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Creating a Sustainable Business
August 2016
T V E : T S X
Creating a Sustainable Business August 2016 T V E : T S X - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Creating a Sustainable Business August 2016 T V E : T S X www.tamarackvalley.ca 1 Forward Looking Information Certain information included in this presentation constitutes forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation.
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T V E : T S X
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Certain information included in this presentation constitutes forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information typically contains statements with words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend”, “estimate”, “propose”, “project” or similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook. Forward-looking information in this presentation may include, but is not limited to, (i) potential development opportunities and drilling locations, expectations and assumptions concerning the success of future drilling and development activities, the performance of existing wells, the performance of new wells, decline rates, recovery factors, the successful application of technology and the geological characteristics of properties, (ii) cash flow, (iii) oil & natural gas production growth, (iv) debt and bank facilities, (v) primary and secondary recovery potentials and implementation thereof, (vi) potential acquisitions, (vii) drilling, completion and operating costs, and (viii) realization of anticipated benefits of acquisitions. Forward-looking information is based on a number of factors and assumptions which have been used to develop such information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although the proposed management believes that the expectations reflected in its forward-looking information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information because there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified in this presentation, assumptions have been made regarding and are implicit in, among other things, expectations and assumptions concerning the performance of existing wells and success obtained in drilling new wells, anticipated expenses, cash flow and capital expenditures and the application of regulatory and royalty regimes. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list is not exhaustive of all factors and assumptions which have been used. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses, and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. Forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates and projections that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the proposed management and described in the forward-looking information. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is made as of the date hereof and the proposed management undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by applicable securities laws. The forward looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. This presentation contains the term “net backs” which is not a term recognized under IFRS. This measure is used by the proposed management to help evaluate corporate performance as well as to evaluate acquisitions. Management considers net backs as a key measure as it demonstrates its profitability relative to current commodity prices. Operating net backs are calculated by taking total revenues and subtracting royalties, operating expenses and transportations costs on a per BOE basis. BOE Disclosure The term barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet per barrel (6Mcf/bbl) of natural gas to barrels of oil equivalence is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. All BOE conversions in the report are derived from converting gas to oil in the ratio mix of six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In this presentation: (i) mcf means thousand cubic feet; (ii) mcf/d means thousand cubic feet per day (iii) mmcf means million cubic feet; (iv) mmcf/d means million cubic feet per day; (v) bbls means barrels; (vi) mbbls means thousand barrels; (vii) mmbbls means million barrels; (viii) bbls/d means barrels per day; (ix) bcf means billion cubic feet; (x) mboe means thousand barrels of oil equivalent; (xi) mmboe means million barrels of oil equivalent and (xii) boe/d means barrels of oil equivalent per day. This presentation is not an offer of the securities for sale in the United States. The securities have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration. This presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any state in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
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Pumping costs Drilling day rates 56% Crude prices Cdn rig count 46% <20% Poorest economics Position balance sheet Execute M&A and build inventory
High cost, low commodity Reality sets in Position for recovery
$98-$100/bbl WTI $45-50/bbl WTI M&A Bid/Ask Spread Wide M&A Bid/Ask Spread Narrows Stop spending capital Focus on cost, inventory build & debt reduction Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/16 M+A Metrics Land costs Modest drilling Accelerate growth Accelerate growth
Commodity recovery
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Top 10th Percentile Top 25th Percentile
Note: The above IRR calculations assume CIBC’s base commodity price forecast of US$45.00/Bbl WTI & C$2.78/Mcf AECO in 2016, and US$65.00Bbl WTI & C$3.40/Mcf AECO in 2017. Source: geoSCOUT, company reports, and CIBC World Markets Inc.
