Dalekov
- vod
- d Group
Dalekov ovod od Group Future strategy, restructuring process and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Dalekov ovod od Group Future strategy, restructuring process and financing Diclamer These materials and the oral presentation do not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to
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Dalekovod d.d. Albania Dalekovod Adria Ltd. Dalekovod Ulaganja Ltd. Norway Kazakhstan Macedonia Montenegro Ukraine Germany Dalekovod Cinčaonica Ltd. 100% Dalekovod Projekt Ltd. Dalekovod Professio Ltd. Dalekovod EMU Ltd. 100% DALCOM GmbH, Freilassing Dalekovod Namibia Dalekovod TKS Ltd. Doboj 92.9% Cindal Ltd. Doboj 95.1% Unidal Ltd. Vinkovci 49.0% Dalekovod TIM Inc, Topusko 95.7%
Sweden
100% 100% 100% 100%
Anti-corrosion protection
Manufacturing of TL structures and other structures Galvanizing, anti- corrosion protection, Bosnia and Herzegovina Manufacturing of hot forgings (transmission lines, railway tracks, etc.) Works of expanded metal made of steel, copper, aluminum Production, sales and services related to electricity meters SPV for investments in TLM (factory for aluminium processing) SPV for investments in the Sky Office Project (50% project ownership)
Design of transmission lines, substations, etc. Holding company for investments into renewable energy sources
Dalekovod Ukraine Ltd. Dalekovod Greenland Ltd. Dalekovod Polska SA
International Croatia
Dalekovod Kosovo Dalekovod Libya
Dalekovod EKO 100% Velika Popina Ltd. 50% OIE Macedonia 50% EKO
Dalekovod Ljubljana Ltd.
Dalekovod Nigeria Dalekovod Mostar Ltd. 5 Sportski grad TPN Ltd.
Consortium with Konstuktor and IGH (large domestic construction companies) for investment in Spaladium Arena (Split, Croatia)
15%
1949 ► Foundation of Dalekovod 1962 ► 1st International reference – Transmission Line in Togo 1993 ► Transformed into the joint stock company 2005/2006 ► Key international reference in Iceland (230 km, 420 kV TL) as entrance point to Scandinavian markets (esp. Norway) 2004 ► First International acquisition of TKS Doboj, manufacturing plant for TL structures 2001 ► Listing on Zagreb Stock Exchange (2nd quotation, mandatory by the law) 2010 ► First renewable energy project completed 2000/2001 ► Introduction of the ESOP Program (60% of employees participated) 2009 ► Listing on the 1st quotation of ZSE 2009 ► First investments into renewable energy
the past 7 months
foreign markets
corporate restructuring in
to
riskiness of the business and high reliance on the tendering process Recent key developments
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Revenues 2010: EUR 226,8 mn 2009 ► Key international reference in Kazakhstan as an entry point to CIS markets
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Kazakhstan – KEGOC - 385,5 km transmission line TL 500 kV Island – Lansnet - 230 km transmission line 420 kV
EUR 80.5 mn EUR 24.5 mn
Norway- STATNETT – 103 km transmission line TL 420 kV
EUR 21.9 mn
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37 37 37 37 23 26 21 12 62% 70% 56% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2007 2008 2009 2010 Production capacity Output Capacity Utilization
Metal structures
Location of production facilities Suspension and jointing equipment
* Galvanization plant capacities and hot forgings capacities are not included
Key Highlights
in 000 tons in 000 tons
Dugo Selo (Galvanization plant) TKS Doboj (Metal structures) UNIDAL (Forged steel factory, JV with Slovenian UNIOR) TIM TOPUSKO (Expended metal factory) Factory Velika Gorica (metal structures, suspension and jointing equipment)
4,6 4,6 4,6 4,6 3,7 3,3 3,4 2,6 80% 73% 74% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Production capacity Output Capacity Utilization
ZD6 (9,2 MW WPP, JV)
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Branimir Alujević, B.Sc.E.E. Director of Engineering Business Unit Zdenko Milas, M.Sc.Econ Director of Production Business Unit Krešimir Anušić, B.Sc.E.E. Director of Construction Business Unit Damir Skansi, M.Sc.Econ MB Assistant President for strategy and corporate management, Director of Business Process Support Unit Jurica Prižmić, M.Sc.Econ Director of Strategic development Viktor Horvatinović, B.Sc.Econ Finance Director/Head of Accounting
mr.sc. Luka Miličić, M.E. President of the Management board Krešimir Kraljevć, B.E. Deputy of CEO and Member of Management Board Tomislav Belamarić, B.E. Member of the Board
Construction Business Unit Headcount: 610 Business Process Support Headcount : 158 Engineering Business Unit Headcount : 184 Production Business Unit Headcount : 459 Design Headcount : 98
Engineering and Construction
Headcount : 21 Production Headcount: 472
Other companies within the Dalekovod Group Dalekovod Plc.
