Demand for S Senior i Housing Housing National Town Builders - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Demand for S Senior i Housing Housing National Town Builders Association May 17, 2014 Gregg Logan, Managing Director DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SENIORS By 2050 o 88 million aged 65+ o 19 million aged 85+ Large market for housing for

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Demand for S i Senior Housing Housing

National Town Builders Association

May 17, 2014

Gregg Logan, Managing Director

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS – SENIORS

By 2050…

  • 88 million aged 65+
  • 19 million aged 85+
  • Large market for housing for older adult households

H i h i h l k h h

  • However… most want to age in their current home, many lack the access to the

services needed to do that

  • Incorporating senior housing facilities into TND is one option…
  • Building homes and neighborhoods that help residents to age in place providing
  • Building homes and neighborhoods that help residents to age in place, providing

needed services, is another option…

  • Incorporate services into communities that help prevent pre-mature entry into

assisted living assisted living ‒ One-quarter of households aged 65-74 include someone with a disability ‒ Two-thirds of households aged 85+ include someone with a disability ‒ Designs that accommodate disabilities enable residents to stay in their own g y homes

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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TWO MAJOR AREAS OF 55+ HOUSING TO CONSIDER CONSIDER

Senior Housing

  • Need-driven

Active Adult

  • Lifestyle-driven
  • Serving frail elderly, 80’s+
  • Service-enriched housing
  • Assistance with daily living

M l di l i l

  • Young Seniors, 55+
  • Independent living
  • Social programming

R i l i i

  • Meals, medical, social
  • Memory care
  • Skilled nursing
  • Can be a very expensive option
  • Recreational amenities
  • Low maintenance homes
  • 75% of American homeowners’ home

values are less than $350 000

  • Can be a very expensive option

values are less than $350,000

  • Active adult home buyers are seeking

moderate cost housing

  • More about the community than the

More about the community than the house

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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IN THE U.S. AND FLORIDA THE BIG INCREASE IS IN RETIREMENT AGE POPULATION IN RETIREMENT AGE POPULATION

National Population of 60-75 Year Olds 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025

60,000,000

, , , 38M 56M

55,000,000 7 0M +3.3M 45,000,000 50,000,000 +7.0M 7 9M 40,000,000 45,000,000 +7.9M 35,000,000 2010 2015 2020 2025

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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IN THE U.S. AND FLORIDA THE BIG INCREASE IS IN RETIREMENT AGE POPULATION IN RETIREMENT AGE POPULATION

  • Avg. Retirement Age 62

National Population by Age 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025

23,000,000 25,000,000

2010

g g Future Retirement Age 65+ 1

, , ,

19,000,000 21,000,000 3,000,000

2010 Population 2015

13,000,000 15,000,000 17,000,000

Population 2020 Population

000 000 9,000,000 11,000,000

Population 2025 Population

5,000,000 7,000,000 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 70 70-75

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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5

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NATIONALLY, A LARGE WAVE OF RETIRING BOOMERS IS COMING

Baby Boomers Estimated Rate of Retirement 2008-2030

BOOMERS IS COMING

4,200,000 4,400,000 3,800,000 4,000,000 3,400,000 3,600,000 3,000,000 3,200,000

NOTE: Based on an average retirement age of 62 according to the U.S. Census, Age 65 based on MetLife Middle Boomers Survey

At Age 62 At Age 65

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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g g g , g y SOURCE: National Center for Health Services

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AMONG TOP 10 RETIREE DESTINATIONS, SUN BELT STATES RECEIVE THE LARGEST SHARE

Distribution of 55-74 Year Olds Moving in to Top 10 Retiree States 1 2000, 2005, 2010

BELT STATES RECEIVE THE LARGEST SHARE

, ,

90% 100% Virginia Texas 60% 70% 80% Texas Tennessee South Carolina Nevada % 40% 50% Nevada North Carolina Georgia C lif i 10% 20% 30% California Arizona Florida 0% 2000 2005 2010

1 Does not include households that moved within the state

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: 2000, 2005, 2010 American Community Survey; PUMS data; RCLCO

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ABOUT HALF OF BOOMERS PREFER INNER SUBURBS OR URBAN LOCATIONS SUBURBS OR URBAN LOCATIONS

Assuming All Home Prices Are the Same, Please Select Which Proposition Best Illustrates What You Are Looking For in Your New p g Community 2012

100% 26% 0% 80% 90% 100%

Inner-Suburban Community with clubhouse and lifestyle activities, broad range of attached and single-family homes

24% 50% 60% 70%

Urban Community close to jobs and entertainment, limited onsite amenities, families of all ages Suburban Community with large

22% 20% 30% 40%

Suburban Community with large clubhouse, lifestyle activities, clubs and fitness facilities, and restricted to 55+ Rural Master Plan Community

28% 0% 10%

Rural Master Plan Community restricted to residents 55+, resort style amenities, and wide range of home sizes

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: January 2012 Pulte Homes Baby Boomer Survey

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AGE RESTRICTION NOT NECESSARY FOR ALL BUYERS BUYERS

If You Were to Move, Which of the Following Best Describes Your Preferences Regarding Moving to a New Community? g g g y 2010

60% 43% 48% 35% 45% 40% 50% 20% 20% 30% 9% 0% 10% 0% Prefer Age-Restricted Prefer All Ages No Preference 50 Years Old 64 Years Old

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: 2010 Del Webb Baby Boomer Survey, based on respondents who were 50 and 64 years old in 2010.

