Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global Stan Pukash Vice President, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global Stan Pukash Vice President, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global Stan Pukash Vice President, International Sales ASCO Power Technologies EGSA 2006 Annual Spring Convention March 20, 2006 Sarasota, FL Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global Presentation Outline

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SLIDE 1

Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global

Stan Pukash

Vice President, International Sales ASCO Power Technologies

EGSA 2006 Annual Spring Convention

March 20, 2006 – Sarasota, FL

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SLIDE 2

2 2006 Spring Convention

Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global

Presentation Outline

  • Worldwide Consumption of Electricity

Increasing

  • Applications Driving the Demand for

Reliability

  • Why Power Reliability is an Issue
  • Dramatic Increase in Genset

Installations

  • Other Drivers and Summary
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SLIDE 3

3 2006 Spring Convention

Worldwide Consumption of Electricity Increasing

  • Globally there is a “steady relationship between

electric power consumption and economic development.” (EPRI)

  • The Energy Information Administration of the DOE

estimates world consumption in 2003 (most recent data available) at 14,768 Billion Kilowatthours (or 14,768 Tetrawatthours).

  • For 2003 U.S. consumption estimated at 3,656 TWH,
  • r about 25% of the total.
  • Electrification of the energy supply is now about

40% for the *OECD nations, and this will grow to 50 to 60% or more of total energy by 2050. (EPRI)

*OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation Data: DOE/EIA July 2005

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SLIDE 4

4 2006 Spring Convention

OECD Member Countries

Organization for Economic Co-operation

  • Hungry
  • Iceland
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • Luxembourg
  • Mexico
  • Netherlands
  • New Zealand
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Slovak Republic
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Turkey
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Canada
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
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SLIDE 5

5 2006 Spring Convention

Worldwide Electricity Consumption (billions of kWHs)

12,000 12,500 13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Billions kWH

Annual % Increase in Electricity Consumption

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Data: DOE/EIA July 2005

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SLIDE 6

6 2006 Spring Convention

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 NA CA / SA EMEA Far East SE Asia / Aus

  • Cent. Asia

Billions kWH 2002 2003

Worldwide Electricity Consumption By Region

Data: DOE/EIA July 2005

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SLIDE 7

7 2006 Spring Convention

% Increase In Electricity Consumption By Region From 2002 To 2003

4.90% 0.00%

0.78%

2.17% 6.34% 8.52%

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% NA CA / SA EMEA Far East SE Asia / Aus

  • Cent. Asia

Data: DOE/EIA July 2005

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SLIDE 8

8 2006 Spring Convention

Worldwide Electricity Consumption By Region For 2003 (And % Increase from 2002)

0 .7 8 % 4 .9 0 % 2 .17 % 6 .3 4 % 0 .0 0 % 8 .5 2 %

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 NA CA / SA EMEA Far East SE Asia / Aus

  • Cent. Asia

Billions kWH

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

Data: DOE/EIA July 2005

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SLIDE 9

9 2006 Spring Convention

Latin America Needs 90,000 MW Of New Generating Capacity By 2012

  • Mexico must be able to generate twice as much

electricity in seven years.

  • 29,000 MW capacity in 2005 must increase to 58,000 MW.
  • Strong political opposition to opening Mexico’s energy

sector to private investment.

  • The Brazilian Government says the capacity in their

country must increase by more than 60% over the next eight years.

  • 59,300 MW capacity in 2005 must increase to 96,000 MW.
  • The outlook is positive as the government’s new energy

sector model appears to be working.

  • Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile all will

require big investments in their energy supplies.

Source: Platts

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SLIDE 10

10 2006 Spring Convention

Will China Have Enough Power ?

  • China’s installed capacity in 2004 is estimated at 237,000 MW
  • Rapid Economic Growth is Impacting the Supply / Demand

Situation.

– 29,800 MW capacity shortfalls in 2004

  • East China Grid: 20,780 MW
  • North Grid: 7,470 MW
  • Central Grid: 1,550 MW
  • Consumption is growing.

– China’s economic growth is expected to be the highest in the world between now and 2010. – 1,671 Billion KWH in 2003 will grow by 68% to 2,800 TWH by 2010

  • Capacity is projected to be 320,000 MW by 2010.

– This will be a challenge for existing, inefficient state-owned utilities.

  • The Three Gorges Dam project will add 19,000 MW by 2008.

Source: DOE/EIA and Platts

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11 2006 Spring Convention

China’s Three Gorges Dam

The Largest Construction Project Ever

  • Dam is 7,600 ft. across

and 600 ft. high.

  • The world’s largest

reservoir will be created.

  • The reservoir will be

385 miles long and have as much water as Lake Superior.

