DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE EU ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS GOALS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE EU ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS GOALS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE EU ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS GOALS Sujeetha Selvakkumaran, Ph. D Semida Silveira, Ph. D KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden 1 SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016 What are the EUs

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SLIDE 1

DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF THE EU ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GAS GOALS

Sujeetha Selvakkumaran, Ph. D Semida Silveira, Ph. D KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

1

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SLIDE 2

What are the EU’s energy and climate goals?

EU28 E Ener ergy a y and Climate te ta target ets Basis is o

  • f comparis

ison 2020 2020 2030 2030 GHG e GHG emis issio ion ta target et Compared to 1990 GHG levels

  • 20%
  • 40%

Re Renewable e energy ta target et Percentage renewable energy sources (RES) in primary energy consumption 20% 27% Energy e efficiency cy ta target et Compared to 2005 primary energy consumption

  • 13%
  • 20%

2

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

3,114 Mt-CO2eq 2,966 Mt-CO2eq 2,478 Mt-CO2eq 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 GHG emissions (Mt-CO2eq)

Years With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario GHG goals, as stated in the INDC WEM and WAM numbers are compiled from: Dejean F. Trends and projections in Europe 2015 — Tracking progress towards Europe’s climate and energy targets. Copenhagen: 2015.(EEA) GHG goals stated in the INDC are compiled from: Submission By Latvia and the European Commission on Behalf of the European Union and its Member States - Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the EU and its Member States 2015;2015:1–7

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SLIDE 3

What are we looking at through this study?

The quantitative effects of energy intensity and emission intensity of energy on the energy sector GHG emissions of the EU in the past years. The reduction in energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy required to achieve the 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, compared to 1990.

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

3

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SLIDE 4

What is Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA)?

  • The principle of deconstructing an aggregate environmental indicator to give quantitative measures of

the relative contributions of a set of causal factors (Ang and Liu, 2001).

  • There are many such IDA methods, and this paper employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI)

method, as detailed by Ang and Liu (2001).

  • The reasons for using this particular IDA method are multi-fold:
  • has perfect decomposition,
  • has consistency in aggregation,
  • can be used in both additive and multiplicative forms, and
  • has moderate complexity.

22ND INTERNATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH SOCIETY CONFERENCE

4

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

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SLIDE 5

The mathematical representation of LMDI 1 formulation

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

E EM GDP E P GDP P EM × × × =

Ei EMi E Ei GDP E P GDP P EMi EM

i i

× × × × = =

∑ ∑

Where; EM = GHG emissions; P = population; GDP = Gross Domestic Product; E = total primary energy; Ei = energy of ith sector and EMi = GHG emissions from ith sector

The GHG emissions given as a multiplicative factor of population, GDP per capita, energy intensity and emission intensity

  • f

energy is known as Kaya Identi tity ty.

5

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SLIDE 6

RESULTS

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SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

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SLIDE 7

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

EU28 28 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Cum umula ulativ ive Belgium

