Credit Update June 2014 Contents Introduction Group Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Credit Update June 2014 Contents Introduction Group Overview - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Credit Update June 2014 Contents Introduction Group Overview Strategy update Industry & market developments Credit update Strategic business units (SBUs) Appendix 1 1 Groups Profile Largest SEE independent
1 1
Contents
- Introduction – Group Overview
- Strategy update
- Industry & market developments
- Credit update
- Strategic business units (SBUs)
- Appendix
2 2
Group’s Profile
- Largest SEE independent downstream Group, with investments in Power & Gas
–
€10b Turnover with 14 MT of product sales, with strong export orientation (50% exports)
–
Leading Greek market position covering c. 60- 65% of local wholesale market fuels demand
–
Regional footprint through subsidiaries; coastal refineries provide supply chain advantage
- Completed its strategic investment plan, with positive cash flow impact
–
A €2bn investment plan with €150-200m of incremental cash flow opportunity at mid-cycle margins; no material capex requirements
–
Asset portfolio allows upside on recovery of refining margins and Greek market
- Successfully implemented a transformation competitiveness improvement plan
- n Group structure and operational model
–
Transformation initiatives added c.€270m annual benefits with additional opportunities of €130m over the next 18-24 months
- Consistent delivery of strategic targets; improving balance sheet
–
Achievement of strategic targets, despite Greek crisis & industry “black swans”
–
Continuous support from local and international relationship banks throughout crisis
–
Completion of capex cycle allows deleveraging from higher than target gearing
–
Opportunities for value monetisation (DEPA/DESFA sale process)
Complex refining asset base and leading domestic market share; Group positioned to benefit from Greek market recovery and refining industry upturn
3
- Complex refineries (Nelson index 9.6)
- Balanced sales channel mix with exports at
50% of total sales
- Leading market position with c.60-65% of
Greek wholesale domestic market and c.30% of retail
- Regional footprint with international
subsidiaries
- 30% of capital employed in non-refining
margin driven returns from Marketing, Petchems, Power and NatGas
Nelson/Solomon complexity benchmark margins Group operational footprint
ROMANIA TURKEY BULGARIA SERBIA CYPRUS FYROM GREECE ALBANIA BOSNIA MONTENEGRO
Refining Marketing Power & Gas
9.7 11.3 6.9 8.8 13.9 5.0
Aspropygros Elefsina Thessaloniki
NCI Solomon
5*
- 3*
4*
*$/bbl, average 2010-13
Shareholding & Governance
Controlling shareholders’ agreement supported successful transition from state to private sector Group, divestment of remaining 35% held by the Greek State as part of the privatisation
4
Shareholding structure 35% 9% 7% Int’l institutionals 6% Retail 43% POIH Greek State GR institutionals Corporate Governance Board of Directors:
- Consists of 13 members (3 executive and
10 non executive) appointed as per Articles of Association
- Board Committees (Finance / Audit / HR)
Executive Committee:
- Key management executives with
responsibility for strategy and operations Management structure:
- SBU structure ensures focus on key
business issues
- Regional portfolio controlled centrally
Assets overview
Core business around downstream assets with activities across the energy value chain
Refining, Supply & Trading Domestic Marketing International Marketing Petrochemicals Power & Gas
DESCRIPTION METRICS
- Exploration assets in Egypt, Greece, Montenegro
- Recently upgraded refining asset base:
– Aspropyrgos (FCC, 148kbpd) – Elefsina (HDC, 100kbpd) – Thessaloniki (HS, 93kbpd)
- Pipeline fed refinery/terminal in FYROM
- Capacity: 16MT
- NCI: 9.6
- Market share: 65%
- Tankage: 7m M3
- Leading position in all market channels (Retail,
Commercial, Aviation, Bunkering)
- c.1,800 petrol stations
- 30% market share
- Sales volumes: 3MT
- Strong positions in Cyprus, Montenegro, Serbia,
Bulgaria