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80% of total revenue in the foreign markets
labor force) and abandoning low profitable lines in order to ensure competitiveness of its products and services in the forthcoming period
significantly improve Group’s FCF generation
a regional leader in this line of business (wind power plants, biomass, thermal water, etc.) through strategic partnerships or by its own development
renewable energy projects in the Region, thus reducing the riskiness of the business (less dependent on tendering)
and WE and thus intends to utilize both domestic and international capital market in order to broaden its investors base and raise a new capital in the next two years
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Income statement (in EUR mn) 2007 2008
as % of sales
2009
as % of sales
2010
as % of sales
Total revenues 254,1 319,7
100,0%
334,0
100,0%
226,6
100,0%
Sales revenues 252,0 317,0
99,2%
330,0
98,8%
213,6
94,2%
Other revenues 2,1 2,7
0,8%
4,0
1,2%
13,1
5,8%
Material expenses and other direct costs 164,4 259,4
81,1%
205,7
61,6%
135,0
59,6%
Staff costs 49,3 56,1
17,6%
52,3
15,7%
41,2
18,2%
Other expenses 20,0 24,5
7,7%
25,4
7,6%
19,5
8,6%
Change in work in progress and finished goods
17,3
5,2%
14,5
6,4%
EBITDA 22,5 29,1
9,1%
33,2
9,9%
16,5
7,3% 0,0%
Depreciation 5,7 6,9
2,2%
8,1
2,4%
7,7
3,4%
Operating profit (EBIT) 16,7 22,2
6,9%
25,2
7,5%
8,8
3,9%
Financial revenues 0,6 0,2
0,1%
0,1
0,0%
0,3
0,1%
Financial expense 3,4 7,0
2,2%
10,1
3,0%
8,5
3,7%
Profit before tax 13,9 15,3
4,8%
15,1
4,5%
0,6
0,3%
Tax 3,0 3,3
1,0%
3,2
1,0%
0,5
0,2%
Net Income 10,9 12,0
3,7%
11,9
3,6%
0,1
0,1%
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Balance sheet (in EUR mn) 2007 2008 2009 2010 Long term assets 77,9 94,3 110,7 123,3 Tangible assets 68,1 80,9 97,0 97,0 Intangible assets 3,1 3,0 3,1 3,6 Financial assets 3,8 7,0 8,5 16,6 LT receivables 3,0 3,4 2,0 6,1 Short term assets 173,9 269,3 208,6 204,4 Inventory 36,4 101,8 66,1 48,0 Accounts receivable 112,0 151,3 135,8 142,9 Financial assets 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 Cash and equivalents 25,4 16,1 6,7 13,5 Total Assets 251,8 363,6 319,3 327,7 Shareholders Equity 75,3 82,2 94,0 95,3 Long term liabilities 27,5 37,2 36,2 58,9 LT financial liabilities 26,7 25,7 25,3 57,8 Long term provisions 0,9 0,9 1,1 1,0 Deffered revenues 0,0 10,6 9,7 0,0 Short term liabilities 149,0 244,1 189,1 173,5 Accounts and other payables 102,4 140,7 115,4 90,7 ST Financial liabilities 46,4 103,0 73,3 82,7 Reserves and tax payables 0,2 0,5 0,4 0,1 Total liabilities and SE 251,8 363,6 319,3 327,7
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Croatia International
Country Investor Project description Contracted (EUR) Norway STATNETT Construction of 90 km 420 kV transmission lines Sima Samnanger 23,4 mn Greenland Grenlandska vlada / ISTAK Ilulissat hydroelectric p. - 45 km 60 kV TL 6,3 mn Ukraine NEK-UKRENERGO TL 330 kV Dniester - Bar 10,8 mn Ukraine NEK-UKRENERGO expansion and modernization of 330kv substation Bar 10.3 mn Ukraine NEK-UKRENERGO 135 km 750 kV TL Rivne- Kiev 59,2 mn Foreign markets Delivery of suspension, jointing and other equipment on different international markets 8,6 mn Norway STATNETT delivery of steel tower construction for construction of TL Sima Samnanger 7,0 mn* TOTAL
125,6 mn
Total revenue (in EUR million) Revenue from international markets Contracted projects for 2011/2012 Completed or almost completed projects in 2010
* The exact value of the contract will know when all construction documentation and BOM will be designed in details and approved