  • Will open Chongqing,

a city of more than 30 million people, to

  • cean-going ships via

the world’s highest locks.

Data: Washington Post

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SLIDE 12

12 2006 Spring Convention

China’s Three Gorges Dam

The Largest Construction Project Ever

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13 2006 Spring Convention

China’s Three Gorges Dam

The Largest Construction Project Ever

  • $25 Billion project will produce 19 Billion Watts (19 Gigawatts).
  • Begun in 1994, 40,000 workers, 24X7 will complete it in 2008.
  • 19 Gigawatts is 10% of China’s power needs (combined consumption of

Boston, New York and Washington, DC).

  • 19 Gigawatts is roughly equivalent to 9,500 2-Megawatt Diesel Gensets.
  • At $25 Billion, that’s $2.63 Million per 2 MW Genset (but powering the

gensets on Yangtze river water would be very difficult).

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SLIDE 14

14 2006 Spring Convention

Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global

Presentation Outline

  • Worldwide Consumption of Electricity

Increasing

  • Applications Driving the Demand for

Reliability

  • Why Power Reliability is an Issue
  • Dramatic Increase in Genset

Installations

  • Other Drivers and Summary
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SLIDE 15

15 2006 Spring Convention

The Wave of Global Industrialization

is Driving the Demand for Reliable Power

Global demand for reliable power is driven by the following applications:

– “Low Cost Country” Manufacturing – Outsourcing Facilities – Data Centers – Telecommunications – Financial Institutions – Airports – Transit Systems – Call Centers – Government Agencies – Retail Complexes – “Prestige Properties” Even 99.9% uptime can be devastating to manufacturers, data handlers and other high tech operations.

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16 2006 Spring Convention

The Global Demand For Reliable Power is Growing

  • The availability of data storage and other high-tech

equipment has surpassed that of the back-up power systems needed to support them.

  • Data Centers require high-availability, high-quality

power, and lots of it !

  • A typical 100,000 square foot server farm needs from 6 to 8 MW
  • f nearly constant power.
  • Airports and transit systems require reliable power

to operate traffic control and dispatching and safety devices.

Source: Capital E and Energy User News

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SLIDE 17

17 2006 Spring Convention

New Global Facilities Require Reliable Power

  • Motors, conveyor belts, etc.
  • Voltage fluctuations barley

noticeable.

  • Only a complete outage would

cause an industrial process to halt.

  • Process can resume as soon as

power is restored.

  • Computer servers, semiconductor

manufacturing, digital equipment.

  • Servers won’t tolerate > 8 msec of
  • utage; semiconductor mfg won’t

tolerate 20% voltage dips > 67 msec.

  • Voltage sags are as perilous as

complete outages

  • Takes 16 hours on average for IDCs

to resume normal operations; Semiconductor mfg can take 32 hours to resume (plus damaged work will have to be scrapped).

The Industrial Age The Digital Age

Source: Energy User News

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SLIDE 18

18 2006 Spring Convention

Record Number of High-Rises are Under Construction

  • More than 140 buildings under construction

worldwide that are 200 meters (656 feet) or taller.

  • Of these, 25 will be over 300 meters (984 feet) and 7 will be over

400 meters (1,312 feet) tall.

  • There are also more than 130 proposed new

skyscrapers that are 200 meters or higher.

  • Of these, 43 are to be 300 meters or taller.
  • All of these will demand an extraordinary amount of

electrical energy for lighting, HVAC, elevators, and business equipment and computers.

  • All of these will demand reliable power, including

standby gensets and switching equipment.

Source: ENR 10/31/05

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19 2006 Spring Convention

World’s Tallest Building: Taipei 101

  • Located in Taiwan, it was originally called

the Taipei Financial Center.

  • Built in 1999-2004, opened on December 31,

2004.

  • 101 stories above ground and 5

underground.

  • 1,667 feet from ground to structural top.
  • 1,470 feet from ground to roof (Sears Tower

is 1,454 feet ground-to-roof).

  • Two double-deck elevators are the world’s

fastest at 37.5 mph; visitors are brought from main floor to the observatory on the 89th floor in under 39 seconds.

  • Eight 4.16 kV, 2000 kW diesel gensets.
  • More than 40 MV & LV ATSs.