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TVE 1-29 Gas Plant
Utilization 50%
Pembina Pipeline
(10 sec with Cardium pay)
infrastructure
TVE Sun Creek GP
Expansion Start Up July/16
TVE 9-24 Compressor Keyera Minnehik Buck Lake TVE Wilson Creek Battery TVE land 2016 Acquisition land TVE Wells spud since 2015 Existing Cardium producers Existing vertical Cardium oil wells Gas plant Battery Pembina oil pipeline Nova gas pipeline Field gathering lines Proposed pipeline
Alder Flats
TVE Truck Terminal
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14.84 12.59 11.27* 10.96* 12.88* 11.17* 10.69 9.06 7.81* 9.12* 9.45* 7.29* 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Operating Costs ($/boe)
Corporate Wilson Creek
Operating & Transportation Costs
* Excluding operating leases entered into Dec/14 and Dec/15
Gas Processing Fee Costs Contract Operator Cost of Transportation - Sales Gas Gas Compression Fee Treating Fees Trucking - Emulsion Surface Lease Rent-Freehold Well Servicing & Minor Workovers Electrical Power Trucking - Clean Oil
Top 10 Corporate Operating Cost Accounts Q4/15
Project Potential Savings ($/month) Wilson Creek Opex Reduction ($/boe) Start-up First Full Quarter 2016 9-24 Compressor Install $80k - $175k $0.67 15-Feb Q2 3rd Party Gas Processing $15k - $30k $0.09 15-Feb Q2 4-14 Battery Truck Terminal $30k - $80k $0.20 15-March Q2 Sun Creek Plant Inlet Compression $75 - $100k $0.38 15-June Q3 Mannville Gas Plant $30k - $70k $0.25 15-Mar Q2
Corporate Budget $12.00
Wilson Creek Budget $8.10
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Parameters Cardium Sst Barons Sst Viking Sst
Age
Depth (m TVD) 1,600 1,200 750 Gross Thickness (m) 17 18 5 Net Pay 6% Cutoff (m) 4 4 5 Porosity Range (%) 5-15 11-15 15-18 Permeability Range (Crdm CGL excl.) (mD) 0.10 - 50 5 - 75 1-50 Water Saturation (Sw) 10-20 30 45 Reservoir Pressure (kPa) 18,000 6,000 4,000 OOIP/Section (MMbbls) 6 4 3 1.5 Mile Avg Drill Times (Days) 9 8 (est.) 3 (1/2 mile) Estimated 1.5 Mile HZ Well EUR (Mboe) – Primary / WF 186 164 / 242 35 (1/2 mile) Average IP30 (boe/d) 578 285 78
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Development Potential:
Pool Status:
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GOR patterns
injectors
higher recovery factors
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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Edm Par ($/bbl)
ROR Payout
2017 Strip as on July 19th Capital ($000s) 2,985 Rate IP30 (boe/d) 523 Reserves (mbbls) 246 Liquids (%) 78% Finding costs ($/boe) $12.12 ROR (%) 467.7% NAV PV10BT ($000s) $5,281 Recycle ratio 3.4 Payout (years) 0.5
Wilson Creek 2.0 Mile
Payout (years) ROR %
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Edm Par ($/bbl)
ROR Payout
2017 Strip as on July 19th Capital ($000s) 2,585 Rate IP30 (boe/d) 393 Reserves (mboe) 184 Liquids (%) 78% Finding costs ($/boe) $14.09 ROR (%) 286% NAV PV10BT ($000s) $4,450 Recycle ratio 2.9 Payout (years) 0.6
Wilson Creek 1.5 Mile
Payout (years) ROR %
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Edm Par ($/bbl)
ROR Payout
2017 Strip as on July 19th Capital ($000s) 2,835 Rate IP30 (boe/d) 762 Reserves (mboe) 310 Liquids (%) 36% Finding costs ($/boe) $9.15 ROR (%) 86.3% NAV PV10BT ($000s) $2,389 Recycle ratio 2.5 Payout (years) 1.1
Alder Flats 1.5 Mile