Country Investor Project description Contracted (EUR) Albania/ Montegero Operatori Sistemit Transmetimit (OST) / CRNOGORSKI ELEKTROPRENOSNI SISTEM A.D. 156 km TL 400 kV Tirana Podgorica 41,9 mn Norway STATNETT 30 km TL 420 kV Sauda - Liastolen (70% completed) 12,0 mn Sweden VATTENFALL SERVICES NORDIC AB Construction of 500 kV transmission line Dannebo Finnbole 2,1 mn Macedonia TE-TO AD-SKOPLJE Construction of transmission lines TE-TO Skopje - TL 110 kV Skopje1 - Skopje2 5,8 mn Bosnia and Herzegovina J.P. ELEKTROPRIVREDA HZ HB D.D. ECSEE ALP3-BiH Schedule No.2 2,6 mn Slovenia Elektro-Slovenija d.o.o. Different projects (TL 400 kV Divača-Redipuglia,TL reconstruction, delivery of suspension and jointing equipment ) 2,6 mn Slovenia Elektro-Slovenija d.o.o. instalation with the delivery of safe climbing equipment (70% 3,6 mn Other larger foreign projects in progress Montenegro CGES AD Podgorica EPCG AD Nikšid Enlargement of substation Ribarevina, construction od substation Podgorica 5, 12 km 110kV TL, and different other works 7,0 mn Montenegro CGES AD Podgorica Substation Mojkovac, Substation Andrijevica - enlargement, constraction, connection to the network, project docummentation 1,7 mn Macedonia AD MEPSO Substation 400/110 kV Bitola 2 1,6 mn Bosnia and Herzegovina J.P. ELEKTROPRIVREDA HZ HB D.D. An electronic electricity meters 9,9 mn Bosnia and Herzegovina J.P. ELEKTROPRIVREDA HZ HB D.D. Suspension and medium voltage equipment 6,8 mn
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9% 22% 25% 28% 33% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 20 40 60 80 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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4% 4% 4% 0% 0% 3% 5% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2007 2008 2009 2010 9% 9% 10% 7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 2007 2008 2009 2010 7% 7% 8% 4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2007 2008 2009 2010
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2007 2008 2009 2010
ROE ROCE
Days payable Days receivable Inventory days
Structure of due account payables Structure of due account receivables
34% 8% 24% 19% 15% 0-60 days 60-90 days 90-180 days 180-360 days more than 360 40% 30% 20% 5% 5% 0-60 days 60-90 days 90-180 days 180-360 days more than 360
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161 175 148 233 171 196 148 169 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2007 2008 2009 2010
Working capital analysis
61 138 85 89
Total indebtedness Financial expenses Long-term debt and leasing Debt on the Sky office project is of a temporary nature since the company plans to divest the project by YE 2012. The company entered into this project in 2007 with secured financing provided by Unicredit Due to unfavorable financing conditions in Croatia in 2009 company relied on ST financing and waited on the improvement of market conditions in order to arrange more favorable LT financing. The growth of LT
continue in 2011 Although company’s indebtedness increased by 43% compared to 2009, the company managed to increase its LT vs. ST debt ratio from 26:74 in 2009 to 41:59 in 2010. With anticipated more favorable financing condition the company plans to further improve the above- mentioned ratio in order to prolong the debt maturity profile and thus reduce the refinancing risk
Project financing
EUR 16,1 mn
LT debt EUR 46,3 mn Net ST debt EUR 64,7 mn (Debt 78,2mn) (Cash 13,5 mn) Net debt: 127,1 mn
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46 103 73 83 27 26 25 58 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2007 2008 2009 2010
Short term debt Long term debt
3,4 7,0 10,1 8,5 2 4 6 8 10 12 2007 2008 2009 2010
DLKV –R-A Dalekovod Share price Price (20/05/11) EUR 33.1 52 week high EUR 52.7 52 week low EUR 29.3 Volatility 60 days 28.9% Analyst consensus buy 1 under review 2 Capital structure Number of shares 2.293.812 Market capitalization EUR 74.4 mn Freefloat (%) 85.07% Freefloat (shares) 1.95 mn Liquidity Average daily volume 12 months EUR 138 k 6 months EUR 164 k 3 months EUR 76 k Daily volume as %
0.22% Daily trade as %
0.26% Freefloat turnover 387 days
DLKV vs. . CROBEX DLKV-R-A share information DLKV price and trade volume
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500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
20.05.08. 20.05.09. 20.05.10. 20.05.11. Turnover (000 EUR) Share price (EUR)
15%
20-May-08 20-May-09 20-May-10 20-May-11 Dalekovod CROBEX
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Production Engineering BPS Construction
Current structure New structure Dalekovod Plc.
