Determinants of large family size in the context of fertility in - PDF document

Determinants of large family size in the context of fertility in India: Evidence from District Level Household Survey Data Introduction Population of India stands at 1.2 billion according to the latest census, 2011, of India. India still is the second most populous country in the world and would overtake China to the top in the near future provided China' population policy would not change drastically (Haub, C and Gribble, J 2011). The population of some of the bigger states in India has populations as big as some of the most populous countries of the world, e.g. the population of Uttar Pradesh is 199.6 million which is more than the population Pakistan, the 6th most populous country in the world. Eight states out of the 36 states and union territories of India constitutes about two third of the total population of India (Fig 1). The most populous state Uttar Pradesh contribute to about 16 .49% of the population, followed by the states of Maharashtra (9.3%), Bihar (8.6%), West Bengal (7.55%), Andhra Pradesh (7%), Madhya Pradesh (6%), Tamil Nadu (5.96%) and Rajasthan (5.67%). Figure.1 . Percentage of Population among the most populous states in India, 2011 1

Source: - Population census 2011 The growth of population as an issue was identified even during the pre-independence period in the country. India is the first developing country to pronounce a population policy to reduce its population growth, soon after its independence, in 1952. Some of the states of the country were able reduce the fertility and thereby reduce the growth rates considerably, while some states still have high fertility rates. In between the census years of 2001 and 2011, India added 181.5 million people to its population, which is very much equivalent to the population of Nigeria in 2015, the 7th most populous country in the world. The decadal growth rate of India during the census period 2001 to 2011 was 17.64%. Of the 8 states, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan four states, viz. Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Rajasthan, have decadal growth rates higher than the national average. In these four states, the decadal growth rates were above 20% i.e., UP (20.09%), Bihar (25.07%), MP (20.3%) and Rajasthan (21.44%). None of the other states with at least 5% of national population has a decadal growth rate more than the national decadal 2

growth rate. It is also interesting to note that decadal growth rates of all other states combined except these four states was 15.53% and was 2 percentage points below the national average decadal growth rate. Figure 2 : Decadal growth rates, 2001 to 2011, of India and the most populous states These four states contribute to about 36.7 % of the total population of India in 2011, while in 2001 this percentage was around 35.5 %. They together contribute to around 43.3% of the total decadal growth of population during the census years of 2001 and 2011. The total fertility rates (TFR) of India in the early 1950s was 5.9 (Haub, C and Gribble, J 2011). Over the years the TFR of the country declined, catching up with the replacement level TFR of 2.1. The estimated TFR for India in 2013 was 2.3. At the state level TFR varies from 1.6 in West Bengal to 3.4 in Bihar (RGI 2013). It is not surprising to note that among the bigger states Bihar (3.4), UP (3.1), MP (2.9) and Rajasthan (2.8) has the highest TFR. Many states of the country have reached a level of replacement level fertility over the years, effectively contributing to the decline in population growth of the country. The future of reduction in the national 3

population growth levels and the TFR depends hugely on the changes in the fertility patters of these four states of the country. In order to device interventions to reduce the fertility it is necessary to understand the factors contributing to high fertility. In this study we are exploring the determinants of women having more than two children in the states of UP, Bihar, MP and Rajasthan. Data and Methods The data for this study is from District Level Household Survey (round 3, 2007-2008) (DLHS -3). DLHS- 3 is a cross sectional survey designed to provide estimates on maternal and child health, family planning, other reproductive health indicators and information on the programmes related with National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). The International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) was designated to carry out the survey for the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. It interviewed ever married women (15-49 years) and unmarried women of the age group 15-24 years at individual level. Information was also collected on the household, Village and the health facilities using separate structured questionnaires. The survey covered all the districts of the country, except for districts of Nagaland, covering a total of 7,20,320 households, 6,43,994 ever married women aged 15-49 years and 1,66,620 unmarried women aged 15-24 years of age. A multi stage sampling procedure was used for this survey. For this study, we used the ever-married women (aged 15-49 years) data file of the states of UP, Bihar, MP and Rajasthan. Women having at least one live birth are considered for this study. Those women having more than two children are considered as “ large family ” . Misreporting of ages in the survey in India is well documented. DLHS-3 also is no better in terms of age misreporting (Borkotoky, K and Unisa, S 2014). Examining the age at marriage, we found that in some reported cases, age at marriages were less than 10 years. Similarly, for the related variable 'age at living with the husband' also had, many reporting ages less than 10 years. Discounting for the possibility of child marriage and to evade the possible misreported data we have considered only women who have 4

started living with their husbands at an age older than 10 years. Henceforth the selected women for the study, ever-married women with at least one live birth who has started living with their husbands after the age of 10, would be referred to as, just, women for our study. Data Analysis : To study the determinants of large family size this paper makes use of frequency tables, cross tabulations and logistic regression. Analysis was done with the help of SPSS version 20.0 and Microsoft Excel 2007. Results Socio demographic characteristics In all the four states most of the women live in the rural areas. Bihar (91.0 %) has the highest percentage of the women living in the rural areas followed by UP (82.0%), Rajasthan (79.7%) and MP (77.2%). The predominant religion in these four states is Hinduism. Islam is another significant religion in this region. The religion of the head of the household of 94.5% in the state of MP is Hinduisms, in Rajasthan the percentage is 90.7%, in Bihar it is 86.7% and in UP the percentage is 82.9%. The Islam is a very significant religion in UP (16.4%). Bihar too has more than 10 % Muslim households. MP has the least percentage with 4.7% Muslim households. More than 15 % of the women hail from Scheduled caste households; in these four states; highest in Bihar with 20.4% and lowest in MP with 15.3%. There is a marked difference in the case of proportion of scheduled tribe among these states. While MP has 24% and Rajasthan has 15.8% scheduled tribe households, the corresponding percentage for Bihar and UP are 2.1% and 1.4% respectively. Table 1: Profile of the ever married women aged 15-49 years of age with at least one live birth Variables Bihar Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Number of women (Weighted) 40594 41225 35483 75677 Figures given in column %s for each of the categories unless specified % Women live in rural areas 91 77.2 79.7 82 5

Religion of the head of the household Hindu 86.4 94.5 90.7 82.9 Muslims 13.3 4.7 7.4 16.4 Others 0.3 0.9 1.9 0.6 Caste of the head of the household Scheduled caste 20.4 15.3 16.7 19.3 Scheduled tribe 2.1 24 15.8 1.4 Other backward class 58.9 42.5 47.8 56.2 None of them/others 18.6 18.1 19.7 23 Education status of the women Not gone to school and under 4 years 72.7 63.6 72.9 66.4 of education 4 to 9 years of schooling 17.2 26.7 18.9 22.1 10 to 14 years of schooling 8.9 6.7 5.6 8.4 More than 15 years of schooling 1.2 3 2.5 3.1 Education status of Husbands Not gone to school and under 4 years 42 34.8 34.9 31.6 of education 4 to 9 years of schooling 27 39 37.1 35.2 10 to 14 years of schooling 22.2 18 19.7 24.2 More than 15 years of schooling 7.2 7.4 8.2 8.6 Don't Know 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.5 Employment status of women Not employed 51.3 44.3 47.2 55.3 Cultivators 10.6 8.6 24.5 22.5 Agricultural laborer 29.5 17 9.2 12.6 Tailors, dress makers, sewers, 0.9 0.9 1.5 2 upholsterers & related worker 6