- Advantage on supply chain/vertical integration
- c.280 petrol stations
- Sales volumes: 1MT
- Basel technology PP producer and seller on the
back of refineries integrated value chain
- > 50% exports in Iberia, Italy & Turkey
- Capacity (PP): 220 kt
- Second largest IPP in Greece (JV with
Edison/EdF)
- Capacity: 810 MW
(CCGT)
- 35% in Greece’s incumbent NatGas supply
company (under privatisation)
- Volumes (2013):
3.8bcm
Exploration & Production
5
Our Group in numbers – key financials (FY13)
6
€ million, IFRS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Income Statement Sales Volume (MT) - Refining 15,885 14,502 12,528 12,796 12,696 Net Sales 7,424 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 Segmental EBITDA
- Refining, Supply & Trading
269 338 259 345 57
- Marketing
92 114 66 53 68
- Petrochemicals
20 50 44 47 57
- Other
- 19
- 28
- 6
- 5
Adjusted EBITDA * 362 474 363 444 178 Adjusted associates’ share of profit 18 30 67 69 57 Adjusted Net Income * 150 205 137 232
- 117
Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Capital Employed 3,927 4,191 4,217 4,350 3,905 Net Debt 1,419 1,659 1,687 1,855 1,689 Capital Expenditure Incl. Refinery upgrade program 614 709 675 521 112 Free Cash flow
- 561
17 165 25 404
(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items
7
€ million Adjusted EBITDA 57 57 25 44 57* Capital Employed 2,517 129 527 400 692** Free Cash Flow 267 36 53 64 n/a FCF % of CE 11% 28% 10% 16% n/a
* Income from associates (reported below EBITDA) ** investment in associates *** Segments include Intra-segment transactions
HELLENIC PETROLEUM
Adjusted EBITDA: €178 m Capital Employed: €3,905 m Free Cash flow: €420 m
INTERNATIONAL REFINING PETCHEMS RETAIL POWER & GAS
Key segmental financials
Non-refining segments make a significant contribution to Group profitability; FCF at 12-15% of ACE over the last years (adj. for refinery upgrade).
8 8
Contents
- Introduction – Group Overview
- Strategy update
- Industry & market developments
- Credit update
- Strategic business units (SBUs)
- Appendix
2007-12 Strategy review
Delivery of strategic targets despite prolonged crisis; new refineries amongst most competitive in the Med
9
1 2 5
Upgrade Refining Assets Manage Portfolio for value Fit-for-purpose
- rganisation
3
Enhance vertical integration
4
Improve competitiveness
- Completed Elefsina and Thessaloniki upgrades
successfully
- €150-200m additional cashflow opportunity (benchmark
margin driven)
- Doubled domestic market share - BP network
- Increased benefit of regional integration
- Refocus E&P
- Power generation portfolio JV
- Refining improvements (DIAS)
- Marketing competitiveness
- Procurement (BEST 80)
- Cost structure
- Reduced headcount by 21% by 2012
- Established Group culture
- Shared services
10
2013-2017 Strategy Update
Refocuses on operational excellence; maximise cash flows to deleverage 1 2 5
Consolidate market position leveraging on new asset base Develop our people and continue to build culture of excellence
3
Enhance competitiveness improvement momentum
4
Leverage business portfolio Realise full benefit of the new investment
1 2
Deleverage Group
3
Diversify funding mix
4
Reduce funding costs Improve profitability
BUSINESS TARGETS FINANCIAL TARGETS
* Assuming mid cycle margins
Recent results reflect new refinery start-up process and record low margins. Company performance rebased post investments and competitiveness improvements; further upside driven by Greek economy and margin recovery.
178 400-700 50-60 70-100 20-30 40-60
2013 Elefsina
- ptimisation
Performance Improvement Greek market 2014 runrate Performance Margins and FX* Medium Term
Adjusted EBITDA projected evolution (€ mil)
400 (700)
(300)
EBITDA Capex Pre Tax Free Cash Flow
Investment phase
400-700 (100)-(150) 250-550
EBITDA Capex Pre Tax Free Cash Flow
Post-upgrade
Cash Flow profile pre and post-investment plan** (€ mil)
11 (*) $1/bbl sensitivity in margins results to €90m, assuming full utilisation of refineries and €/$ at 1.3 (**) assuming mid-cycle margins 2013 margin ($2.1/ bbl)
300-350
Medium term performance driven by refining margins.