Production Design
Other
BPS Engineering and Construction
Dalekovod d.d.
Design
Other
Production Production becoming an independent Ltd.
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easier adaptation to the changing market conditions. Through the unification of the abovementioned processes Dalekovod will ensure better cost control an profitability of each project
and will be responsible for managing specific business programs and/or specific markets. Further, project Managers will be responsible for the profitability of their delegated program or market
Project Managers will be incentivized based on performance which will be measured by both revenue generation and profitability of the contracted project
existing Ltd.’s, Dalekovod Cinčaonica Ltd. or Tim Topusko Ltd.)
unprofitable programs
formed Ltd. while all remaining will workers will be declared redundant
as all necessary preconditions are satisfied, including, among others, the finalization of the construction hall and relocation of equipment
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in EUR # of employees Headcount reduction Average gross salary (yearly) Annual savings
Savings on salaries 1.421 307 20.270 6.222.973 Staff transport savings 92.930 Other employment benefits 107.865 Total savings 6.423.768
Savings due to headcount reduction One off severance pay expanses
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in EUR # of employees Headcount reduction Severance pay One-off expense
Dalekovod Plc. 300 20.270 6.081.081 Dalekovod Plc. (early retirement) 7 13.514 94.595 TOTAL 1.421 307 20.116 6.175.676 1.421
* * **
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Project name Project description Engaged capital as of 31.12.2010.
Project Sky office Sky Office project relates to construction of the larges office building in Zagreb (70,000 m2). The total investment value is EUR 98 million and Dalekovod has a 50% ownership in the project. Upon completion of the project the total capital employed by Dalekovod will reach EUR 50 million 27,1 Dalekovod TKS Doboj Dalekovod currently has a 92,9% ownership in TKS Doboj and intends to sell up to 50% of the company to a strategic
polygonal columns and various metal structures 2,7 TIM Topusko In 2007 Dalekovod completed an acquisition of 86,7 % stake in TIM Topusko (extended metal factory). The company is currently in the process of tendering for large international contracts but in case the company misses on contracting the stated projects Dalekovod will tend to divest TIM Topusko 4,9 Dalekovod Cindal Dalekovod has a 95% ownership of Cindal (galvanizing plant) and intends to sell up to 50% of the company to a strategic partner. Cindal is the largest galvanizing plant in the region with yearly capacity of over 24.000 tons 1,1 TPN Sportski grad Split Consortium with the leading Croatian construction companies (Konstruktor and IGH) for the development of Spladium Arena and associated facilities (Split, Croatia). Dalekovod has a 15% stake in the project 1,5 Dalekovod Adria SPV used for investment in the company TLM (Tvornica Lakih Metala) 4,4 Unidal d.o.o. Joint venture with Unior-Treče as of January 2005. The principal activity of the company is manufacturing of forget steel and Dalekovod intends to sell the remaining stake in the company (49%) 1,3 Velika Gorica Commercial real estate in Velika Gorica (near Zagreb). The property is currently in the manufacturing zone but the underlying location will soon obtain the license for commercial usage (planed to become an urban residence) 12,7 Other Investments in Questus PE fund, property and halls on island Korčula, property in Zablade and shares of Croatian companies 7,5 Total (in EUR mn)
* Amount for 50% shareholding ** Real estate valuation performed by ZANE - Zagreb nekretnine d.o.o. (February 2011.)
