and established flatfish fisheries

Jonathan A. D. Fisher, Arnault Le Bris, Devin Flawd, Brynn Devine, Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute of Memorial University of

  • Newfoundland. PO Box 4920, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

Jonathan.fisher@mi.mun.ca Dominique Robert, Institut des sciences de la mer, Université du Québec à Rimouski, CP 3300, Rimouski, Québec G5L 3A1, Canada

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Landings value (millions) 10 20 30 40 50 60

Atlantic halibut Pacific halibut

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Landings value (millions) 20 40 60 80

Greenland halibut (Atlantic) Greenland halibut (Arctic)

Some recent flatfish dynamics (Canadian halibut landings)

Landed values from DFO Landed values from DFO, Nunavut Fisheries Management Board

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SLIDE 3

Dominant flatfishes in Atlantic Canada

ECNASAP (1995) data via R. Pettipas, DFO Mean number per tow (1970-1994)

North too…

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Canadian landings (mt)

104 105 106

Canadian groundfish landings (non-flatfish)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Canadian landings (mt)

104 105 106

Canadian groundfish landings (non-flatfish) Canadian flatfish landings

  • Avg. 55% American

plaice per year (1960-1991)

  • Avg. 66%

Atlantic cod per year (1960-1991)

Canadian Atlantic groundfish dynamics 1960-2016

99.8% 95.9% 85.4% 96.4% 95.8%

% population declines (1960s-1990s)

Data from NAFO

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Groundfish collapses were followed by lucrative

  • pportunities
  • In Newfoundland and Labrador, shrimp, snow crab, turbot currently dominate

landings value (80% of total)

– cold water preferences and strong contributions to food webs as predators and prey = potentially impacted first/strongest by changing ocean conditions?

Northern shrimp (V. Howse, CFER) Snow crab (L. Wheeland, CFER) Greenland halibut

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Past economic transition from finfish to shellfish

Early 1990s Early 1990s Early 1990s Early 2000s Early 2000s Early 2000s

Newfoundland and Labrador landed values from DFO

  • Social and cultural

importance too

  • Landings and values

are used to document changes in fisheries, not stock sizes

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SLIDE 7

Atlantic regional warming observations

“Bottom water temperatures off the East Coast of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) have been increasing since the mid-1990s and are expected to remain high or continue to increase (more gradually) for more than a decade to about 2030…”

  • DFO. 2017. Oceanographic conditions in

the Atlantic zone in 2016. DFO Can. Sci.

  • Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/031.
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“Since the mid to late 2000s signals of a change in community structure started to emerge. Shellfish started to decline, and traditional groundfishes began to increase…Recent trends suggest that the system may be reverting back to a groundfish-dominated fish community, but the future structure of that ecosystem will not necessarily be similar to that of the previous groundfish-dominated ecosystem.”

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Northeast coast of Newfoundland (NAFO 2J3KL)

  • DFO. (2014) Short-Term Stock Prospects for Cod, Crab and Shrimp in the Newfoundland and

Labrador Region (Divisions 2J3KL). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/049.

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SLIDE 10

Towards additional fisheries/economic transitions?

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  • Consistent increases in

flatfish volume (1% per year) and flatfish value (2% per year) within total groundfish landings since 1990 (DFO data)

  • Atlantic halibut, Greenland

halibut, ‘flounders (ns)’ ranked 1,2,3 price per kg since 2013 (DFO data)

  • Prop. flatfish in groundfish

landings vol. now highest (NAFO data)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Proportion flatfish of total groundfish 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Landings volume Landing value

Why consider flatfish fishery dynamics now?

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  • History of increased effort on flatfish when other
  • ptions are limited – 1990s Greenland halibut

NAFO (2017) Greenland halibut stock assessment & management strategy evaluation. SCS Doc. 17-15

Why consider flatfish dynamics now?

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  • History of increased effort on flatfish when other
  • ptions are limited – 1990s Greenland halibut

NAFO (2017) Greenland halibut stock assessment & management strategy evaluation. SCS Doc. 17-15

Why consider flatfish dynamics now?

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Return towards past landings composition?