- 4
- 2
2 4 6 8
12
Elefsina Refinery Upgrade
Full residue conversion, with 75% middle distillates yield, positioning Elefsina as a top net cash margin refinery in the Med basin
47% 24% 11% 11% 17% 25% 64%
Pre upgrade Current
Other Jet Diesel/Gas oil Fuel oil
New refinery schematic Product slate European Med refineries Net Cash margins*
*Wood Mackenzie 2018 Net cash margin projection, Med basin refineries
Elefsina
Solomon complexity index: 13.9 Refinery utilisation (%) 71 95 83 76
1Q14 2H13 1H13 Q412
13
Operational improvement projects reduced overhead gearing
FY14 target for additional benefits exceeding €80m, with a further €50m earmarked for 2015; 1Q14 on track with plan, at €18m on incremental contribution
2013 3.680 2008 5.138
- 28%
Group Headcount (FTEs)
163 125 2013 2011
30%
Propylene production (MT’000)
16 12 2013 2011
4%
Middle distillates yield of Aspropyrgos Hydrocracker %
16 9 2013 2009
7%
Procurement savings vs spent (%)
Evolution of transformation initiatives (€m)
2014 target: >€80m
400 290 227
45 Medium Term Target YTD 1Q14 18 2013 2008-12
14 14
Contents
- Introduction – Group Overview
- Strategy update
- Industry & market developments
- Credit update
- Strategic business units (SBUs)
- Appendix
Recent Industry developments
Challenging refining environment in the region driven by regional crude supply issues and weak growth
15
- 2013 the worse refining macro backdrop in the Med region for at least a decade
- Curtailed supply for crude due to developments in Iran (sanctions), Iraq, Libya (internal frictions),
Russia (crude directed to the East and domestic refineries)
- Weak demand in Europe, particularly in the South due to recession
- Competitive advantage of US refineries on energy cost and crude spreads, due to shale oil and gas,
led to reversal of product flows across the Atlantic
Med hydrocracking margins (2004- 2014) Med FCC margins (2004- 2014)
Shale oil SE sovereign crisis
7.0 6.9 6.8 6.5 3.7 4.4 2.9 4.7 2.4 2.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 12.5 10.8 10.9 15.1 2.8 4.9 5.9 5.4 3.7 4.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
*
* year to 30 May
*
16 16
Regional market – Diesel shortage in the Med
ELPE middle distillates yield suited to expected increasing shortage in the region
Greek market evolution
Signs of stabilisation in domestic market demand, post significant contraction due to recession; mild weather conditions reflected in heating gasoil market in 1Q14, while transport fuels demand remained flat
17
Domestic Oil products demand 2008-2013
million tonnes / year
1,679 3,117 4,408 1,616 3,422 3,283 9,239 10,125 11,413 10,832 2011 2010 2009 2008 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13
2009 vs 2013 -42%
- 29%
+4%
y- o- y
- 4%
1Q13 1Q14
Source: Ministry of Energy, Environment and Climate Change
18 18
Contents
- Introduction – Group Overview
- Strategy update
- Industry & market developments
- Credit update
- Strategic business units (SBUs)
- Appendix
Pro forma Cap structure
Weak refining environment and Elefsina optimisation process led to increased leverage ratio vs historical trend
€ million Maturity 2013 pro-forma** HP & HPF €605m Syndicated Facilities 2016 586 EIB €200m Facility A* 2022 189 EIB €200m Facility B – Guaranteed by Commercial Bank* 2022 189 HP €400m syndicated Facility 2015 225 Eurobond 2017 490 USD Eurobond ($400m) 2016 292** Bond loan (€200m) 2015 200 Other bilateral lines n/a 771
Gross Debt 2,942
Cash and cash equivalents (1,052)**
Restricted Cash* (260) Net Debt 1,690 Gearing ratio (Net Debt/Capital Employed under IFRS) 43% Leverage ratio (Clean EBITDA + associates’ share of Net Income) 7.2 x Pro forma Leverage ratio (excluding debt equal to investment in associates) 5.6 x
Pro forma Leverage on mid cycle historical EBITDA (2010-2012 avg)
2.3 x
(*) Contract review in progress; cash collateral in relation to EIB loan guarantee (**) based on FY13 financials, adjusted for ELPE GA 4.625% May 2016
19
1.4 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 36% 41% 41% 43% 44% 43% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 1H13 FY13 Gearing Net Debt NET DEBT DEBT/CAPITAL EMPLOYED