  • 2.54
  • 2.83
  • 2.99

2.28

  • 7.11

4.72

  • 9.28
  • 1.75
  • 0.44
  • 19.92

Bulgaria 0.77 1.03 3.60

  • 0.88
  • 5.70

2.04 5.14

  • 4.81
  • 5.71
  • 4.52

Czech Republic

  • 0.58

0.69 0.15

  • 4.66
  • 5.63

1.05

  • 1.53
  • 4.13
  • 4.19
  • 18.84

Denmark

  • 3.69

7.89

  • 4.83
  • 3.26
  • 2.02

0.47

  • 5.22
  • 4.63

1.81

  • 13.46

Germany

  • 19.90

9.53

  • 26.99

5.50

  • 57.99

39.53

  • 21.35

7.42 23.16

  • 41.08

Estonia

  • 0.71
  • 0.64

2.89

  • 1.52
  • 2.60

3.64 0.49

  • 1.38

2.20 2.38 Ireland 1.82

  • 0.50
  • 0.04

0.10

  • 4.48
  • 0.37
  • 3.48

0.07

  • 1.21
  • 8.09

Greece 3.05

  • 1.26

2.45

  • 3.26
  • 4.45
  • 7.16
  • 1.30
  • 4.07
  • 8.43
  • 24.43

Spain 14.52

  • 9.66

7.39

  • 27.47
  • 34.50
  • 14.29

2.41

  • 2.97
  • 25.96
  • 90.53

France 3.49

  • 9.70
  • 10.05
  • 5.44
  • 15.95

8.01

  • 26.44

3.60 1.19

  • 51.29

Croatia 0.31 0.21 1.21

  • 1.25
  • 1.23
  • 0.86
  • 0.48
  • 1.87
  • 0.56
  • 4.53

Italy

  • 2.54
  • 4.98
  • 8.91
  • 7.88
  • 44.11

9.96

  • 11.98
  • 22.72
  • 27.49
  • 120.64

Cyprus 0.18 0.18 0.33 0.17

  • 0.08
  • 0.23
  • 0.28
  • 0.51
  • 0.97
  • 1.23

Latvia 0.11 0.42 0.32

  • 0.45
  • 0.71

0.75

  • 0.86
  • 0.30
  • 0.11
  • 0.82

Lithuania 0.70 0.15 0.23

  • 0.13
  • 1.22

0.89

  • 0.85

0.00

  • 0.58
  • 0.80

Luxembourg 0.25

  • 0.21
  • 0.60
  • 0.16
  • 0.47

0.56

  • 0.17
  • 0.27
  • 0.59
  • 1.67

Hungary

  • 0.59
  • 0.68
  • 1.51
  • 0.61
  • 4.79

0.51

  • 1.81
  • 3.48
  • 2.25
  • 15.21

Malta 0.07

  • 0.03

0.08

  • 0.04
  • 0.08

0.00 0.04 0.14

  • 0.38
  • 0.21

Netherlands

  • 4.87
  • 3.26

0.00 4.22

  • 4.55

11.21

  • 13.57
  • 2.72
  • 0.36
  • 13.92

Austria 0.40

  • 3.35
  • 3.31
  • 0.48
  • 3.15

2.99

  • 2.33
  • 2.27
  • 0.38
  • 11.88

Poland

  • 0.24

11.20

  • 3.42
  • 6.47
  • 11.41

20.14

  • 5.81
  • 5.02
  • 4.26
  • 5.29

Portugal 2.59

  • 4.63
  • 3.09
  • 1.64
  • 1.05
  • 5.05
  • 0.86
  • 1.65
  • 1.95
  • 17.33

Romania

  • 2.55

2.05

  • 2.30
  • 1.10
  • 12.02
  • 5.89

4.97

  • 1.19
  • 9.55
  • 27.58

Slovenia 0.22 0.18 0.11 1.01

  • 1.61

0.07 0.01

  • 0.55
  • 0.74
  • 1.30

Slovakia 0.47

  • 0.97
  • 1.54

0.91

  • 2.89

0.57

  • 0.43
  • 2.51

0.24

  • 6.16

Finland

  • 11.78

11.16

  • 2.12
  • 8.23
  • 2.04

7.67

  • 7.12
  • 5.30

0.74

  • 17.03

Sweden

  • 2.35
  • 0.11
  • 1.16
  • 1.75
  • 1.85

4.16

  • 3.94
  • 2.41
  • 1.62
  • 11.01

United Kingdom

  • 3.61
  • 1.28
  • 11.06
  • 12.05
  • 45.80

16.96

  • 41.95

19.18

  • 11.49
  • 91.10

Cum umula ulativ ive

  • 26.

26.99 99 0. 0.61 61

  • 65.

65.15 15

  • 74.

74.53 53

  • 279.

279.48 102. 102.06

  • 147.

147.97

  • 46.

46.14 14

  • 79.

79.90 90

  • 617.

