Down-sizing: exploring the shift of Sydneysiders from the metro to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Down-sizing: exploring the shift of Sydneysiders from the metro to regional cities across NSW

Keenan Jackson September 13, 2018

The Big Picture

Australia has experienced extraordinary population growth over the last decade

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Added 6 million people since the turn of the century to reach 25 million

International migration driving substantial growth

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2004 – NSW Net Overseas Migration: 46,000 2017 – NSW Net Overseas Migration: 93,000

For most of the last decade, NSW was growing slower than the national average

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Mining boom transition obvious from regional growth rates

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Shifting tides of growth

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Annual Population Growth Rate

Economic transition to services and knowledge favours east coast

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National employment trends by industry – Cumulative growth (‘000) since Feb 2010

Greater Sydney absorbing most of NSW’s growth

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Between 2006 and 2016, NSW added almost a million people. Over three quarters (78%) was absorbed by Greater Sydney.

Divergence in growth since 2011

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Greater Sydney Regional NSW Annual Population Growth Rate

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Inner Sydney and south western growth areas experienced fastest growth

Out-migration from Greater Sydney

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Marginal ncrease in migration from Greater Sydney to the regions

Between 2011 and 2016 period, 103,000 residents migrated from Greater Sydney to Regional NSW. Up 12,000 from the 91,000 who migrated between 2006 and 2011.

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Proximity to Sydney still a key factor

Albury Armidale Bathurst Dubbo Orange Tamworth Wagga Wagga Wollongong Newcastle Lake Macquarie Mid-Coast Wingecarribee Shoalhaven 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 100 200 300 400 500 600 Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Distance from Sydney's CBD (km)

In-migration vs Distance from Sydney

General movements from Greater Sydney locations in nearest proximity

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22% Newcastle migration from Central Coast SA4 25% of Wollongong migration from Sutherland SA4 23% of Bathurst migration from Sydney – Outer West SA4 22% of Wingecarribee migration from Sydney – Outer South SA4 41% Lake Macquarie migration from Central Coast SA4 SYDNEY

Armidale Bathurst Dubbo Orange Tamworth Wagga Wagga Wollongong Newcastle Lake Macquarie Mid-Coast Wingecarribee Shoalhaven 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Estimated Resident Population 2016

In-migration vs City Size

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City size shows some correlation

Albury Armidale Bathurst Dubbo Orange Tamworth Wagga Wagga Wollongong Newcastle Lake Macquarie Mid-Coast Wingecarribee Shoalhaven R² = 0.2965 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Median weekly mortgage to income

In-migration vs Housing (Mortgage) Affordability

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Housing affordability not as strong a driver

Most places have cheaper housing than Sydney, people still willing to trade

• ff affordability for

access

Albury Armidale Bathurst DubboOrange Tamworth Wagga Wagga Wollongong Newcastle Lake Macquarie Mid-Coast Wingecarribee Shoalhaven R² = 0.2941 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Median weekly rent to income

In-migration vs Rental Affordability

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However, rental market shows stronger link

Most places have cheaper housing than Sydney, people still willing to trade

• ff affordability for

access

Albury Armidale Bathurst Dubbo Orange Tamworth Wagga Wagga Wollongong Newcastle Lake Macquarie Mid-Coast Wingecarribee Shoalhaven R² = 0.3983 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Unemployment Rate

In-migration vs Unemployment

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In inland areas, the labour market is very important

Strong correlation between unemployment rates and in- migration from Sydney

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In inland areas, the labour market is very important

Strong correlation between employment growth and in-migration from Sydney

Armidale Bathurst Dubbo Orange Tamworth Wagga Wagga Wollongong Newcastle Lake Macquarie Mid-Coast Wingecarribee Shoalhaven R² = 0.4153 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Employment Growth 2011 - 2016

In-migration vs Employment Growth

However, the migration story from Sydney is more nuanced

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Retirement destinations

36-40% of all movers to Mid-Coast and Shoalhaven were 60 years or over; participation rates of movers <50%

Young working professionals

Newcastle - 31% young workforce age (25-34); 25% high income earners; Lower child care rates; 10% Professional services

Middle class families

Lake Macquarie – 40% child care rates; lower education rates, higher share middle income earners

Different Typologies

Military Bases

13% of employed movers to Wagga Wagga were working in defence

Large Hospitals

18% of employed movers to Orange were working in Hospitals and Medical care

Regional Universities

A quarter of all movers to Armidale were tertiary student aged; 45% of movers were degree educated; 30% employed in education

Evocities

Evocities

ARMIDALE BATHURST ORANGE DUBBO WAGGA WAGGA ALBURY TAMWORTH SYDNEY BRISBANE MELBOURNE CANBERRA

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Evocities is a collection of NSW’s largest inland regional cities. It incorporates the cities of:

• Albury
• Armidale
• Bathurst
• Dubbo
• Orange
• Tamworth
• Wagga

In 2016, the cities had a combined population of almost 300,000 residents.