Gearing
Growth capex of >€2bn during 2008-12 led to Net Debt peak in FY12; Deleveraging is a priority with expected DESFA proceeds later in 2014, earmarked for debt reduction
(1) calculated as Net Debt / Capital Employed
Net debt and gearing(1) levels (%) - €bn
20 112 521 675 709 614 333 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08
Capex evolution 2008-2013 (€m)
21
DEBT STRUCTURE AND FUNDING STRATEGY
Aiming towards increasing markets participation in funding mix and reducing costs
Drawn Credit facilities by source 2012
27%
73% 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2022 2017 2016 2015 2014 New USD Bond*
- DCM provides capacity optionality, tenor
and competitive pricing
100% Markets Banks
1Q14 Target Term lines maturity overview* (€m)
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%
ELPE 8% 2017 GGB 10YR ELPE 4.625% 2016
ELPE GA Bonds Mid YTM (%)
(*) Matched by equal cash balance increase
- ELPEGA € 8% 2017:
< 5%
- ELPEGA $ 4,625% 2016:
< 4%
22 22
Contents
- Introduction - Group overview
- Strategy update
- Industry & market developments
- Credit update
- Strategic Business Units (SBUs)
- Appendix
Aviation & Bunkering C&I (Construction, wholesale) Retail
23
Greek petroleum market overview and route to market
Leading domestic market position through vertical integration and good logistics assets; well positioned to capture Greek recovery
3rd party Imports 60-65% 25-30% 0-10% Greek Refining capacity: 25MT Domestic market: 11.5MT
ELPE Group subsidiaries: 3MT (30%) MOH Group subsidiaries: 2MT (20%) Independent marketing companies: 5MT (40%)
ELPE exports: 6-8MT
3rd party exports: 5MT
16MT
ELPE Group subsidiaries: 2MT
8% 22% 8%
Greek market product breakdown
Specialty markets (PPC, public sector): 1.5MT (10%)
Gasoline Diesel Gasoil Jet Bunkers Other 23% 23% 23%
24
Greek Refining, Supply & Trading economics
USD based value chain with trading premia adding to refining net backs; export sales exceeding 50%.
Markets (sales premia varying across channels) Refining (Med benchmark returns & operations performance)
Refined Products (14.0m MT) Imported Products (1-1.5m MT)
Aviation & Bunkering (Med competitive pricing) Exports, Intra-Group (Platts Med FOB based + premia) Domestic market
5 MT 3 MT
Exports, 3rd parties (Platts Med FOB based)
2 MT 5 MT
Aspropyrgos NCI 9.7 145kbpd FCC Thessaloniki NCI 6.9 95kbpd Hydroskimming Elefsina NCI 11.3 100kbpd HDC
16 MT 1-1.5 MT
$ / €
Total ELPE capacity
1,175 1,078 1,041 982 942 1,170 1,108 981 949 874
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 EKO HF
25
Marketing
Leading position in the Greek market with both EKO and BP enhanced following BP brands; subsidiaries in neighboring markets increases downstream integration
Auto-fuels domestic market share evolution (%) Domestic Retail network evolution (# PS)
1,931
International Marketing: Regional footprint
30 15 2012 (post BP acquisition) 2008 (EKO only)
International Marketing: Sales volumes evolution (MT)
194 220 222 336 367 126 152 150 117 115 256 243 237 215 211 379 404 2012 1,072 2011 1,041 438 1,072 2013 433 2010 1,051 436 2009 1,014 SER JPK CY BU
1,816 2,345 2,186 2,022
26 26
Petrochemicals
Operations centred on vertical integration for higher value product; trading geared to exports markets Polypropylene value chain
Propane
Propylene splitter
90%
Thessaloniki PP plant (220 kt)
PP
Propylene imports
10%
Propylene
10% 90%
Domestic and international market
BOPP film plant (26kt)
Position:
- Competitive advantage in polypropylene - vertical
integration exceeding 85% of total production
- Exports account for 50- 60% of total sales; strong
export markets in Turkey, Italy and Iberia
- Domestic market share in petchems exceeds 50% in
all products, produced or traded Targets:
- Increase propylene production capturing propane
conversion value
- Exploit niche markets:
– Increase PP resin grade portfolio and BOPP film types with tangible cash benefits – Add new commodity plastics
- Leverage regional positioning and in-market