617.49

The differential in GHG emissions (Mt- CO2eq) from 2004 to 2013, by country

7

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SLIDE 8

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

EU28 28 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Cum umula ulativ ive Belgium

  • 2.54
  • 2.83
  • 2.99

2.28

  • 7.11

4.72

  • 9.28
  • 1.75
  • 0.44
  • 19.92

Bulgaria 0.77 1.03 3.60

  • 0.88
  • 5.70

2.04 5.14

  • 4.81
  • 5.71
  • 4.52

Czech Republic

  • 0.58

0.69 0.15

  • 4.66
  • 5.63

1.05

  • 1.53
  • 4.13
  • 4.19
  • 18.84

Denmark

  • 3.69

7.89

  • 4.83
  • 3.26
  • 2.02

0.47

  • 5.22
  • 4.63

1.81

  • 13.46

Germany

  • 19.90

9.53

  • 26.99

5.50

  • 57.99

39.53

  • 21.35

7.42 23.16

  • 41.08

Estonia

  • 0.71
  • 0.64

2.89

  • 1.52
  • 2.60

3.64 0.49

  • 1.38

2.20 2.38 Ireland 1.82

  • 0.50
  • 0.04

0.10

  • 4.48
  • 0.37
  • 3.48

0.07

  • 1.21
  • 8.09

Greece 3.05

  • 1.26

2.45

  • 3.26
  • 4.45
  • 7.16
  • 1.30
  • 4.07
  • 8.43
  • 24.43

Spain 14.52

  • 9.66

7.39

  • 27.47
  • 34.50
  • 14.29

2.41

  • 2.97
  • 25.96
  • 90.53

France 3.49

  • 9.70
  • 10.05
  • 5.44
  • 15.95

8.01

  • 26.44

3.60 1.19

  • 51.29

Croatia 0.31 0.21 1.21

  • 1.25
  • 1.23
  • 0.86
  • 0.48
  • 1.87
  • 0.56
  • 4.53

Italy

  • 2.54
  • 4.98
  • 8.91
  • 7.88
  • 44.11

9.96

  • 11.98
  • 22.72
  • 27.49
  • 120.64

Cyprus 0.18 0.18 0.33 0.17

  • 0.08
  • 0.23
  • 0.28
  • 0.51
  • 0.97
  • 1.23

Latvia 0.11 0.42 0.32

  • 0.45
  • 0.71

0.75

  • 0.86
  • 0.30
  • 0.11
  • 0.82

Lithuania 0.70 0.15 0.23

  • 0.13
  • 1.22

0.89

  • 0.85

0.00

  • 0.58
  • 0.80

Luxembourg 0.25

  • 0.21
  • 0.60
  • 0.16
  • 0.47

0.56

  • 0.17
  • 0.27
  • 0.59
  • 1.67

Hungary

  • 0.59
  • 0.68
  • 1.51
  • 0.61
  • 4.79

0.51

  • 1.81
  • 3.48
  • 2.25
  • 15.21

Malta 0.07

  • 0.03

0.08

  • 0.04
  • 0.08

0.00 0.04 0.14

  • 0.38
  • 0.21

Netherlands

  • 4.87
  • 3.26

0.00 4.22

  • 4.55

11.21

  • 13.57
  • 2.72
  • 0.36
  • 13.92

Austria 0.40

  • 3.35
  • 3.31
  • 0.48
  • 3.15

2.99

  • 2.33
  • 2.27
  • 0.38
  • 11.88

Poland

  • 0.24

11.20

  • 3.42
  • 6.47
  • 11.41

20.14

  • 5.81
  • 5.02
  • 4.26
  • 5.29

Portugal 2.59

  • 4.63
  • 3.09
  • 1.64
  • 1.05
  • 5.05
  • 0.86
  • 1.65
  • 1.95
  • 17.33

Romania

  • 2.55

2.05

  • 2.30
  • 1.10
  • 12.02
  • 5.89

4.97

  • 1.19
  • 9.55
  • 27.58

Slovenia 0.22 0.18 0.11 1.01

  • 1.61

0.07 0.01

  • 0.55
  • 0.74
  • 1.30

Slovakia 0.47

  • 0.97
  • 1.54

0.91

  • 2.89

0.57

  • 0.43
  • 2.51

0.24

  • 6.16

Finland

  • 11.78

11.16

  • 2.12
  • 8.23
  • 2.04

7.67

  • 7.12
  • 5.30

0.74

  • 17.03

Sweden

  • 2.35
  • 0.11
  • 1.16
  • 1.75
  • 1.85

4.16

  • 3.94
  • 2.41
  • 1.62
  • 11.01

United Kingdom

  • 3.61
  • 1.28
  • 11.06
  • 12.05
  • 45.80

16.96

  • 41.95

19.18

  • 11.49
  • 91.10

Cum umula ulativ ive

  • 26.

