Down-sizing: exploring the shift of Sydneysiders from the metro to - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Down-sizing: exploring the shift of Sydneysiders from the metro to regional cities across NSW Keenan Jackson September 13, 2018

The Big Picture

Australia has experienced extraordinary population growth over the last decade Added 6 million people since the turn of the century to reach 25 million 3

International migration driving substantial growth 2004 – NSW Net Overseas Migration: 46,000 2017 – NSW Net Overseas Migration: 93,000 4

For most of the last decade, NSW was growing slower than the national average 5

Mining boom transition obvious from regional growth rates 6

Shifting tides of growth Annual Population Growth Rate 7

Economic transition to services and knowledge favours east coast National employment trends by industry – Cumulative growth (‘000) since Feb 2010 8

Greater Sydney absorbing most of NSW’s growth Between 2006 and 2016, NSW added almost a million people. Over three quarters (78%) was absorbed by Greater Sydney. 9

Divergence in growth since 2011 Annual Population Growth Rate Greater Sydney Regional NSW 10

Inner Sydney and south western growth areas experienced fastest growth 11

Out-migration from Greater Sydney

Marginal ncrease in migration from Greater Sydney to the regions Between 2011 and 2016 period, 103,000 residents migrated from Greater Sydney to Regional NSW. Up 12,000 from the 91,000 who migrated between 2006 and 2011. 13

Proximity to In-migration vs Distance from Sydney Sydney still 12,000 a key factor Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Wollongong 10,000 Lake Macquarie 8,000 Shoalhaven 6,000 Wingecarribee Mid-Coast Newcastle 4,000 Dubbo Bathurst 2,000 Orange Wagga Wagga Albury Tamworth Armidale 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Distance from Sydney's CBD (km) 14

General movements from Greater Sydney locations in nearest proximity 41% Lake Macquarie 22% Newcastle migration from Central migration from Central Coast SA4 Coast SA4 23% of Bathurst migration from Sydney – Outer West SA4 SYDNEY 25% of Wollongong 22% of Wingecarribee migration from Sutherland migration from Sydney – SA4 Outer South SA4 15

City size In-migration vs City Size shows some 12,000 correlation Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Wollongong 10,000 Lake Macquarie 8,000 Shoalhaven Wingecarribee 6,000 Mid-Coast Newcastle 4,000 Wagga Wagga Bathurst 2,000 Dubbo Orange Tamworth Armidale 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Estimated Resident Population 2016 16

Housing In-migration vs Housing (Mortgage) Affordability affordability 12,000 not as Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Wollongong strong a 10,000 driver Lake Macquarie 8,000 Shoalhaven 6,000 Wingecarribee Most places have Mid-Coast Newcastle cheaper housing 4,000 than Sydney, people Wagga Wagga still willing to trade Bathurst 2,000 Orange off affordability for R² = 0.2965 Dubbo Tamworth Albury access Armidale 0 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% Median weekly mortgage to income 17

However, In-migration vs Rental Affordability rental 12,000 market Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Wollongong shows 10,000 stronger link Lake Macquarie 8,000 Shoalhaven 6,000 Wingecarribee Most places have Mid-Coast Newcastle cheaper housing R² = 0.2941 4,000 than Sydney, people Wagga Wagga still willing to trade Bathurst 2,000 DubboOrange off affordability for Tamworth Albury access Armidale 0 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% Median weekly rent to income 18

In inland In-migration vs Unemployment areas, the 12,000 labour Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Wollongong 10,000 market is Lake Macquarie very 8,000 important Shoalhaven 6,000 Wingecarribee Mid-Coast Newcastle Strong correlation 4,000 between Bathurst unemployment 2,000 Wagga Wagga Orange R² = 0.3983 Dubbo rates and in- Albury Tamworth Armidale migration from 0 Sydney 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Unemployment Rate 19

In inland In-migration vs Employment Growth areas, the 12,000 labour Level of in-migration from Greater Sydney Wollongong 10,000 market is very Lake Macquarie 8,000 important Shoalhaven 6,000 Wingecarribee Mid-Coast Newcastle Strong correlation 4,000 between Wagga Wagga employment growth R² = 0.4153 Bathurst 2,000 Orange Dubbo Tamworth and in-migration Armidale from Sydney 0 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Employment Growth 2011 - 2016 20