Source: Wikipedia

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20 2006 Spring Convention

World’s Tallest Buildings Under Construction

2006 1,093 Dubai, U.A.E. Rose Tower 15 2009 1,102 Panama City, Panama Palacio de la Bahia 14 2010 1,132 Moscow, C.I.S. Federation Complex Tower A 13 2007 1,148 Dubai, U.A.E. Almas Tower 12 2006 1,171 Chongqing, China Wanhao Financial Center 11 2008 1,201 New York City Bank of America Tower 10 2009 1,247 Dubai, U.A.E. 23 Marina 9 2008 1,362 Chicago Trump International Hotel 8 2007 1,450 Doha, Qatar Dubai Towers Doha 7 2008 1,496 Nanjing, China Nanjing Greenland Financial Center 6 2009 1,588 Hong Kong, China International Commerce Center 5 N/A 1,591 Mekkah, Saudi Arabia Abraj Al Bait Hotel Tower 4 2007 1,614 Shanghai, China Shanghai World Financial Center 3 2009 1,620 Busan, South Korea Busan Lotte Tower 2 2008 2,625+ Dubai, U.A.E. Burj Dubai 1

Year Complete Height (Feet) Location Name Rank

(For comparison, Sears Tower is 1,736 feet and Empire State Building is 1,472 feet) Data: Council on Tall Buildings & Urban Habitat

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SLIDE 21

21 2006 Spring Convention

Burj Dubai

Arabic for “Tower of Dubai”

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SLIDE 22

22 2006 Spring Convention

Burj Dubai: World’s Tallest Building

  • Currently under construction in

Dubai, United Arab Emirates; topout estimated for 2008.

  • Structural height estimated at

2,625 feet (actual height is closely guarded secret); 167 floors.

– For comparison, Sears Tower is 1,736 feet and Empire State Building is 1,472 feet.

  • Four 11kV, 2MW engine-

generators for emergency power.

  • More gensets will be added as

tenants occupy building.

  • More than 100 transfer switches.
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23 2006 Spring Convention

Shanghai World Financial Center

  • Located in the booming area of

Pudong, near the Jin Mao Tower in Shanghai, China.

  • Construction scheduled to be

completed in 2007.

  • 101 stories.
  • 1,614 feet.
  • Designed for 300 hotel rooms
  • n the upper floors and an
  • bservation area at the top.
  • Initially four 10 kV, 2000 kW

diesel gensets with four additional for planned future expansion of emergency power system.

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SLIDE 24

24 2006 Spring Convention

Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global

Presentation Outline

  • Worldwide Consumption of Electricity

Increasing

  • Applications Driving the Demand for

Reliability

  • Why Power Reliability is an Issue
  • Dramatic Increase in Genset

Installations

  • Other Drivers and Summary
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25 2006 Spring Convention

Lack Of Reliable Electrical Power Has Many Costs

  • Loss of Productivity and Customer Service
  • Inability to run production machinery and processes
  • Inability to support customer service
  • Inability to maintain comfortable work environment for employees
  • Loss of Computer Data
  • Financial and customer records
  • Engineering and research information
  • Business and employee records
  • Loss of Communications
  • Sales opportunities lost
  • Customer relations and goodwill damaged
  • Loss of Security Systems
  • Fire alarms
  • Personnel safety
  • Theft
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26 2006 Spring Convention

Providing Reliable Electrical Power Has Many Challenges

  • Existing power plant capacities must expand at a rate that will

support the accelerating demand.

  • Electrical grids and distribution infrastructure must also

expand accordingly: this is often a bigger challenge than building new power plants.

  • Hydroelectric generation depends upon normal rainfall;

droughts in South America in 2003 demonstrated the impact on utilities’ ability to support their grids: planned service interruptions.

  • Political action can lead to power shortages and interruptions:

examples are Argentina’s decision to curtail gas supplies to Bolivia in January 2006 and Russia’s similar action against Ukraine.

  • “Theft” of power in developing economies impacts utilities’

ability to raise the cash needed for capital expansion.

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SLIDE 27

27 2006 Spring Convention

Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global

Presentation Outline

  • Worldwide Consumption of Electricity

Increasing

  • Applications Driving the Demand for

Reliability

  • Why Power Reliability is an Issue
  • Dramatic Increase in Genset

Installations

  • Other Drivers and Summary
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SLIDE 28

28 2006 Spring Convention

Emergency Systems Increase Electrical Power Reliability

On-site Power

  • Emergency Outages
  • Power Quality
  • Peak Demand

Reduction

  • Time-Of-Day Rate

Usage Reduction

  • Heat Recovery

Normal Power Critical Loads ATS

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29 2006 Spring Convention

Providing Reliable Electrical Power Has Many Benefits

  • Increased uptime through avoidance of
  • utages
  • More efficient business operations
  • Customer sales and services
  • Security and safety systems
  • Improved power quality for sensitive

electrical loads

  • Peak demand charge reduction
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30 2006 Spring Convention

Survey of Reciprocating Genset Orders

1.01–30 MW Diesel, Dual-Fuel and Gas Engines

10 ,0 6 5 Units 10 ,7 9 5 Units 2 ,0 0 0 4 ,0 0 0 6 ,0 0 0 8 ,0 0 0 10 ,0 0 0 12 ,0 0 0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 Survey Year (June-May)

1.01- 30 MW Units

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Total Output (GW)

U nit s GW

Data: “Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide” October 2005

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31 2006 Spring Convention

Dramatic Increase in Piston Genset Orders for 04 to 05 Survey Years

1.01 to 30 MW

  • Global unit volume of 10,065 in 05 Survey is 41% higher than

the 7137 in the 04 Survey.

