David McPhee Labour Market Statistician, Scottish Executive What - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

David McPhee Labour Market Statistician, Scottish Executive

• Scotland has one of the highest proportions of

NEET in Europe

What is the issue?

Proportion of 15-19 Year Old NEET, 2004

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

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a n d D e n m a r k Country Percnetage NEET

What is the issue?

• Approximately 36,000 NEET (14%). Not

Changed significantly over last 10 years

16-19 Year Old NEET, Scotland and the UK

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Percentage NEET Scotland UK

What is the issue?

• The NEET Group is not a homogenous group

Breakdown of the NEET Group, 2005

Sick/Disabled 15% Unemployed 64% Other Inactive 11% Looking after family/home 10%

What is the issue?

• Some Key Subgroups are:

Care leavers – At 31 March 2005, 59% of care leavers whose economic status was known were reported as being NEET Carers – 1,898 16-19 year olds are young carers and NEET Young Parents – in 2002/03 there were 8,519 teenage pregnancies among 16-19 year olds

What is the issue?

Young Offenders – 63% of young offenders were unemployed at time of arrest Low Attainment – 32% of the NEET group had no qualifications in 2005 compared to 11% of all 16-19 year olds Persistent truants – Research shows truancy linked to possible future NEET Physical/Mental Health problems – 15% of NEET group inactive due to health problem Drug or Alcohol Abuse – Approx 1,100 under 19’s in contact with drug treatment services.

What is the issue?

• The NEET Group is not a static group.
• 38.8% of school leavers in negative destinations

in October were in positive destinations by Feb/Mar

• This varied by Local Authority
• Full follow up of school leavers planned to see

capture the number moving from positive to negative destination

What is the issue?

What is the issue?

• Not All those in the NEET group will Require

Support

Unemployed 19,900 Inactive 14,700

6 months+ 7,400 <6 months 12,500 Sick/Disabled 3,900 Family/Home 4,200 Other 6,600

16-19 NEET 34,600

Want 3,300 No Want 3,300 No Support 2,100 Support 1,200

Measurement I ssues

• Main Source for measurement is the Labour

Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

• LFS/APS unlikely to detect small changes in the

level of the NEET group

• Sample survey – very little reliable data at Local

Authority Level for NEET.

• Census is used for detailed analysis but now 5

years out of date

Measurement I ssues

• TERU report (Commissioned by SE) on measurement published in

July 2006

• Recommendations:
• Until the administrative database comes on stream, a suitable

approach to monitoring change in the NEET group at the Scottish level is as follows. Use the APS to generate estimates for the total numbers in the NEET group at a point in time, but indicating clearly that the true number sits within a range due to sampling errors. To monitor changes in the NEET group over time use the DWP/School Leaver Destinations Survey data. Although this would be restricted to annual comparisons based on a single month, there is reasonable security that movements over time would reflect real changes given the close to 100% coverage.

Measurement I ssues

Estimate (School Leavers + DWP) 26,810 School leavers NEET 11,310 DWP benefits claimants 15,500 Unemployed Not Seeking/ Unknown 3,960 Job Seekers 7,960 Incapacity benefits 4,130 Lone parents 2,590 Other benefits 820 Unemployed & Seeking 7,350 Estimate of NEET group not counted in SLDR or DWP 7,790

NEET Hot Spots

• Although the NEET strategy is for Scotland 7 areas

were picked for early targeting

• These areas were chosen using 5 indicators: NEET

from the Census, School leavers destinations, 16-19 benefit rates, exclusion rates & attendance rates

• The 7 Areas chosen were: Glasgow, North Ayrshire,

Dundee, East Ayrshire, West Dunbartonshire, Clackmannanshire & Inverclyde

• These areas all have relatively high proportions of

deprived areas according to SIMD 2006