disruptive implications EAT Forum 2019, Stockholm Jon Freeman, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Novel food technologies at scale – disruptive implications

EAT Forum 2019, Stockholm

Jon Freeman, Research Group Director, RAND Europe 12 June 2019

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

For starters…

• With your neighbour, please

discuss:

• What is your interest in the field
• f novel foods?
• What challenges and/or
• pportunities do you think novel

foods might pose to sustainable food systems?

• What are some barriers to the

introduction of novel foods at scale? How might that change?

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

We propose to use futures and foresight methods to assess how novel foods may be brought to scale

monsitj - Fotolia

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Sustainability

• Health
• Wealth
• Environment

A macro-level systems map can help understand where disruptions may

• ccur

Plant Animal Lab Land Water

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

The core assumption of the study

Changes in technology in the production base… …could lead to improved sustainability outcomes inside and outside of the food system But it is quite hard to make direct link from a technology to sustainability impacts beyond the food system. We propose to break these topics apart to facilitate the analysis.

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Overarching concept of analysis

System Descriptio n Food system scenario analysis Which technology clusters are most likely to be taken forward? What are the wider technology convergences and food system

• utcomes?

Working with experts on food systems and technology from business, academia and government Implications for sustainability:

• Health
• Wealth
• Environment

Tech Horizon Scan Publicatio n Activity STREA M Identify Technology Clusters Core Tech: a novel food itself e.g. lab cultured meat Enabling Tech: supports the production system e.g. LED lights for algal culture Literature Review Reporting

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Expanded systems maps can help identify applications

• f core and

enabling technologies

Example: extended map for cultured meat

Plant Animal Lab Land Water Meat Fish Plant Milk/ dairy Cultured

• r In

Vitro Meat Stem cells Bioreactor Stem cell technology Scaffolding Cellular agricultur e Animal cell (biopsy, genetic mod) Fermentatio n Biopsy Genetically modified cells 3D printing Biofabricatio n

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Example: expanded system map for algae production

Plant Animal Lab Land Water Micro- algae/ cyanoba cteria Macro- algae (seaweed) Aquatic Open- air system Closed system Photobioreactors Genetic mod or editing (.e.g. CRISPR) Lighting (e.g. optical fibres, diodes) Strain selection Floatation Heating/cooling system Centrifugation Hybrid system Flat-plate Tubular Internally- illuminated Vertical column Coating (prevent adhesion to PBR) Filtration (screens) Natural still water (e.g. pond) PBR Polybags Water Make-up media (e.g. nitrate, urea) Aeration technique Precipitation Ion exchange Ultrasonic vibration Drying (solar, freeze, spray, drum, cooking) Grinding INPUTS PROCESSES OUTPUTS

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Horizon scanning methods help identify emerging novel food technology, trends and future concepts

Cultured meat

Known technologie s Emerging technologie s Emerging concepts (?)

Stem cell technology Fermentation Animal cell biopsy De- cellularised plant scaffolds Bio-farms at commercial scale ‘Pro- sumption’: growing meat at home Bio-farms run by individuals

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Analysis of publication activity indicates how emergent a topic is

Example: publication activity for cultured meat in the past five years

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Example: publication activity for algae technologies and food in the past five years

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Stem cell and cultured meat 3D printing and cultured meat

Novel meat technologies are relatively nascent in the context of the underpinning technology

Cultured meat examples – general publications

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Stem cell and cultured meat 3D printing and cultured meat

Novel meat technologies are relatively nascent in the context of the underpinning technology

Cultured meat examples – academic publications

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Algae and bioreactors and food Algae and CRISPR and food

CRISPR is a relatively emergent technology with respect to algae and food

Algae examples – general publications

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Combining this analysis enables clusters of technology to be identified

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Core Technologies: a novel food itself e.g. lab cultured meat Enabling Technologies: support the production system e.g. LED lights for algal culture

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Technologies of interest can be analysed for impact and likely uptake

Uptake

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Scenario analysis explores the scale and implications of novel food uptake

• Futures scenarios allow the exploration of different ways in which

technologies could be scaled, and what the beneficial or challenging implications of those technologies might be

• Workshop discussions with experts on food systems and

technologies would , for example, discuss:

– How could diverse technologies converge to support the food system? – What are the likely timescales and conditions for change? – What might sustainability impacts be? – What might the unintended consequences be?

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RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL

Sustainability

• Health
• Wealth
• Environment

Enabling a rigorous analysis of how novel food systems could be scaled, and what the implications might be

Plant Animal Lab Land Water

RAND Europe CONFIDENTIAL