presence to increase trading
27 27
Power: second largest IPP in Greece; development of a renewable energy portfolio
Thisvi 420MW CCGT power plant
Consolidated as Associate
- Elpedison BV, is a 50/50 JV between Hellenic
Petroleum and Edison, Italy’s 2nd largest electricity producer and gas distributor (EdF Group)
–
Owns 75% of 810MW of installed CCGT capacity: a 390MW plant in Thessaloniki and a 420MW in Thisvi
–
Increasing power trading & marketing, within predefined credit metrics
- Energy market in Greece under restructuring;
current model targets system stability during a transitional phase
- Renewables portfolio target > 100MW (wind, PV,
biomass) subject to fiscal environment and market developments
28 28
Gas: 35% participation in DEPA, Greece’s incumbent gas company (in sale process)
DEPA – Long-term contracts on pipe gas (Russian & Azeri) and capacity rights on two in-bound interconnecting pipelines – Long-term contracts with power generators, eligible industrial customers and existing EPAs – Owns 51% of the local supply companies (EPAs), with rights until 2036 DESFA (RAB) – Greece’s gas grid and LNG import terminal owner and
- perator
– International pipelines: Participation in Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector
- SPA for sale of 66% of DESFA to SOCAR for €400m signed
- n 21 Dec 2013; regulatory approvals in process for
completion of transaction
DEPA snapshot financials (€m)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013 EBITDA 240 166 211 288 287 209 Net Income 120 61 91 191 197 170 * Adjusted for settlement with PPC
Natural gas transmission network DEPA Volumes 2007-13 (bcm)
Consolidated as Associate
3.8 4.0 3.6 3.3 4.3 4.2 3.8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
29
Contents
- Introduction - Group overview
- Strategy update
- Industry & market developments
- Credit update
- Strategic business units (SBUs)
- Appendix
30 30
Key Milestones
Transforming stand-alone government controlled Greek companies to a leading private sector regional energy player
PETROLA
( Elefsina Refinery)
DEP & DEPEKY
(Greek E&P)
ELDA
( Aspropyrgos Refinery)
ESSO - PAPPAS
( Thessaloniki Refinery)
PETROLA
(Elefsina Refinery)
DEP & DEPEKY
(Greek E&P)
ELDA
( Aspropyrgos Refinery)
ESSO - PAPPAS
( Thessaloniki Refinery)
1998 1960 – 1998 2003 2007 2008 2009
2014
Elpedison: 50/50 JV with Italy’s Edison, in Power Libyan upstream concessions sold to GDF Suez for $170m
2010
Thessaloniki Refinery upgrade completed Sale of 70% stake in
- W. Obayed upstream
concession in Egypt Acquisition of BP’s Ground Fuels business in Greece Merger with Petrola Hellas Elpedison’s 2nd CCGT Plant (420MW) in commercial operation Shareholding events Listing of new Group in ASE/LSE Greek Government announces its intention to divest its shareholding in ELPE
2011
Agreement to DESFA sale for €212m Elefsina upgraded refinery start up POIH becomes strategic investor with 25% stake
Float 21% Greek State 36% POIH 43%
2012 2013
Issue of €500m Eurobond Acceleration of transformation programs targeting c.80m of benefits
31
Refineries complexity upgrade impact on the Group’s crude and product slate
26% 12% 32% 45% 9% 10% 23% 25% 10% 8% Pre upgrade Current
Other Gasoline Jet Diesel/Gas oil Fuel oil
15% 11% 10% 0% 75% 89% Pre Upgrade Current
High sulphur Medium sulphur Low sulphur 47% 24% 11% 12% 17% 24% 64% Pre upgrade Current Other Jet Diesel/Gas oil Fuel oil
Crude slate — Group-wide Product slate — Group-wide Crude slate — Elefsina Product slate — Elefsina
41% 59% 100% Pre upgrade Current
High sulphur Medium sulphur
32
Group Key financials: 2004 - 2013
Strong track record of consistent delivery and balance sheet resilience
(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other one-off non-operating items and special income taxes € million, IFRS (Published) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Income Statement Figures Sales Volume (MT)- Refining 15,807 16,525 16,952 17,130 16,997 15,885 14,557 12,528 12,796 12,696 Sales Volume (MT)- Marketing 4,793 4,727 4,790 5,236 4,910 4,787 5,735 5,126 4,434 4,043 Net Sales 4,907 6,653 8,122 8,538 10,131 6,757 8,477 9,308 10,469 9,674 EBITDA 372 671 502 617 249 390 501 335 298 29 Adjusted EBITDA* 400 466 526 458 513 362 474 363 444 178 Net Income 128 334 260 351 24 175 180 114 86