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RETIRING TO NEW URBANISM: SENIOR HOUSING AND ACTIVE ADULT EXAMPLES AND ACTIVE ADULT EXAMPLES

  • New urbanism communities attracting mature adults and seniors:
  • Amelia Park in Fernandina Beach, Florida

‒ 421 unit TND ‒ 70,000 square feet of retail ‒ 80% of buyers are over age 50 S i ll id i l ‒ Services allow residents to age in place

  • Home health care, telemedicine system
  • Cascades Verdae in Greenville, South Carolina

Senior housing within the Verdae TND ‒ Senior housing within the Verdae TND

  • Kentlands senior housing development across from town center

appeals to seniors

‒ Near services and social outlets

Near services and social outlets

  • Middleton Glen, at Middleton Hills traditional neighborhood

development in Middleton, Wisconsin

  • Silver

Springs Village, a TND Active Adult Community p g g y successfully sold out to senior homebuyers in suburban Atlanta

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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TND AS RETIREMENT COMMUNITY: ALTERNATIVES TO THE VILLAGES AND DEL WEBB TO THE VILLAGES AND DEL WEBB

  • Aging Boomers that move at this stage of life seek communities that facilitate:
  • Health and fitness
  • Making new friends and enjoying an active social life
  • Being close to essential services
  • Low-maintenance property that frees them to travel, socialize, and pursue new

interests

  • Amenities that support this stage of their lives

‒ Grocery stores, banks, parks, restaurants, health, fitness facilities Executive office space in a village center for “second” or “third” career small ‒ Executive office space in a village center for second or third career, small business, etc. ‒ Confidence that they’ll continue to be able to afford this lifestyle, i.e., some control over costs of living control over costs of living

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SAFETY AND REPUTATION ARE CRITICAL COMMUNITY COMPONENTS COMMUNITY COMPONENTS

4.58

Living in a safe environment

4.30

Overall Reputation of the Area

4.01 4.05

Proximity to shopping and restaurants Close proximity to quality doctors and hospitals

3.95

Having access to a wide variety of Amenities

3 83 3.87

Having access to water and nature A variety of housing options with different price points

3.83 3.40 3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80

Having access to water and nature

th

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: RCLCO Analysis of Survey Conducted December 5-December 10th 2012

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COMMUNITY AMENITIES RECREATION & FITNESS: TRAILS TRAILS

3.80

Parks / Green Spaces

3.55

Paved trail system for walking, jogging, biking, skating

3.45

Main Street Village Center with retail services and cafes for gathering and socializing with friends and neighbors

3.44

Cardiovascular Equipment and Free Weights for Outdoor Resort Style Pool

3.34 3.35

Natural (unpaved) trail system for hiking and walking Cardiovascular Equipment and Free Weights for Fitness Training

th

3.10 3.20 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.90

( ) y g g

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: RCLCO Analysis of Survey Conducted December 5-December 10th 2012

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RESIDENTIAL PRODUCT PREFERENCES: MATURE BUYERS MORE TH INTEREST, 48-57; MORE APT/CONDO INTEREST, 58+

100% 60% 70% 80% 90% Detached Single-Family Home 63% 65% 67% 60% 50% 60% 70% Townhouse/ Row House A t t/ C d i B ildi 11% 9% 16% 5% 8% 30% 40% 50% Apartment/ Condo in Building With More Than 5 Units Duplex/ Apartment Condo in 2 to 4 Unit Building 10% 7% 16% 7% 7% 10% 4% 11% 8% 12% 11% 16% 10% 20% to 4 Unit Building Other 10% 4% 7% 0% All Buyers Over 48 48 to 57 58 to 66 67 to 87

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: NAR Home Buyer/Seller Generational Trends, 2013

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AGE RESTRICTION NOT A UNIVERSAL PREFERENCE PREFERENCE

Trades Offs to Age Restriction and Community Diversity

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

A community that includes single people, couples,

  • lder adults and families.

A neighborhood where households are the same as yours in terms of age and composition

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

and composition. A community where at least one member of the h h ld i 55

47% 53%

household is age 55 or

  • lder and no one younger

than 18 can live in the home for more than three th f th A community of all age groups.