Payout (years) ROR % Current 12 mo. Strip Current 12 mo. Strip Current 12 mo. Strip
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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Edm Par ($/bbl)
ROR Payout
Redwater Viking
Payout (years) ROR %
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 50 100 150 200 250 300 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
Edm Par ($/bbl)
ROR Payout
2017 Strip as on July 19th Capital ($000s) 3,175 Rate IP30 (boe/d) 312 Reserves (mboe) 270 Liquids (%) 95% Finding costs ($/boe) $11.8 ROR (%) 100% NAV PV10BT ($000s) $4,450 Recycle ratio 3.2 Payout (years) 1.4
Penny Barons
Payout (years) ROR %
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 AECO ($/GJ) $60/bbl Edm Par Flat ROR Payout
2017 Strip as on July 19th Capital ($000s) 2,800 Rate IP30 (boe/d) 568 Reserves (mboe) 699 Liquids (%) 19% Finding costs ($/boe) $4.01 ROR (%) 113% NAV PV10BT ($000s) $4,717 Recycle ratio 3.5 Payout (years) 1.1
Mannville Gas
Payout (years) ROR %
2017 Strip as on July 19th Capital ($000s) 750 Rate IP30 (boe/d) 91 Reserves (mboe) 35 Liquids (%) 80% Finding costs ($/boe) $18.2 ROR (%) 60% NAV PV10BT ($000s) $375 Recycle ratio 1.8 Payout (years) 1.3
Current 12 mo. Strip Current 12 mo. Strip Current 12 mo. Strip
16 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Quick Payback Drilling Inventory
Payout 1.5 Years or Less
Edmonton Par Oil Price (CDN $/bbl) Other Redwater Penny Cardium Booked PUD locations
Total Inventory @ $65/bbl WTI, >25% ROR 431 Locations
$27.50 $35.25 $42.75 $50.50 $58.25 $65.75 $73.50 WTI USD/bbl
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55 136 201 372 340 231
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Operational 2013 2014 2015 2016 budget
Production (boe/d) 3,276 5,717 8,448 9,700 – 10,000 Exit Q4 avg. production (boe/d) 4,718 7,681 9,968 10,800 – 11,000 % Liquids 60 62 60 53 – 57 Cash flow ($mm) 38.2 66.2 60.2 n/a Capital ($mm) 57.5 153.9 50* 45 – 53 Exit debt to cash flow (12-month trailing) 2.0 1.7 1.3 0.9
Corporate
Shares outstanding (mm) 137.0 Fully diluted (mm) 144.6 Share price August 10, 2016 $3.38 Market cap ($mm) $463
$0.77-0.78 Cdn dollar
able to react quickly to drive production growth when commodity prices improve.
* Excludes the $57.5 million Wilson Creek property acquisition on June 15, 2015
$512 Available bank line ($mm) $120 Bank debt at June 30, 2016 ($mm) $49 Projected debt at Dec 31, 2016 ($mm) $53-60
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5 10 15 20 25 30 50 55 60 Free Cash Flow ($ millions)
11,000 boe/d spend $65 mm 12,000 boe/d spend $80 mm
Assumes:
WTI Prices ($US/bbl)
Debt to cash flow <0.9x Debt to cash flow <0.6x Debt to cash flow <0.4x
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10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 13,000 45 50 55 Production (boe/d)
Spend to maintain debt to CF ratio of 1.0x
Assumes:
WTI Prices ($US/bbl)
Cash flow per share growth +15%
CAPEX $62-68 million $95-100 million CAPEX assumes drilling approx. 25-30 net wells Drilling inventory that achieves less than 1.5 years payout at this commodity price gives TVE
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2016 average Cdn $72.69/bbl Assumptions: US dollar hedges were converted to Cdn dollars using strip exchange rates as of January 15, 2016.
