Design for Safety Risk-Based Ship Design Dr Dimitris Konovessis - PDF document

Design for Safety Risk-Based Ship Design Dr Dimitris Konovessis Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering MJB Technical Talk 28 March 2013 Presentation Outline • Recent Developments in Ship Safety: Goal- Based Approaches and Risk-Based Design • Safety Level (Total Risk) Modelling Flooding Survivability Analysis Fire Safety Analysis Post-Accident Systems Availability Analysis Evacuation and Rescue Analysis • Concluding Remarks 2 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 1

Presentation Outline • Recent Developments in Ship Safety: Goal- Based Approaches and Risk-Based Design • Safety Level (Total Risk) Modelling Flooding Survivability Analysis Fire Safety Analysis Post-Accident Systems Availability Analysis Evacuation and Rescue Analysis • Concluding Remarks 3 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk The Changing Face of Ship Safety Safety Drivers Safety Shipping Society Need for change • escalation in size • public expectation • specialisation for higher safety • higher speed • Increased public • construction materials regard for human Science & • over-capacity life and environment Technology • greater complexity • media coverage • more information • political pressures • phenomenal progress • less time • rapid technological • competition change • manning • better technical • ageing fleet capabilities • innovation potential • cost-effective safety 4 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 2

A New Philosophy “Design for Safety” 5 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Risk is an Inherent Feature in the Maritime Industry! www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 3

Containing Risk Today SOLAS Minimum standards Statistical average Historical risk Compliance with Rules/Regulations www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Deterministic Rules Criteria Estimation GZmax vs. Hs 10 9 8 7 Hs critical (m) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 GZmax (m) www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 4

Deterministic Rules SOLAS ’90 Standard www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Safety Level in Rules is Unknown! 1-Comp standard: High likelihood x Severity?? 2-Comp standard: Lower Likelihood x Severity?? www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 5

B/5 Bulkhead Rules do not always reflect experience 5 New Database 4 Old Database 3 2 1 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Non-dimensional penetration Design Today: Rules-Based Design Logistics Business “Perceived” Risk Needed functions, basic Expected safety level for Owner services, costs, earning potential, all accident categories etc… Requirements Long promenade, pod propulsion, Regulations: subdivision, low NOx/SOx, high speed, double hull, LSA, fire manoeuvrability, etc. protection, etc. Concept Concept Design Studies Design Studies Final Concept Final Concept Design Solution Design Solution Time Contract www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 6

Design Today: Rules-Based Design Logistics Business “Perceived” Risk Needed functions, basic Expected safety level for Owner services, costs, earning potential, all accident categories etc… Performance Functionality Safety Rules Requirements Long promenade, pod propulsion, Regulations: subdivision, low NOx/SOx, high speed, double hull, LSA, fire manoeuvrability, etc. protection, etc. Yard Concept Concept Experience, Talent! Available Knowledge Design Tools Design Studies Design Studies & methods Damage stability and Damage stability and Final Concept survival capaility survival capaility Trim, intact stability Trim, intact stability Cost estimates Cost estimates Design Solution Logbased WP1 Logbased WP1 Input (Module 1 to 6) Input (Module 1 to 6) Light ship weight and Light ship weight and capacities capacities Final design Final design Powering and propulsion Powering and propulsion Proportions and Proportions and arrangement arrangement Time preliminary powering preliminary powering Contract Structure arrangement Structure arrangement Lines and body plan Lines and body plan and strength and strength Hydrostatics and Hydrostatics and General arrangement General arrangement hull shape hull shape www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Hull arrangement and Hull arrangement and freeboard freeboard Dillon, 1969 and Erichsen 1989 Dillon, 1969 and Erichsen 1989 Safety is treated a Rule Compliance  This can not nurture a safety culture! % Quality Evasion Culture Compliance Culture Safety Culture www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 7

Adopt a Goal-setting Approach Design solutions developed to meet “safety goals” (beyond rules) alongside other design goals Innovation Functionality potential Performance Safety rules “Better” Design Design Solutions Space www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Provide Feedback on Life-Cycle Issues www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 8