45% 55%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

months of the year. A diverse community with a variety of housing types, A more homogenous neighborhood with similar

45% 55%

  • wnership types, styles, lot

sizes and price ranges. home types, architecture styles, lot sizes and prices.

32% 68%

th

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: RCLCO Analysis of Survey Conducted December 5-December 10th 2012

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IMPORTANCE OF LIVING IN AGE RESTRICTED COMMUNITY INCREASES WITH AGE COMMUNITY INCREASES WITH AGE

Percentage of Respondents That Consider Age Restriction Important 2012

27% 25% 30% 19% 20% 25% 13% 10% 15% 5% 10%

SO C S

0% Age 50-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-70

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: January 2012 Pulte Homes Baby Boomer Survey

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THE YOUNGER SENIOR COMPONENT OF DEMAND IS HUGE DEMAND IS HUGE

National New Home Demand Projection by Source Market From 55-74 Households 2014-2030

300,000 ,000 6,000 0,000 44,000 48,000 51,000 51,000 51,000 51,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 52,000 49,000 48,000 200,000 250,000 175,000 204,000 230, 236 240 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 100 000 150,000 50,000 100,000

17 SOURCE US C ACS PUMS RCLCO

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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SOURCE: US Census, ACS PUMS, RCLCO

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MIDDLETON GLEN AT MIDDLETON HILLS – MIDDLETON WISCONSIN (NEAR MADISON WI) MIDDLETON, WISCONSIN (NEAR MADISON, WI)

  • Middleton Glen Retirement Community
  • Carefree independent senior living
  • Time to enjoy golfing with your friends,

fishing with grandchildren, bridge with your neighbors

  • Freedom to develop new interests
  • Community that promotes physical well

being and an active independent lifestyle lifestyle

  • Residents benefit from being within

walking distance to the businesses in Middleton Hills Middleton Hills

  • Grocery

store, Starbucks, café, bar/pub, dry cleaners, frozen yogurt

  • Residents of the Middleton Hills area

an “incubator” for Middleton Glen

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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MIDDLETON GLEN AT MIDDLETON HILLS – MIDDLETON WISCONSIN MIDDLETON, WISCONSIN

Year Built: Two Phases – 1998 and 2002 Planner: Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company (DPZ Company) Products: Apartments Products: Apartments Types of Care and Services Offered: Independent Living Unit Mix: 97 total units, 14 floorplans – 43 two-bedrooms, 54 one-bedrooms Apartments: 1B/1b, 2B/1b, 2B/2b Size: 815 1 585 sq ft Size: 815-1,585 sq. ft. Pricing:

  • Entrance Fee: $49,000-$232,000 depending on unit (100% refundable)
  • Monthly Fee: $900-$2,500 (depending on Entrance fee)
  • Utilities not included
  • Utilities not included

Occupancy: 93% Services: Housekeeping, Maintenance, Trash Pickup Amenities: Emergency Call Systems in Homes, Fireside/Dining Room, Wellness Center Library Wood Shop Transportation Billiards Room Wellness Center, Library, Wood Shop, Transportation, Billiards Room, Activities Director, Storage Areas, Surface & Underground Parking, Lounges, Green Space, Guest Room, Theater Market Acceptance: Leased-up quickly; 100% occupied in 2007, low

  • ccupancy of 88% occupancy during the Great Recession Around 95%
  • ccupancy of 88% occupancy during the Great Recession. Around 95%
  • ccupied in recent years.

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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THE STRATFORD AT WEST CLAY – CARMEL, INDIANA INDIANA

  • Located in the heart of Village of West Clay traditional

neighborhood development

  • Maintenance free, active senior living community, set in a

new urbanism community with classic architecture, among single-family homes, townhomes, and apartments Wi hi lki di lf id f i hb h d

  • Within walking distance or golf cart ride of neighborhood

retail, restaurants, businesses, parks, and clubhouses

  • Provides residents 10 miles of paths and sidewalks for

walking or jogging 160 acres of open space three fitness walking or jogging, 160 acres of open space, three fitness centers, pedestrian friendly environment oriented to safety and fitness

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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THE STRATFORD AT WEST CLAY – CARMEL, INDIANA INDIANA

Year Built: 2009 Developer: Brenwick Development Company Products: Apartments (Assisted) and Cottages (Independent Living) Products: Apartments (Assisted) and Cottages (Independent Living) Types of Care and Services Offered: Independent Living, Assisted Living, Memory Care, Skilled Nursing, Rehabilitation Unit Mix: 221 Total Units – 38 Cottages, 132 Apartments, 23 Assisted Living Suites 10 Memory Care Rooms and 18 Skilled Nursing/Rehab Rooms on 8 4 Suites, 10 Memory Care Rooms, and 18 Skilled Nursing/Rehab Rooms on 8.4 Acres Apartments: 1-3 Bedrooms, 1-4 Baths Size: 752-3,234 sq. ft. Cottages: 2 Bedrooms, 2 Baths Size: 1,158-2,269 sq. ft. Pricing: Pricing:

  • $1,800-$4,400 per month rent for cottages and apartments
  • $600 per person monthly dining
  • $200 per person monthly services fee

Occupancy: 60% occupied overall occupancy increased form 40% to 60% Occupancy: 60% occupied overall, occupancy increased form 40% to 60%

  • ccupied over the last year.