Term Hedge Type Volume Cdn Pricing
January 1, 2016 to March 31, 2016
WTI fixed price
2,000 bbls/d Cdn $76.58/bbl April 1, 2016 to June 30, 2016
WTI fixed price
2,400 bbls/d Cdn $76.21/bbl July 1, 2016 to September 30, 2016
WTI fixed price
1,800 bbls/d Cdn $69.92/bbl October 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016
WTI fixed price
2,000 bbls/d Cdn $66.43/bbl January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2017
WTI fixed price
1,700 bbls/d Cdn $59.15/bbl April 1, 2017 to June 30, 2017
WTI fixed price
1,700 bbls/d Cdn $60.24/bbl July 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017
WTI fixed price
800 bbls/d Cdn $63.73/bbl
Term Hedge Type Volume Cdn Pricing
January 1, 2016 to March 31, 2016
AECO fixed price swap
5,000 GJ/d Cdn $3.06/GJ April 1, 2016 to June 30, 2016
AECO fixed price swap
5,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.48/GJ July 1, 2016 to September 30, 2016
AECO fixed price swap
5,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.49/GJ October 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016
AECO fixed price swap
12,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.37/GJ January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2017
AECO fixed price swap
12,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.63/GJ April 1, 2017 to June 30, 2017
AECO fixed price swap
12,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.37/GJ July 1, 2017 to September 30, 2017
AECO fixed price swap
12,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.41/GJ October 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017
AECO fixed price swap
9,000 GJ/d Cdn $2.79/GJ
2016 average Cdn $2.45/GJ 2017 average Cdn $2.53/GJ
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2015 Actuals 2016 Budget
Pro-forma
Average pricing
$48.80/bbl WTI $33.00-40.00/bbl WTI $47.00/bbl WTI
Edm Par
$56.91/bbl $41.00-51.45/bbl $57.00/bbl
AECO (monthly index)
$2.69/GJ $2.00-2.45/GJ $2.38/GJ
$/boe Revenue
34.43 25.00 – 32.00 30.50
Royalties
3.43 (10.0%) 2.50 – 3.45 (10.8%) 3.05 (10.0%)
Operating & transportation costs
11.60 12.00 – 12.50 12.30
Operating income
18.19 8.35 – 15.10 15.15
G&A
2.35 2.40 – 2.65 2.25
Interest
1.66 1.10 – 1.30 1.30
Hedge (gains) / losses
(5.67) (6.00) – (8.50) (3.85)
Cash flow
19.85 12.90 – 17.60 15.45
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Completed $60 mm equity financing Completed Echoex Ltd. acquisition Completed Sure Energy acquisition
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oil & liquids Natural gas Production per share 2014 2015 2016* Production per share (boe/d per million shares) Production (boe/d)
Prod’n per share growth 19.8%
Achieving Production Per Share Growth
* 2016 estimates based on achieving production guidance.
Debt to BOE
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Debt to BOE
Debt per boe/d prod’n decreased by 42%
Completed Wilson Creek acquisition & $125 mm equity financing
Debt to production ($000’s of debt per boe/d) 2014 2015 2016*
three-fold (thru farm-ins, land acquisition and asset acquisitions)
inventory and strong balance sheet
Well Inventory (Payback <1.5 years)
8 20 40 50 18 35 45 67 24 35 40 35 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2013 2014 2015 2016 Quick Payback Drilling Inventory $60 WTI $50 WTI $40 WTI
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Objectives for Q3 2016 / Q4 2016 …
H2/16 prod’n average 9,800 – 10,500 on capital of $20-22 million. Drilling in Alder Flats, Redwater and Penny. Integrate new assets, implement TVE operating procedures in the field and drive business focus to netbacks Execute cost saving & prod’n additions on new assets: WF pattern review; reactivations adds +40 bbls/d; cut opex in Redwater by $4/boe; re-direct remaining volumes in Wilson Creek going through third party facilities to maximize cost reductions Complete TAQA farm-in; drill last well by Q4/16 Integrate new Royalty Framework including new waterflood and recompletion royalties; execute at least one HZ recompletion Expand Wilson Creek truck terminal operation to reduce costs further & identify business case to replicate in Redwater Apply existing M&A criteria to identify tuck-in acquisitions in core areas. Continue to review larger opportunities outside of existing operations. Seek regulatory approval for surface access and for HZ royalty for Penny HZ drilling
What we said we would do What we did in Q1 2016 / Q2 2016…
Assuming $57 million capex case: spend approx. $33.5 million on capex in H1/16 and achieve avg. prod’n of 9,500 – 9,600 boe/d. $40 million case assumes H1/16 spend is $24-26 million and 9,100 – 9,200 boe/d avg. Executed on $40 million case plan spending $28 million, but achieved prod’n at high end