- 269
Adjusted Net Income* 149 191 277 232 216 150 205 137 232
- 117
Balance Sheet / cash Flow Items Capital Employed 2,335 2,956 3,442 3,557 3,153 3,927 4,191 4,217 4,350 3,905 Net Debt 386 699 1,044 977 679 1,419 1,629 1,687 1,855 1,689 Capital Expenditure 295 185 145 195 338 614 709 675 521 112 Dividend (€/share) 0.26 0.43 0.43 0.50 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.15 n/a Key drivers Brent crude ($/bbl) 38.0 55.2 68.1 72.9 98.3 62.6 80.3 111.0 111.7 108.7 FCC cracking Med margins ($/bbl) 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.8 3.7 4.4 2.9 4.7 2.4 €/$ 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.39 1.29 1.33
FY € million, IFRS 1Q 2013 2013 2014 Δ% Income Statement 12,696 Sales Volume (MT) - Refining 2,872 2,790
- 3%
4,043 Sales Volume (MT) - Marketing 862 807
- 6%
9,674 Net Sales 2,241 2,077
- 7%
Segmental EBITDA 57
- Refining, Supply & Trading
21 24 16% 68
- Marketing
4 11
- 57
- Petrochemicals
14 17 19%
- 5
- Other
- 1
- 1
46% 178 Adjusted EBITDA * 38 51 35% 11 Adjusted EBIT * (including Associates) 10 17 78%
- 209
Finance costs - net
- 47
- 53
- 12%
- 117
Adjusted Net Income *
- 21
- 19
9% 29 IFRS Reported EBITDA
- 12
25
- 269
IFRS Reported Net Income
- 78
- 38
51% Balance Sheet / Cash Flow 3,905 Capital Employed 4,623 4,505
- 3%
1,689 Net Debt 2,188 2,333 7%
1Q 2014 GROUP KEY FINANCIALS
(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items
33 25
- 12
Reported EBITDA (€m)
51 38
1Q13 +35% 1Q14
- Adj. EBITDA (€m)
+7% 1Q14 2.333 1Q13 2.188
Net Debt (€m)
1Q14 HIGHLIGHTS
Improved results across all our businesses, as Elefsina contribution and enhanced operational performance offset weak margins and USD
Industry and Market
- Med benchmark refining margins significantly lower y-o-y (especially for FCC), with further
negative impact due to weaker $; small improvement vs 4Q13 partly due to Brent-Urals spread widening to $0.5-1/bbl area
- Uncertainty in Med crude market remains with due to Libya and Iraq exports
- Positive signs for domestic fuels demand as auto-fuel remain stable for a 3rd consecutive quarter;
1Q14 GDP estimate at -1.1%, lowest decline in 4 years Financials
- 1Q14 Adjusted EBITDA at €51m (+35%), reflecting improved operational performance in all
business units, despite weak refining environment and Elefsina 4-week shut-down
- Competitiveness projects deliver additional €18m contribution, in line with plan; opex 13% lower y-
- -y
- Associates contribution at €15m affected by lower gas demand due to mild weather conditions
- Net Debt at €2.3bn, driven by operating conditions and seasonality
Business developments
- DESFA transaction regulatory approval in process; closing expected in 2014
- New CLA with ELPE refining union agreed for 3 years; annual benefits of c.€10m
- Lease agreement for West Patraikos concession signed on 14 May 2014; field studies to
commence in 2H14
34
- 2.0
- 1.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 $/bbl
31/03/14 $107.8 31/12/1 3 $110.8
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT
Challenging supply environment remains as Libya and Iraq flows remain uncertain
- Uncertainty in crude markets
continued, with supply availability and Ukrainian crisis affecting Brent price
ICE Brent ($/bbl) Brent – Urals spread ($/bbl)
- Improved sweet-sour spreads in
1Q14 q-o-q
- Urals increased to c.55% of ELPE
crude slate in 1Q14
2013 2014 FY 108.7 107.9 1Q 112.6 107.9
2013 2014
FY 0.34 0.79 1Q 1.20 0.79 35
- 36.0
- 26.0
- 16.0
- 6.0
2013 2014 10.0 15.0 20.0 2013 2014
- 1.0
4.0 9.0 14.0 2013 2014
INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT
Weakness in product cracks affects FCC margins; Elefsina benchmark margin more resilient
36
MOGAS cracks ($/bbl) Med FCC benchmark margins ($/bbl) Med Hydrocracking benchmark margins ($/bbl) HSFO cracks ($/bbl) ULSD cracks ($/bbl)