26.99 99 0. 0.61 61

  • 65.

65.15 15

  • 74.

74.53 53

  • 279.

279.48 102. 102.06

  • 147.

147.97

  • 46.

46.14 14

  • 79.

79.90 90

  • 617.

617.49

The differential in GHG emissions (Mt- CO2eq) from 2004 to 2013, by country.

8

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SLIDE 9

The EU28 decomposition from 2009 to 2010 and adjacent years

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SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

  • 63.2%

66.9% 40.6%

  • 23.5%

52.9%

  • 140.9%
  • 18.3%
  • 27.8%
  • 6.7%
  • 100%
  • 80%
  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Δ 2009-20 2008 08 Δ 2010-20 2009 09 Δ 2011-20 2010 10

Emission intensity of energy Energy intensity GDP per capita Population composition Total population change

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SLIDE 10

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

EU28 28 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Cum umula ulativ ive Belgium

  • 2.54
  • 2.83
  • 2.99

2.28

  • 7.11

4.72

  • 9.28
  • 1.75
  • 0.44
  • 19.92

Bulgaria 0.77 1.03 3.60

  • 0.88
  • 5.70

2.04 5.14

  • 4.81
  • 5.71
  • 4.52

Czech Republic

  • 0.58

0.69 0.15

  • 4.66
  • 5.63

1.05

  • 1.53
  • 4.13
  • 4.19
  • 18.84

Denmark

  • 3.69

7.89

  • 4.83
  • 3.26
  • 2.02

0.47

  • 5.22
  • 4.63

1.81

  • 13.46

Ge Germ rmany

  • 19.

19.90 90 9. 9.53 53

  • 26.

26.99 99 5. 5.50 50

  • 57.

57.99 99 39. 39.53 53

  • 21.

21.35 35 7. 7.42 42 23. 23.16 16

  • 41.

41.08 08 Estonia

  • 0.71
  • 0.64

2.89

  • 1.52
  • 2.60

3.64 0.49

  • 1.38

2.20 2.38 Ireland 1.82

  • 0.50
  • 0.04

0.10

  • 4.48
  • 0.37
  • 3.48

0.07

  • 1.21
  • 8.09

Greece 3.05

  • 1.26

2.45

  • 3.26
  • 4.45
  • 7.16
  • 1.30
  • 4.07
  • 8.43
  • 24.43

Spain in 14. 14.52 52

  • 9.

9.66 66 7. 7.39 39

  • 27.

27.47 47

  • 34.

34.50 50

  • 14.

14.29 29 2. 2.41 41

  • 2.

2.97 97

  • 25.

25.96 96

  • 90.

90.53 53 France 3. 3.49 49

  • 9.

9.70 70

  • 10.

10.05 05

  • 5.

5.44 44

  • 15.

15.95 95 8. 8.01 01

  • 26.

26.44 44 3. 3.60 60 1. 1.19 19

  • 51.

51.29 29 Croatia 0.31 0.21 1.21

  • 1.25
  • 1.23
  • 0.86
  • 0.48
  • 1.87
  • 0.56
  • 4.53

Italy

  • 2.

2.54 54

  • 4.

4.98 98

  • 8.

8.91 91

  • 7.

7.88 88

  • 44.

44.11 11 9. 9.96 96

  • 11.

11.98 98

  • 22.

22.72 72

  • 27.

27.49 49

  • 120.