and Herzegovina, with a 13.0m x 2.5 m x 2.0 m bath. The reason behind the investment was to realize synergies with the existing factory DTKS a.d. and achieve the most competitive price of its products
up to 50% stake to a strategic partner (negotiations underway)
Croatia
EUR 98 mn
Dalekovod’s current HQ location)
started discussion with potential buyer
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Dalekovod TKS Doboj /Cindal
18.000 m2, offices appx. 3.500 m2) and is considering reallocation of the area
(attractive location next to Zagreb airport, rail station and highway A11 Zagreb-Sisak)
Unicredit Group)
in EUR million 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ZD 2 i 3
Revenues 0,0 2,8 5,8 5,9 6,1 6,2 6,4 6,6 6,7 6,9 EBITDA 0,0 2,4 4,9 5,0 5,2 5,3 5,4 5,6 5,7 5,9 Net income 0,0 0,2 1,7 1,9 2,1 2,3 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,1
ZD 6
Revenues 1,4 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,8 EBITDA 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,4 1,5 Net income 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,8 Total revenues 1,4 4,3 7,3 7,5 7,7 7,8 8,0 8,2 8,5 8,7 EBITDA 1,2 3,6 6,1 6,3 6,5 6,6 6,8 7,0 7,1 7,3 EBITDA margin 81,3% 83,7% 84,2% 84,2% 84,3% 84,3% 84,3% 84,4% 84,4% 84,4% Net income 0,3 0,6 2,1 2,3 2,6 2,8 3,1 3,3 3,6 3,9 Net margin 21,8% 13,3% 28,8% 31,4% 33,8% 36,1% 38,4% 40,5% 42,6% 44,5%
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0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 4Q/2010 1Q/2011
0,0 4Q/2010 1Q/2011
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 4Q/2010 1Q/2011
EBITDA Q1/11 vs. Q4/10 (in EUR mn) Net income Q1/11 vs. Q4/10 (in EUR mn) Sales revenue Q1/11 vs Q4/10 (in EUR mn)
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Revenues by markets Revenue by product groups
56,5% 23,8% 16,5% 43,5% 76,2% 83,5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2012 2013
44,4% 80,0% 94,3% 20,9% 7,9% 1,8% 2,2% 26,4% 11,8% 3.5% 6,5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2012 2013
Power engineering Road infrastructure Railways Constuction, telecommunication systems, etc. Product placement
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59,68 22,13 9,23 2,90 2,17 1,94 1,46 1,16 1,09 1,04 0,89 0,85 0,74 0,04 0,02 105
On average over 30 years old
Big investments cycle underway to support rising demand
Europe cannot add additional capacity without significant investments
Capacity is driven by higher energy demand and by renewable generation (the need to transport vast amounts of power for places energy is harvested - rural areas - to where it is used - urban areas)
Aging infrastructure
Lack of capacity
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Sources: 1. European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (www.entsoe.eu)
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Market Category Country Project description Status Project time plan International Sweden Substation 400 kV Barkeryd waiting to sign the contracts 2011/2012 International Norway 274 km 400 kv TL Orskog-Fardal (3 lots) not being tendered yet 2012-2014 International Norway Distribution of lighting towers not being tendered yet 2012 International Sweden 200 km 400 kV TL interconnection of souther Sweden and Norway (50 km lot) expected tendering 2012-2013 International Bosnia and Herzegovina sive zone - continued project planned 2011/2012 International Montenegro 400 kV TL Tivat - Pljevlja not being tendered yet 2012 International Macedonia 400 kV TL Štip - Serbian boarder not being tendered yet 2012 International Slovenia 90km 2x400 kV TL Krško-Ljubljana tender in place 2011/2012 International Slovenia TL 2 x 110 kV Beričevo-Trbovlje waiting to sign the contracts 2011/2012 International Kazakhstan Construstion of substation of Alma and connection to the transmission network with TL 220 kv and 500 kV -
prequalification completed, waiting for tendering 2012/2013 International Kazakhstan Construstion of substation of Alma and connection to the transmission network with TL 220 kv and 500 kV -
not being tendered yet 2012/2013 International Ukraine 750 kV Zaporizhzhia-Kakhovska not being tendered yet 2012/2013 International Albania 150 km 400 kv TL Tirana Priština waiting on tendering outcome 2011/2012 International Albania južni prsten 110 kV (TL and substation) not being tendered yet 2011/2012 International Sweden 50 km 400 kv TL Stackbo-Harma (Svenska Kraftnat) tender in progress 2011/2012 International Slovenia TL 2x110kV Formin - Cirkovce not being tendered yet 2011 International Bosnia and Herzegovina EPHZHB annual purchasing 2011 Total: > EUR 650 mil.
