capabilities in the IMO: Presentation to the MAC Peter Shardlow - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Enhancing forecasting capabilities in the IMO: Presentation to the MAC

Peter Shardlow

Technical Specialist Market Modelling 9 September 2015

Presentation Overview

Technological innovation is changing electricity market fundamentals.

• New technologies are providing exciting opportunities for market participants and customers.

The IMO recognises the need to adapt to the evolving energy landscape.

• Enhancing our forecasting and modelling capabilities to meet the challenges of changing conditions

in the Western Australian energy market. We’re focused on delivering improvements in three key areas in FY16:

• Long term demand forecasting;
• Analysis of customer behaviour and segmentation; and
• Modelling of small-scale solar PV and storage technology.

2

The electricity market is evolving in response to technological innovation

3 Traditional consumer/producer model breaking down due to microgeneration and storage. Demand influenced by technology that gives consumers control over how and when they use energy. Internet-linked technology allowing for continuous interaction between consumer, retailer and wholesale market. Where we’re heading Utilities focused on the safe, reliable delivery of reasonably priced electricity. Demand driven by population growth, economic activity, air conditioning sales and efficiency measures. Little scope for dynamic interactions between customer and supplier. Where we’ve been

Our capacity to undertake detailed analysis of energy data is also improving

4

Improved analytical capabilities

Satellite cloud cover data Low cost IT infrastructure Smart Metering Live solar + storage data

New sources of information

New analytical techniques

Three focus areas for delivering improved forecasting and analysis at the IMO

5

Long-term demand forecasting Customer behaviour analysis Modelling of solar PV and storage technology

Improving the IMO’s long-term demand forecasting capabilities

6 Improved forecasting algorithms. More robust modelling and ability to analyse variability over different time horizons. Development of synthetic climate data and simulation model. Better approach to understanding climate-based demand variability. Integrated data visualisation tools. Models become easier to interrogate and more efficient to update. Incorporation of new data sources (e.g. solar) into our modelling. Improved forecast accuracy. IMO Deliverable Benefit to participants

Market Segmentation will focus on six questions to better understand energy use in Western Australia

7 Residential Industrial/Commercial Market Segment What does the residential customer demand profile look like? Will segmentation help us understand the impact of changing demographics? Which economic variables impact customer energy demand? Have energy use patterns changed significantly since market start? Do household’s respond to solar by changing consumption behaviour? How are customers responding to wholesale market signals? Purpose Validate critical forecasting assumptions with data. Improved understanding of demand variability. Inform market evolution and policy development.

Analysis of metering data is providing insight into how customers are responding to market mechanisms

8

Forecast temperature over 35°c, actual temperature was 28°c

3

Downward deviation aligned with high temperature

2

Daily maximum

• ver 35°c

1

Delivering improved small-scale PV and storage simulation models and analysis

9 Real-time rooftop solar generation data (FY16) Publish estimates of small-scale solar PV generation in the SWIS. Provides participants with data for (unmetered) solar generation. Improved battery storage modelling (FY16) Incorporate simulation modelling of battery controller technology in the next ESOO. Better understanding of the opportunities and risks around small-scale storage. Near-term rooftop solar forecasting (FY17) Use cloud cover data to forecast rooftop solar generation. Better forecasts of net customer demand in the near future. Project Deliverable Benefit

How we’re using real-time data to gain insight into the impact of solar PV variability on the SWIS

10

Figure 1: Estimated SWIS Rooftop solar production (% of maximum

• utput)

75% 10:30 2,300 MW 85% 12:00

• 100

25% 11:00 +70 Rooftop Solar + Metered Generation

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00

Loss Solar PV

• 500

1,000 1,500

2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24

Projected Historic

Figure 2: Historic and projected solar PV capacity, 2014 ESOO expected case

Three focus areas for delivering improved forecasting and analysis at the IMO

11 Long-term demand forecasting Customer behaviour analysis Modelling of solar PV and storage technology Support the IMO and market participants in delivering on the Wholesale Electricity Market objectives

Project next steps

Three ways the MAC can assist the IMO to deliver better analysis.

12 The IMO’s forecasting work is not developed in a vacuum We would like feedback on how market participants use our analysis and how we can better align our deliverables with stakeholder requirements. We believe that transparency is paramount We believe there are opportunities to work with analysts from other organisations to obtain critical feedback on our methodology and results. We need assistance to understand new innovative technologies The market is evolving rapidly, and we need to adapt our modelling to capture the effects of innovative new technologies.