Use routinely First-Principles Tools Knowledge about the ship Assigned Costs Freedom to make changes Time Concept Design Contract www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Use routinely First-Principles Tools Knowledge Increased about the ship knowledge Decision making shift Freedom to make changes Time Concept Design Contract www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 9

Risk-Based Design Logistics Business “Perceived” Risk Needed functions, basic Expected safety level for Owner services, costs, earning potential, all accident categories etc… Performance Functionality Safety Rules Safety Requirements Long promenade, pod propulsion, Regulations: subdivision, Objectives low NOx/SOx, high speed, double hull, LSA, fire manoeuvrability, etc. protection, etc. Yard Concept Experience, Talent! Available Knowledge Design Tools Design Studies Additional methods Functional Requirements Design Criteria Final Concept Damage stability and Damage stability and survival capaility survival capaility Trim, intact stability Trim, intact stability Cost estimates Cost estimates Design Solution Logbased WP1 Logbased WP1 Input (Module 1 to 6) Input (Module 1 to 6) Light ship weight and Light ship weight and capacities capacities Verification Final design Final design Powering and propulsion Powering and propulsion Proportions and Proportions and Time arrangement arrangement preliminary powering preliminary powering of “Safety Performance” Contract Structure arrangement Structure arrangement Lines and body plan Lines and body plan by First-Principles and strength and strength Tools Hydrostatics and Hydrostatics and General arrangement General arrangement hull shape hull shape Hull arrangement and Hull arrangement and 19 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk freeboard freeboard Dillon, 1969 and Erichsen 1989 Dillon, 1969 and Erichsen 1989 Risk-Based Ship Design Principles • Adoption of a formalised procedure to measure safety consistently (risk analysis / risk assessment / risk management) • Integration of such procedure in the design process (integrated design environment) • Flexibility to allow trade-offs between P erformance, E arnings, R isk (Safety) and C osts www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 10

RBD High-Level Framework RBD  Design with known safety level SHIP DESIGN SAFETY ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE (i) Design safety goals Performance Definition of design safety goa Expectations and functional requirements / preferences (ii) Requirements and Identification of hazards Constraints Identification of possible design solutions (focus on accident prevention) (iii) Meeting Ship functions and Identification of critical functions, systems and performance criteria relevant key safety parameters Safety safety Identification of critical/design scenarios performance (iv) Objectives (flooding, fire, system failure, etc) Systems, components, fitness for purpose hardware Risk Analysis feasibility (design solution) How probable? How serious? risk Satisfying (Level of detail depends on design stage) Design aesthetics Decision- Design making Risk Assessment costs (v) Implementation of risk control measures Goals (focus on preventing occurrence of accidents) Evaluation of ship technical company/society performance performance values, preferences Integrated Design Environment [ Software Platform ] 21 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk RBD and Innovation Low Nothing new or unusual Well understood issues Codes & Standards Established practice SAFETY RULES Medium Uncertainty/deviation from Engineering standard practice. Possible judgement safety trade-offs. Economic and lifecycle implications. High Novel or/challenging First-principles concepts. Large RISK ASSESSMENT uncertainties. Significant safety trade-offs. www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 11

Presentation Outline • Recent Developments in Ship Safety: Goal- Based Approaches and Risk-Based Design • Safety Level (Total Risk) Modelling Flooding Survivability Analysis Fire Safety Analysis Post-Accident Systems Availability Analysis Evacuation and Rescue Analysis • Concluding Remarks 23 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk Safety Level – Evaluation Framework Casualty Threshold /Safe Return to Port Accident Causality Analysis Consequence Analysis Mitigation Analysis Systems Availability Scenarios Flooding survivability analysis Collision Collision Evacuation & Rescue Systems Availability Grounding/ Grounding/ Scenarios Flooding survivability analysis Stranding Stranding Evacuation & Rescue Systems Availability Scenarios Fire safety analysis Fire Fire Evacuation & Rescue Safety Level (Total Risk) 24 www.safety-at-sea.co.uk 12