  • Gensets in range of 1.01- 2.0 MW increased from 5930 units in

04 Survey to 8662 units in 05, or more than 46%.

  • Gas turbine units were flat for same period: 698 in 04 Survey

compared to 697 in 05; however aggregated MW output -10%.

7 13 7 Units 10 ,0 6 5 Units 2 ,0 0 0 4 ,0 0 0 6 ,0 0 0 8 ,0 0 0 10 ,0 0 0 12 ,0 0 0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 Survey Year (June-May)

1.01- 30 MW Units

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Total Output (GW)

U nit s GW

  • Units increased by 41%
  • Aggregate MW output

increased by 29%

Data: “Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide” October 2005

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32 2006 Spring Convention

Survey of Reciprocating Genset Orders

1.01– 2 MW Diesel, Dual-Fuel and Gas Engines

Data: “Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide” October 2005

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 NA CA/SA EMEA Far East SE Asia/Aus Cent. Asia

1.01-2 MW Units

04 05

+77% +113% +12% +112% +10% +39%

+46%

(Survey Year: June – May)

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SLIDE 33

33 2006 Spring Convention

Survey Year 2005 Comparison of Unit Sales of Gensets 0.5-1.0 MW vs. 1.01-2.0 MW

2923 1126 638 1235 2733 3784 502 874 870 1800 2478 2138 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 NA CA/SA EMEA Far East SE Asia/Aus

  • Cent. Asia

Survey Year 2005 Units Ordered

0.5-1.0 MW 1.01-2 MW 0.5-1.0 MW Total: 12,439 Units 1.01-2.0 MW Total: 8,662 Units

Data: “Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide” October 2005

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34 2006 Spring Convention

0.5-1.0 MW

P e a k i n g 3 % S t a n d b y 7 3 % P rim e 2 4 %

1.01-2.0 MW

P e a k in g 3 % S t a n d b y 7 1% P ri m e 2 6 %

Survey Year 2005 Comparison of:

Standby / Peaking / Prime Gensets

0.5-1.0 MW vs. 1.01-2.0 MW Total Quantity: 12,439 Total Quantity: 8,662

Data: “Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide” October 2005

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SLIDE 35

35 2006 Spring Convention

Demand for Reliable Power Goes Global

Presentation Outline

  • Worldwide Consumption of Electricity

Increasing

  • Applications Driving the Demand for

Reliability

  • Why Power Reliability is an Issue
  • Dramatic Increase in Genset

Installations

  • Other Drivers and Summary
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SLIDE 36

36 2006 Spring Convention

Evolution of Global Standards

Yesterday

  • I solated National Markets
  • Little Offshore Com petition
  • I ndividual National Stds

Today

  • Distinct Nat’l & I nt’l Mkts
  • I m portant Offshore Com p
  • National & I nt’l Stds

Tom orrow

  • Global Markets
  • Multinational Com p
  • Global Standards
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37 2006 Spring Convention

International Electrotechnical Commission

  • The Key International Standards Development

Organization for Electrical Technologies

– Founded in 1906, currently has 62 member countries.

  • Open only to national standards organizations such as

USNC/ANSI and Standards Council of Canada.

– Publishes standards to promote quality, safety, and global acceptance and environmental compatibility of materials, products and systems.

  • Over 5000 IEC Standards are in use in more than 100 countries.

– IEC Standards, such as 60947-6-1 on Transfer Switching Equipment, provide one of the benchmarks for the Conformity Assessment Industry. – Collaborates with ISO (International Organization for Standardization); ISO administers standards not covered by IEC.

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SLIDE 38

38 2006 Spring Convention

International Electrotechnical Commission (cont’d)

  • Objective: Achieving Global Acceptance

– One Standard One Test One Acceptance

  • US Participates via USNC/IEC

– Conduit to the global standards-setting community. – Participates in development of IEC Standards to facilitate international trade for benefit of US Industry. – Advocates US interests in standards, conformity assessment, and related matters. – Is an integrated committee of the American National Standards Institute (ANSI).

Source: USNC/IEC

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SLIDE 39

39 2006 Spring Convention