1.7 2.4 1.0 1.0 3.5 4.1 4.7
2013 4Q13
- 59%
1Q14 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 2012
4.1 3.7 4.7 2.9 2.4 4.7 5.4
- 13%
1Q14 2013 4Q13 3Q13 2Q13 1Q13 2012
(*) Does not include PPC and armed forces
DOMESTIC MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Mild weather conditions account for lower heating gasoil demand; transport fuels flat with new car registrations +19% y-o-y
457 494 426 361 150 168
- 4%
1Q14
1.588
565 1Q13
1.646
612
Domestic Market 1Q ΜΤ ’000*
- 3%
37
- 15%
8%
- 8%
Aviation and Bunkering 1Q ΜΤ ’000*
HGO ADO MOGAS
- 2%
- 3%
1%
86 80 480 474
- 2%
Aviation Bunkers Gasoil Bunkers FO 1Q14 625 71 1Q13 636 70
CAUSAL TRACK & SEGMENTAL RESULTS OVERVIEW 1Q 2014
Improved operational performance offset weaker margins and USD with Adjusted EBITDA +35%
Adjusted EBITDA causal track 1Q13 – 1Q14 (€m)
38
21 16 53 24 4 19 11 14 18 20 17
- 1
2
- 1
1Q13 Margins & FX Elefsina Refinery (Jan- Feb) Operational Improvements (Refining, Marketing, Petchems) Others 1Q14
51 38
FX 5
Refining, S&T MK Chems Other (incl. E&P) Refining, S&T MK Chems Other (incl. E&P)
1Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS
GROUP PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT
(*) Includes derecognition of Elefsina project hedges (non-recurring) (**) Includes 35% share of operating profit of DEPA Group
39
FY IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
1Q
2013 € MILLION 2013 2014 Δ % 9,674 Sales 2,241 2,076
(7%)
(9,369) Cost of sales (2,210) (1,997)
10%
305 Gross profit 32 79
- (448)
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses (108) (104)
4%
(3) Exploration expenses (1) (0)
38%
(50) Other operating (expenses) / income - net* 5 2
(45%)
(195) Operating profit (loss) (72) (23)
69%
(209) Finance costs - net (47) (53)
(12%)
9 Currency exchange gains /(losses) (1) 1
- 57
Share of operating profit of associates** 32 14
(56%)
(338) Profit before income tax (89) (60)
33%
66 Income tax expense / (credit) 6 19
- (272)
Profit for the period (83) (41)
50%
3 Minority Interest 5 3
(44%)
(269) Net Income (Loss) (78) (38)
51%
(0.88) Basic and diluted EPS (in €) (0.25) (0.12)
51%
29 Reported EBITDA (12) 25
40
1Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS
GROUP BALANCE SHEET
(*) 35% share of DEPA Group book value (consolidated as an associate) IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FY
1Q
€ MILLION 2013
2014
Non-current assets Tangible and Intangible assets 3,607
3,582
Investments in affiliated companies* 692
708
Other non-current assets 172
187
4,470
4,477
Current assets Inventories 1,005
875
Trade and other receivables 737
869
Derivative financial instruments 5
2
Cash and cash equivalents 960
344
2,707
2,090
Total assets 7,177
6,567
Shareholders equity 2,099
2,059
Minority interest 116
113
Total equity 2,214
2,172
Non- current liabilities Borrowings 1,312
1,260
Other non-current liabilities 164
161
1,475
1,421
Current liabilities Trade and other payables 2,125
1,532
Borrowings 1,338
1,417
Other current liabilities 24
26
3,488
2,975
Total liabilities 4,963
4,396
Total equity and liabilities 7,177
6,567
1Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS
GROUP CASH FLOW
41
FY IFRS FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 1Q
1Q
2013 € MILLION 2013
2014
Cash flows from operating activities 502 Cash generated from operations (276)
(586)
(9) Income and other taxes paid (1)
(2)
493 Net cash (used in) / generated from operating activities (277)
(588)
Cash flows from investing activities (105) Purchase of property, plant and equipment & intangible assets (10)
(25)
(7) Acquisition of subsidiary
- 4
Sale of property, plant and equipment & intangible assets 1
- 8
Interest received 2
2
(3) Investments in associates
- 13
Dividends received
- (90)
Net cash used in investing activities (7)
(23)
Cash flows from financing activities (184) Interest paid (45)
(33)
(46) Dividends paid (2)
- 1,276
Proceeds from borrowings 776
81
(1,384) Repayment of borrowings (933)
(53)
(338) Net cash generated from / (used in ) financing activities (204)
(5)