However, the migration story from Sydney is more nuanced Different Typologies Retirement destinations Military Bases 36-40% of all movers to Mid-Coast and Shoalhaven 13% of employed movers to Wagga Wagga were 60 years or over; participation rates of movers were working in defence <50% Large Hospitals Young working professionals 18% of employed movers to Orange were Newcastle - 31% young workforce age (25-34); 25% working in Hospitals and Medical care high income earners; Lower child care rates; 10% Regional Universities Professional services A quarter of all movers to Armidale were Middle class families tertiary student aged; 45% of movers were Lake Macquarie – 40% child care rates; lower degree educated; 30% employed in education rates, higher share middle income earners education 21

Evocities

BRISBANE Evocities ARMIDALE Evocities is a collection of NSW’s largest inland TAMWORTH regional cities. It incorporates the cities of: DUBBO • Albury ORANGE • Armidale • Bathurst BATHURST SYDNEY • Dubbo WAGGA WAGGA • Orange CANBERRA • Tamworth ALBURY • Wagga In 2016, the cities had a combined population of MELBOURNE almost 300,000 residents. 23

Domestic in- migration levels didn’t change much, but international migration up Level of Level of domestic 2011 2016 international 2011 2016 in-migration migration Evocities 48,465 48,492  Evocities 5,938 7,847  Albury 7,902 8,735  Albury 1,219 1,075  Armidale 5,733 5,465  Armidale 1,025 1,365  Bathurst 6,846 6,452  Bathurst 519 614  Dubbo 6,396 6,384  Dubbo 498 879  Orange 6,648 7,043  Orange 666 852  Tamworth 8,320 8,007  Tamworth 469 1,193  Wagga Wagga 10,202 9,864  Wagga Wagga 1,421 1,847  24

Most locations were attracting a higher share from metro areas Greater Sydney Greater Brisbane Greater Melbourne 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 Evocities 20.9% 22.1% 3.8% 4.1% 3.6% 4.5% Albury 9.3% 11.4% 2.0% 3.0% 10.8% 11.9% Armidale 15.7% 14.8% 5.2% 6.1% 2.0% 3.1% Bathurst 35.4% 36.9% 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% Dubbo 20.0% 24.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.4% 2.5% Orange 26.3% 28.0% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.9% Tamworth 17.8% 18.4% 5.4% 5.3% 1.2% 1.8% Wagga Wagga 15.5% 15.8% 4.4% 5.2% 4.2% 5.0% 25

Still sponge cities but almost a quarter of in- Armidale migration Tamworth drawn from Greater Sydney Dubbo In-migration to Evocities Orange 2011-2016 Large numbers Bathurst SYDNEY 0 to 200 came from outer 200 to 400 LGAs such as Wagga Wagga 400 to 600 Central Coast, 600 to 800 Albury Blacktown and More than 800 Penrith. 26

Who Median age Post School Qualification Bachelor Degree or Higher moved in? 30 59% 24% New resident between New resident between New resident between 2006 and 2011 28 2006 and 2011 52% 2006 and 2011 20% Overall resident base 2016 37 Overall resident base 2016 53% Overall resident base 2016 18% Generally, they were LF Participation Rate Unemployment Rate more educated, 69% 9% slightly older, more New resident between New resident between likely to be 2006 and 2011 68% 2006 and 2011 8% Managers or Overall resident base 2016 64% Overall resident base 2016 6% Professionals and higher income Manager or Professional Income >$1,500/week earners 36% 15% Metro market New resident between New resident between movers influenced 2006 and 2011 34% 2006 and 2011 11% this change Overall resident base 2016 32% Overall resident base 2016 14% 27

Where new migrants located Orange 2016 0 to 50 50 to 100 2006-2011 2011-2016 100 to 200 200 to 400 Level of domestic in-migration 6,648 7,043 More than 400 Level of international in- 666 852 migration Median age of new residents 30 31 (domestic) Share of new residents from 26.3% 28.0% Greater Sydney Cabonne, Dubbo, Cabonne, Largest source LGAs Blayney, Blayney, Dubbo, Bathurst, Parkes Bathurst, Parkes Blacktown, Central Coast, Central Coast, Blacktown, Inner Largest source LGAs - metro Penrith, West, Blue Brisbane, Blue Mountains, Mountains Penrith Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016 28

Economy built on professionals 29

Economy built on professionals 30

Strong pipeline of construction Non-Registered Building Approvals 2011-2016 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 $'000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Orange Bathurst 31