Source: EWEA (www.ewea.org)
Dalekovod’s WPP pipeline for the period 2012-2014*
* Dependent on obtaining all regulatory approvals and licenses
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WPP (2012-2014) Instalment date Country MW Total investment value (in EUR mn)
WPP Kamensko - Voštane 2012. Croatia 60,0 90,0 WPP Mazin 2 2013. Croatia 20,0 30,0 WPP Otrid 2013. Croatia 20,0 30,0 WPP Breza 2014. Croatia 20,0 30,0 TOTAL 120,0 180,0
Revenue CAGR > 15% EBITDA margin > 10%
needs with total demand forecasted at EUR 30 billion
CAGR of at least 15%, which has been company’s historical growth rate (10y CAGR on international markets of 18%) Sustainable net profit margin of 4-5% Deleveraging to 3x EBITDA Tageted ROE of ≈ 15%
2015, will further boost Group’s EBITDA (EBITDA margin of wind power plants > 80%)
in line with international peers (peers average net profit margin set at around - 4.5%)
company plans to deleverage its operations to 3x EBITDA and restructure its debt ratio with a LT vs. ST target of 70:30
measures, the Company plans to achieve ROE of ≈ 15% as well as implement a stable dividend payout (historical yield
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a) Private placement to institutional investors on ZSE b) Equity Credit Line arrangement (ECL) with a reputable international fund c) Dual listing on ZSE and foreign capital market
79 79 81 85 90 96 (5,8%) (1,3%) 2,0% 3,0% 3,4% 3,4% (10%) (5%) 0% 5% 20 40 60 80 100 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
(%) (US$bn)
Nominal GDP (US$) Real GDP growth
Source: EIU, EIZ, Bloomberg.
Croatian GDP Monetary Indicators FDI & FX Reserves Debt Indicators
5,3 5,6 6,1 6,3 6,4 6,4 115% 117% 120% 123% 126% 129% 7,5% 0,4% 1,8% 3,0% 3,1% 3,0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2 4 6 8 10 2009A2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E
HRK / USD, avg CPI, avg Money market IR
(HRK/USD) (%)
62 60 58 57 57 57 99% 101% 102% 99% 93% 88%
(5,1%) (3,9%) (4,5%) (5,1%) (5,2%) (5,2%)
(10%) 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 30 40 50 60 70 80 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
(%)
(US$bn)
Total foreign debt Total debt / GDP CA balance / GDP 14,89 13,79 13,23 13,15 13,51 13,54
2,9 2,5 3,3 2,9 3,1 3,1 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 1 2 3 4 5 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
(%) (US$bn)
FX Reserve FDI
Croatia’s Economic Environment
A number of significant challenges will be faced in 2011 to help Croatia recover from recession, stabilise the public finances and secure EU accession
Real GDP contracted by 5.8% in 2009, and a further contraction
demand recovers
Total foreign debt for 2010 is expected to be of c. $60bn
CCB forecasts that Croatia’s financing needs in 2011 will be HRK 31.0bn, which is lower than in 2010
The credit rating for the Croatian Government bond- maturing in 2012 is BBB/Baa3/BBB-
The CCB rate is currently at a 9.0% level
CCB cut the reserve ratio from 14% to 13% in February 2010, further cuts are possible in 2011 to bring the reserve ratio down to 11% in order to release extra liquidity
Inflation is likely to remain subdued Due to a significant contraction in domestic demand in 2010, inflation remained low (average of 1.3% in 2010) despite an increase in world oil prices and domestic energy and food prices Average inflation of 2.4% and 2.9% has been forecasted in 2011 and 2012, assuming a gain in recovery momentum
HRK/USD is currently at 5.73, while Bloomberg consensus suggests HRK depreciation in early 2011
The stability of the Kuna against the Euro will remain the priority for the Croatian National Bank, which will intervene in the foreign- currency market against appreciation or depreciation pressure
Macro Outlook HRK Interest Rates Inflation Public Debt EUR/HRK
Annual average GDP growth of 3.3% in 2012-15 is
expected as demand recovers gradually
Kuna is expected to depreciate, and it is a priority
for the Central Bank to stabilize the currency
FDI’s are expected to be stable while further cuts in
reserve ratio are possible in order to release extra liquidity
Current-account deficit is forecast to widen to 4.5%
in 2011, while external debt is currently at 100% GDP Significant macro challenges faced during 2010 Robust measures taken by the government Return to growth expected in 2011
Conclusions
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