65 Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents (488)
(616)
901 Cash & cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 901
960
(6) Exchange gains/(losses) on cash & cash equivalents (2)
- 65
Net increase/(decrease) in cash & cash equivalents (488)
(616)
960 Cash & cash equivalents at end of the period 411
344
(*) Calculated as Reported less the Inventory effects and other non-operating items
1Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS
SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS
42
FY 1Q
2013 € million, IFRS 2013
2014
Δ%
Reported EBITDA
- 80
Refining, Supply & Trading
- 34
- 1
98% 63 Marketing 9
10
10% 53 Petrochemicals 14
17
19% 36 Core Business
- 11
26
- 8
Other (incl. E&P)
- 1
- 1
3% 29 Total
- 12
25
- 102
Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group 31
27
- 15%
Adjusted EBITDA (*)
57 Refining, Supply & Trading 21
24
16% 68 Marketing 4
11
- 57
Petrochemicals 14
17
19% 183 Core Business 39
52
32%
- 5
Other (incl. E&P)
- 1
- 1
3% 178 Total 38
51
35% 102 Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group 31
27
- 15%
Adjusted EBIT (*)
- 97
Refining, Supply & Trading
- 22
- 7
68% 13 Marketing
- 9
- 2
79% 45 Petrochemicals 10
14
36%
- 39
Core Business
- 21
5
- 7
Other (incl. E&P)
- 1
- 1
- 10%
- 46
Total
- 22
3
- 57
Associates (Power & Gas) share attributable to Group 32
14
- 56%
1Q 2014 FINANCIAL RESULTS
SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS – II
43
FY 1Q
2013 € million, IFRS 2013 2014 Δ%
Volumes (M/T'000)
12,696 Refining, Supply & Trading 2,872
2,790
- 3%
4,043 Marketing 862
807
- 6%
295 Petrochemicals 68
60
- 12%
17,035 Total - Core Business 3,802
3,657
- 4%
Sales
9,078 Refining, Supply & Trading 2,097
1,929
- 8%
3,345 Marketing 742
658
- 11%
327 Petrochemicals 80
80
1% 12,750 Core Business 2,918
2,667
- 9%
- 3,076
Intersegment & other
- 677
- 591
13% 9,674 Total 2,241
2,077
- 7%
Capital Employed
2,248 Refining, Supply & Trading 2,869
2,707
- 6%
775 Marketing 900
886
- 2%
129 Petrochemicals 139
138
- 1%
3,152 Core Business 3,908
3,731
- 5%
692 Associates (Power & Gas) 677
708
5% 62 Other (incl. E&P) 37
63
69% 3,905 Total 4,623
4,502
- 3%
44
Glossary of Key Terms
Adjusted EBITDA Reported EBITDA adjusted by inventory effect (impact of the fluctuation of crude prices on BS inventories and on the value of products sold during the related period) and other one-off non recurring items CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine FCC Fluid Catalytic Cracking HDC Hydrocracking HS Hydroskimming HSFO High Sulfur Fuel Oil IPP Independent Power Producer Leverage ratio Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (including associates share of net income) LNG Liquefied Natural Gas NatGas Natural Gas Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) An index assessing the refinery conversion capacity by relating each processing unit capacity against the crude distillation capacity and applying weighting factor.
Pro forma leverage ratio Net Debt (excluding debt equal to investment in associates ) / Adjusted EBITDA
Pro forma leverage on mid cycle historical EBITDA (2010-2012 avg) Net Debt (excluding investment in associates ) / Adjusted EBITDA(2010-2012 avg) POIH Paneuropean Oil and Industrial Holdings (POIH) PP Polypropylene Solomon Comlexity Index Compares the relative refining configuration apart from throughput capacity. It is the total of EDC (Equivalent Distillation Capacity) divided by the sum of the crude unit stream-day capacities. ULSD Ultra-low-sulphur diesel (ULSD)
45
Disclaimer
Forward looking statements Hellenic Petroleum do not in general publish forecasts regarding their future financial
- results. The financial forecasts contained in this document are based on a series of
assumptions, which are subject to the occurrence of events that can neither be reasonably foreseen by Hellenic Petroleum, nor are within Hellenic Petroleum's control. The said forecasts represent management's estimates, and should be treated as mere
- estimates. There is no certainty that the actual financial results of Hellenic Petroleum