improved from original plan. Complete cost cutting projects to achieve
by $1.00-1.50/boe from Q4/15. Wilson Creek opex target met, resulting in a Q1 & Q2/16 corporate opex beat vs. street consensus Initiate a cost cutting process for smaller contractors, execute trials on cost reducing items for Frac’s. Small contactors changed out resulting in lower capex costs. 2-mile well successful with total well cost per frac reduced by 20% Manage to hedge policy. Layer in a position for 2017. Hedged to policy maximum at prices that guarantee 1.5 year payout or less on next years drills Finish input on Royalty Review. Focus on depth targets, waterflood and recompletions. Success for industry; TVE staff contributed
Drill 3 out of 4 remaining Farm-in commitments in H1/16. Renegotiate or drop remaining term with major. One commitment well left to be drilled by Q4/16 to complete the contract M&A similar to last years criteria. Divert drilling capex if better economics to buy production and inventory. Completed 8 deals; 6 small tuck-ins and 2 totaling $85 million announced in June/16 Complete and integrate new internal reporting
the field to drive accountability and decisions. New system up and running. Integration to processes will occur for 2017 budget strategy meetings in Sept/16
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Current: CAPP Chair, IOGC Advisor, Director Aspenleaf Energy Former: Spearpoint Energy (President), Apache Canada (President) Shell Canada (Manager Plains Business Unit)
Current: Local Advisory Committee – TSX-Venture Exchange Former: Vaquero Energy, Storm Energy, Renaissance Energy
Former: Bonavista, Storm Energy
Former: Vaquero Energy, Beau Canada
Former: Apache Canada, Shell Canada
Former: Spearpoint Energy, Rock Energy, Apache Canada
Current Directorships: Cimarex Energy, Source Energy Former: EVP - Apache Corp
Current: Corporate Partner – Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP Former: Chairman- Board of Angle Energy, Chair of Calgary Chapter- Institute of Corporate Directors
Current: Sr. VP Liquids – Keyera Corp Former: CFO – Laricina Energy, VP & CFO Keyera Corp
Current: President - Lincon Companies Former: CEO - Avant Garde, Director - Tusk Energy
Current: President – Evsam Holdings, Chair – Petro America Oil Corp Former: Chairman Sure Energy, Former Vermillion founder, Director: Northern Shield Resources, Arpetrol
Reserve Evaluators – GLJ Petroleum Consultants Legal – Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP Auditors – KPMG LLP
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1. Build a sustainable, predictable and reliable growth company
and below industry average costs
2. Demonstrate transparency and credibility with the market
3. Manage the balance sheet
pricing
4. Align management rewards to shareholder returns
group performance
5. Manage to become a company that produces 15,000 to 20,000 boe/d with a robust drilling inventory
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Source: NBF, geoSCOUT, Company Reports
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136 179 578 578 710** 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2009-2013 2013-2014 2015 2015 2016-2017 BOEPD
Industry IP 30 Rates Cost Per Frac
$145/stage $105/stage $92/stage $64/stage $58/stage $52/stage
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2014 2014 2015 2016 2016 Outlook 2016 Target Capital cost ($000s/stage) $/ Stage
1 mile 1.5 mile 1.5 mile 1.5 mile 1.5 mile 2.0 mile
2009-2013 *ROR n/a NPV $(2.2)
O/H Ball Drop Capital $4.2 million Stages 8-10 Oil frac 5-10 tons 1-mile
2013-2014 *ROR n/a NPV $(1.0)
O/H Ball Drop Capital $3.5 million Stages 20-25 Slick Water 20-25 tons 1-mile
2015 *ROR 218% NPV $2.3
O/H Ball Drop Capital $2.9 million Stages 38-42 Slick Water 20-25 tons 1.5-mile
2016-2017 *ROR >500% NPV $4.2
Cemented Liner Capital $3.0 million Stages 55 Slick Water 20-25 tons 2-mile
2015 *ROR 352% NPV $2.6
Cemented Liner Capital $2.6 million Stages 38-42 Slick Water 20-25 tons 1.5-mile
* Constant price assumptions for comparative analysis WTI $60.00/bbl $2.50/GJ ** Estimated results
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1,680 1,520 1,379 1,379 1,300 1,300 1,050 1,051 1,051 850 393 375 247 247 300
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
H2/14 2015 Budget New Design 2016 Budget Outlook
Capex ($000s)
Equip+Tie-in Completions Drilling
2,945
1.5 mile 1.5 mile 1.5 mile
2,450 3,373
1.5 mile 1.5 mile
Capital Costs
2,677 2,677