Domestic in-migration levels didn’t change much, but international migration up

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Level of domestic in-migration 2011 2016 Evocities 48,465 48,492  Albury 7,902 8,735  Armidale 5,733 5,465  Bathurst 6,846 6,452  Dubbo 6,396 6,384  Orange 6,648 7,043  Tamworth 8,320 8,007  Wagga Wagga 10,202 9,864  Level of international migration 2011 2016 Evocities 5,938 7,847  Albury 1,219 1,075  Armidale 1,025 1,365  Bathurst 519 614  Dubbo 498 879  Orange 666 852  Tamworth 469 1,193  Wagga Wagga 1,421 1,847 

Most locations were attracting a higher share from metro areas

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Greater Sydney Greater Brisbane Greater Melbourne 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 Evocities 20.9% 22.1% 3.8% 4.1% 3.6% 4.5% Albury 9.3% 11.4% 2.0% 3.0% 10.8% 11.9% Armidale 15.7% 14.8% 5.2% 6.1% 2.0% 3.1% Bathurst 35.4% 36.9% 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% Dubbo 20.0% 24.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.4% 2.5% Orange 26.3% 28.0% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.9% Tamworth 17.8% 18.4% 5.4% 5.3% 1.2% 1.8% Wagga Wagga 15.5% 15.8% 4.4% 5.2% 4.2% 5.0%

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Still sponge cities but almost a quarter of in- migration drawn from Greater Sydney

Large numbers came from outer LGAs such as Central Coast, Blacktown and Penrith.

In-migration to Evocities 2011-2016 0 to 200 200 to 400 400 to 600 600 to 800 More than 800

Tamworth Wagga Wagga Albury Dubbo Bathurst Orange

SYDNEY

Armidale

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Who moved in?

Generally, they were more educated, slightly older, more likely to be Managers or Professionals and higher income earners Metro market movers influenced this change

Median age

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New resident between 2006 and 2011 28 Overall resident base 2016 37

Income >$1,500/week

15%

New resident between 2006 and 2011 11% Overall resident base 2016 14%

Unemployment Rate

9%

New resident between 2006 and 2011 8% Overall resident base 2016 6%

LF Participation Rate

69%

New resident between 2006 and 2011 68% Overall resident base 2016 64%

Post School Qualification

59%

New resident between 2006 and 2011 52% Overall resident base 2016 53%

Manager or Professional

36%

New resident between 2006 and 2011 34% Overall resident base 2016 32%

Bachelor Degree or Higher

24%

New resident between 2006 and 2011 20% Overall resident base 2016 18%

2006-2011 2011-2016

Level of domestic in-migration 6,648 7,043 Level of international in- migration 666 852 Median age of new residents (domestic) 30 31 Share of new residents from Greater Sydney 26.3% 28.0% Largest source LGAs Cabonne, Dubbo, Blayney, Bathurst, Parkes Cabonne, Blayney, Dubbo, Bathurst, Parkes Largest source LGAs - metro Blacktown, Central Coast, Penrith, Brisbane, Blue Mountains Central Coast, Blacktown, Inner West, Blue Mountains, Penrith

Orange

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Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016

Where new migrants located 2016 0 to 50 50 to 100 100 to 200 200 to 400 More than 400

Economy built on professionals

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Economy built on professionals

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Strong pipeline of construction

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50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Orange Bathurst $'000

Non-Registered Building Approvals 2011-2016

In Summary

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Australia has seen unprecedented population growth unseen in half a century, driven by international migration NSW grew below the national average for most of the last decade, but has experienced recent growth, most going into Greater Sydney. Despite this substantial growth, regional areas have only experienced a minor increase in migration from Sydney. Most of this in the big coastal cities. Access to Sydney still a big driver. People increasingly desire connection to international and domestic gateways, and want to be able to easily have metro experiences

In Summary

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Jobs still key in inland cities. In-migration correlates with unemployment rates and rents, but not necessarily mortgages. Public sector employment and investment is often significantly aligned with development in many Evocities, including State Government Offices, Hospitals, Tertiary Education facilities, Correctional facilities and military bases. Pipeline of investment important for confidence and migration attraction In-migration from Sydney into inland cities is important for their economies as generally they are more educated, slightly older, more likely to be Managers/Professionals and earn higher income.

To change the current trends, requires considerable intervention

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20 year Economic Vision for Regional NSW

+805,000 people in regional NSW (not Wollongong or Newcastle) = 1.3% p.a. Last ten years 0.8%p.a. +260,000 jobs??? 32% new job to new resident ratio? Currently 42% in regional NSW (with Wollongong and Newcastle)

Is this a viable vision?