120.64 Cyprus 0.18 0.18 0.33 0.17

  • 0.08
  • 0.23
  • 0.28
  • 0.51
  • 0.97
  • 1.23

Latvia 0.11 0.42 0.32

  • 0.45
  • 0.71

0.75

  • 0.86
  • 0.30
  • 0.11
  • 0.82

Lithuania 0.70 0.15 0.23

  • 0.13
  • 1.22

0.89

  • 0.85

0.00

  • 0.58
  • 0.80

Luxembourg 0.25

  • 0.21
  • 0.60
  • 0.16
  • 0.47

0.56

  • 0.17
  • 0.27
  • 0.59
  • 1.67

Hungary

  • 0.59
  • 0.68
  • 1.51
  • 0.61
  • 4.79

0.51

  • 1.81
  • 3.48
  • 2.25
  • 15.21

Malta 0.07

  • 0.03

0.08

  • 0.04
  • 0.08

0.00 0.04 0.14

  • 0.38
  • 0.21

Netherlands

  • 4.87
  • 3.26

0.00 4.22

  • 4.55

11.21

  • 13.57
  • 2.72
  • 0.36
  • 13.92

Austria 0.40

  • 3.35
  • 3.31
  • 0.48
  • 3.15

2.99

  • 2.33
  • 2.27
  • 0.38
  • 11.88

Poland

  • 0.24

11.20

  • 3.42
  • 6.47
  • 11.41

20.14

  • 5.81
  • 5.02
  • 4.26
  • 5.29

Portugal 2.59

  • 4.63
  • 3.09
  • 1.64
  • 1.05
  • 5.05
  • 0.86
  • 1.65
  • 1.95
  • 17.33

Romania

  • 2.55

2.05

  • 2.30
  • 1.10
  • 12.02
  • 5.89

4.97

  • 1.19
  • 9.55
  • 27.58

Slovenia 0.22 0.18 0.11 1.01

  • 1.61

0.07 0.01

  • 0.55
  • 0.74
  • 1.30

Slovakia 0.47

  • 0.97
  • 1.54

0.91

  • 2.89

0.57

  • 0.43
  • 2.51

0.24

  • 6.16

Finland

  • 11.78

11.16

  • 2.12
  • 8.23
  • 2.04

7.67

  • 7.12
  • 5.30

0.74

  • 17.03

Sweden

  • 2.35
  • 0.11
  • 1.16
  • 1.75
  • 1.85

4.16

  • 3.94
  • 2.41
  • 1.62
  • 11.01

Unit ited K King ngdo dom

  • 3.

3.61 61

  • 1.

1.28 28

  • 11.

11.06 06

  • 12.

12.05 05

  • 45.

45.80 80 16. 16.96 96

  • 41.

41.95 95 19. 19.18 18

  • 11.

11.49 49

  • 91.

91.10 10 Cum umula ulativ ive

  • 26.

26.99 99 0. 0.61 61

  • 65.

65.15 15

  • 74.

74.53 53

  • 279.

279.48 102. 102.06

  • 147.

147.97

  • 46.

46.14 14

  • 79.

79.90 90

  • 617.

617.49

The differential in GHG emissions (Mt- CO2eq) from 2004 to 2013, by country

10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Country analyses

11

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

Δ2004 - 2013 Population effects Population composition effects GDP per capita effects Energy intensity effects GHG intensity effects Total Germany 20.6

  • 40.1

111.0

  • 138.8

6.2 -41.1 Spain 7.9 22.5

  • 12.8
  • 63.4
  • 44.7 -90.5

France 9.7 9.7 12.7

  • 55.3
  • 28.0 -51.3

Italy 11.3 5.2

  • 33.3
  • 45.5
  • 58.3 -120.6

United Kingdon 13.3 20.8 19.1

  • 125.3
  • 19.0 -91.1
  • 100%
  • 80%
  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Germa many Spain Fr Franc nce Ital aly United ed K King ingdo don

Population effects Population composition effects GDP per capita effects Energy intensity effects GHG intensity effects

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Future reference scenario of GHG emissions of the EU

1990 1990 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 Emissions Projections (Mt-CO2eq) 4,130.0 4,156.1 4,294.3 3,986.6 3,785.5 3,437.7 3,281.2 3,021.6 Compared to 1990 100% 101% 104% 97% 92% 83% 79% 73% Compared to 2005 96% 97% 100% 93% 88% 80% 76% 70% Compared to 2010 104% 104% 108% 100% 95% 86% 82% 76%

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SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

Numbers for 2015 to 2030 compiled from: Capros P, Vita A De, Tasios N, Papadopoulos D, Siskos P, Apostolaki E, et al. EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050 - Reference Scenario 2013. 2013.