Services: Housekeeping, Concierge Services, Package Drop off and Delivery, Valet Parking, Trash Pickup Amenities: 2012 Awarded “Best of the Best” Clinical and Wellness Program Amenities: 2012 Awarded Best of the Best Clinical and Wellness Program, Emergency Call Systems in Cottages and Apartments, Grand Dining Room, Bar, Grill, Heated Pool, Activity Parlor & Library, Theater, Salon & Spa, Private Dining Room, Ballroom Floor & Hospitality Suite, Investment Club, Computer Center Center Courtyard National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014 Center, Center Courtyard

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CASCADES VERDAE – GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA CAROLINA

  • The location creates opportunity for Verdae residents to

have a place for their frail elderly parents, and for they themselves to “age in place” longer term

  • Many Cascades residents families that live in Verdae or in

the surrounding area C d V d b fi f i i E b S i

  • Cascades Verdae benefits from proximity to Embassy Suites

for visiting family, and the golf course—some residents enjoy playing golf and having their families come to visit if they do not already live in the local area not already live in the local area

  • A very upscale area; surrounding residents are financially

capable of paying the fees it costs to stay at Cascades Verdae; too expensive for others Verdae; too expensive for others

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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CASCADES VERDAE – GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA CAROLINA

Year Built: 2008 Developer: Banyan Senior Living Products: Villas and Cottages (Independent Living) Products: Villas and Cottages (Independent Living) Types of Care and Services Offered: Independent Living, Assisted Living, Memory Care, Skilled Nursing, Rehabilitation Unit Mix: 164 Villas, 43 Cottages, 48 Assisted Living units, 24 Memory Care units 44 Skilled Nursing/Rehab Beds units, 44 Skilled Nursing/Rehab Beds Villas: 1B/1b, 2B/2b, 2B/2.5b, and 3B/2.5b Size: 979-2,170 sq. ft. Cottages: 2B/2b, 2B/2.5b, and 3B/2.5b Size: 1,639-2,536 sq. ft. Pricing:

  • Villas: $200 000 $500 000 entry fee $2 400 $4 000 monthly fee
  • Villas: $200,000-$500,000 entry fee. $2,400-$4,000 monthly fee
  • Cottages: $400,000-$750,000 entry fee. $3,800-$4,500 monthly fee
  • 60% to 90% of entry fee is refundable depending on plan. Monthly fee

includes all services and dining. Occupancy: Villas and Cottages 95%; Assisted Living Memory Care and Occupancy: Villas and Cottages – 95%; Assisted Living, Memory Care and Skilled Nursing/Rehab –100% Services: Housekeeping, Concierge Services, Package Drop off and Delivery, Trash Pickup, Maintenance, Scheduled Transportation Amenities: Movie Theater Art Studio Grand Dining Room Pub & Billiards Amenities: Movie Theater, Art Studio, Grand Dining Room, Pub & Billiards,

  • Ballroom. Library, Private Dining Room, Café/Bistro, Card Room, Business

Center, Bank, Computer Center, Wood Working Studio, Barber Shop, Beauty Salon & Spa National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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CONCLUSION

  • There is a large market for Senior Housing; even larger for younger retiree

market, e.g., Active Adults , g ,

  • Good

examples

  • f

Boomers retiring to Traditional Neighborhood Developments, Senior Housing being incorporated into TND H t t t i th i t h l k th t

  • However… most want to age in their current home, many lack the access to

the services needed to do that—how can this be better addressed?

  • The older you are, the bigger the share of income that goes to pay for

y gg g y housing—many of the examples we’re looking at are expensive—what about everyone else?

  • Not just about adding Senior Housing to TND—need to build homes and
  • Not just about adding Senior Housing to TND—need to build homes and

neighborhoods that help residents to age in place, provide needed services, accommodate disabilities, etc.

National Town Builders Associate | MAY 17, 2014

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Gregg Logan Managing Director Ph (407) 515 4999 Phone: (407) 515-4999 glogan@rclco.com RCLCO 964 Lake Baldwin Lane Suite 100 Orlando, FL 32814 Phone: (407) 516-6592 Fax: (407) 515-6599 www.rclco.com