  • 1960-2016 Canadian

flatfish landings data from NAFO (9 species/groups)

  • Bray-Curtis similarity

through time

  • Continued divergence

from landings composition

  • Similar temporal

patterns within regional scale (e.g., GSL, NE NL, Grand Banks, Scotian Shelf

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Shannon Diversity 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Proportion of landings volume 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

American plaice Greenland halibut

Landed values from NAFO

What drove changes in landings composition?

  • Diversity of

landings composition lowest in recent years

  • Catches driven

by few species

  • Increasing

importance of Greenland halibut

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Are there other ways to evaluate past and current flatfish fisheries’ performance?

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Fryexell 1

  • Assumptions
  • Can bio-economic theory be applied to evaluate fisheries efficiency?
  • Developed a Ricker-recruitment index, linked to price flexibility,

fisheries effort

  • Question: how does price change affect harvest and where do fisheries
  • perate along the equilibrium curve? Can they derive targets for

rebuilding?

  • Data needs for evaluation: normalized landings, normalized price/kg

(adjusted for consumer price index)

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SLIDE 18

Feed cheap fish to the world Let them eat cake!

Fryxell et al. (2017) Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries. PNAS.

  • Provides targets for fisheries rebuilding
  • Illustrates how some stocks may be fished towards ‘extinction’
  • Can be tested with widely available data…
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Empirical support for predictions?

  • Authors used 50 years of

US Atlantic cod data, Pollock data from NOAA/NMFS

Fryxell et al. (2017) Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries. PNAS.

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Atlantic flatfish data to test this bio-economic model?

  • Canadian

landings 1960- 2010

  • 8 species

flatfish complex

  • Thought

experiment…

Walsh et al. (2014) Atlantic flatfish fisheries. In: Flatfishes: biology and exploitation

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How do Atlantic flatfish landings data fit within this model?

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Price Harvest

Price 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Harvest 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Price 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Harvest 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Data derived from Walsh et al. (2014) Atlantic flatfish

  • fisheries. In: Flatfishes: biology and exploitation

Aggregate flatfish landings, $ adjusted for consumer price index

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Canadian Greenland halibut landings (mt)

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Greenland halibut – changing distribution of quotas and catch

Southern stock Northern stock

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Flatfish fisheries expansions – Greenland halibut beyond NAFO 0A?

Brynn Devine, unpublished data.

  • Collaborative fisheries explorations near northern

communities outside NAFO (2013-2015)

  • Waters <900 m sampled, few Greenland halibut

OA

Jones Sound Resolute Arctic Bay

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SLIDE 24

Flatfish fisheries expansions – Greenland halibut beyond NAFO 0A?

  • Cold ~shallow northern waters

may explain absence of Greenland halibut near coastal communities

  • ~2 degrees below established

fishing areas

Brynn Devine, unpublished data.

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Flatfish fisheries expansions – Atlantic halibut benefits beyond Canadian fisheries?

  • 3N Canadian and international

landings

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Atlantic halibut landings (mt)

200 400 600 800

Canada International

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SLIDE 26
  • 3M Canadian and international

landings

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Atlantic halibut landings (mt)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Canada International

Flatfish fisheries expansions – Atlantic halibut benefits beyond Canadian fisheries?

Equal to 2017 Gulf of

  • St. Lawrence

quota!

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SLIDE 27

Groundfish total Canadian landings (mt)

200000 400000 600000 800000

Proportion of flatfish in total groundfish landings

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

What future for flatfish fisheries in Atlantic Canada?

??? 1960 1993 2016

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Summary and Implications

  • Changing ocean conditions in eastern Canada lead to new questions on

sustainability and future fisheries

  • Flatfish represent a larger proportion of Groundfish landings, now most

concentrated among fewest species (Atlantic halibut, Greenland halibut = long-lived flatfishes) = narrow portfolio

  • Flatfishes are increasingly explored as lucrative fishing opportunities
  • Few signs of flatfish fisheries return to former composition or dominance
  • Future unknown; expanding portfolio requires recoveries; interactions with
  • ther established/emerging fisheries a concern for future (yellowtail

flounder > redfish > cod)

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SLIDE 29

Acknowledgements