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SLIDE 13

The EU Kaya Identity decomposition results from 2005 to 2030

13 EU28 28 2005 2005- 2010 2010 2010 2010- 2015 2015 2015 2015- 2020 2020 2020 2020- 2025 2025 2025 2025- 2030 2030 Change i in G GHG emis issio ions ( (Mt Mt-CO2eq eq)

  • 307.7 -201.1
  • 347.8 -156.5 -259.6

Popula pulatio ion ef effec ects

71.1 58.2 54.1 33.6 31.5

GDP p per er c capit ita ef effec ects

109.8 231.0 214.6 183.4 171.9

Ener ergy gy i int ntensit ity ef effec ects

  • 336.9 -335.7
  • 441.7 -281.0 -245.6

Emission i inten ensity o

  • f

ener nergy gy ef effec ects

  • 151.7 -154.6
  • 174.7
  • 92.5 -217.4

SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

Numbers for 2015 to 2030 compiled from: Capros P, Vita A De, Tasios N, Papadopoulos D, Siskos P, Apostolaki E, et al. EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050 - Reference Scenario 2013. 2013.

  • 307.7
  • 201.1
  • 347.8
  • 156.5
  • 259.6
  • 500.0
  • 400.0
  • 300.0
  • 200.0
  • 100.0

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 2005-2010 10-'15 15-'20 20-'25 25-'30 GHG emission differential (Mt-CO2eq) Total Population effects GDP per capita effects Energy intensity effects Emission intensity effects

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SLIDE 14

The EU decomposition results by sector from 2005 to 2030

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SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

Numbers for 2015 to 2030 compiled from: Capros P, Vita A De, Tasios N, Papadopoulos D, Siskos P, Apostolaki E, et al. EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends to 2050 - Reference Scenario 2013. 2013.

Sectors

2010-2005 2015-2010 2020-2015 2025-2020 2030-2025

Power & district heating

  • 156.11
  • 150.91
  • 167.45
  • 79.91
  • 194.19

Industry

  • 96.37

20.23

  • 32.49
  • 16.46
  • 9.01

Residential

  • 4.56
  • 29.37
  • 41.15
  • 13.28
  • 21.60

Tertiary

  • 2.53
  • 31.37
  • 27.74
  • 15.41
  • 24.10

Transport

  • 33.75

0.10

  • 68.63
  • 22.95
  • 4.59

Energy branch

  • 14.40
  • 9.80
  • 10.30
  • 8.50
  • 6.10

To Total

  • 307.

307.72 72

  • 201.

201.12 12

  • 347.

347.75 75

  • 156.

156.50 50

  • 259.

259.60 60

  • 100%
  • 80%
  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 2010-2005 2015-2010 2020-2015 2025-2020 2030-2025 Power+district heating Industry Residential Tertiary Transport Energy branch

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SLIDE 15

GHG emission goals of 2030 of the EU

If 2020 values are held to be frozen, with frozen energy intensity values, emission intensity of energy should decrease by 45 45%, compared to 2010 values, for the GHG goal to be realized. Conversely, with frozen emission intensity of energy, energy intensity should decrease by 43 43.5% compared to 2010 values, for the GHG goal to be realized. In both the scenarios presented, and the corresponding efforts which have been outlined in the individual country reports, the level of effort is not sufficient to reach these targets. Also, some of the effects shown in the recent past could be the effects of the economic slowdown, which means that it could only be a short-term effect.

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SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016

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SLIDE 16

Conclusions

In terms of achieving the goals for 2020, the EU as a whole is expected to achieve and to also overshoot the goals expressed. But going in the same trajectory, the emission targets for 2030 seem unattainable, as per the results from the recent past. In order to achieve the 2030 energy and climate goals, countries would need to ramp up their efforts, especially in line with the component parameters they are weak in. Along with that, there are also sectors which need to be targeted in terms of improvement, in the whole of EU, as well.

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SWEDISH ASSOCIATION FOR ENERGY ECONOMICS CONFERENCE 2016