County of Middlesex Employment Land Needs Study Lauren Millie r, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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County of Middlesex Employment Land Needs Study Lauren Millie r, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MAY 8, 2012 Page 1 of 15 11. A. 1 - CW County of Middlesex Employment Land Needs Study Lauren Millie r, Millier Dickinson Blais Presented by Jamie Cook, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. May 8, 2012 MAY 8, 2012 Page 2 of 15 11. A. 1 -

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Presented by

County of Middlesex

Employment Land Needs Study

Lauren Millier, Millier Dickinson Blais Jamie Cook, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. May 8, 2012

MAY 8, 2012 Page 1 of 15

  • 11. A. 1 - CW
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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2

Study Overview

  • Introduction

– County retained Millier Dickinson Blais and Watson & Associates to prepare an Employment Land Needs Study.

  • Study Process

– Economic Base Analysis; – Assessment of Employment Lands Supply; – Development of Long-Term Employment Forecast; – Employment Land Needs Analysis; – Employment Areas Assessment and Evaluation; – Strategic Recommendations.

Employment Land Needs Study - The Process

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 3

What are Employment Lands?

  • The Provincial Policy

Statement (2005) defines employment lands as “those areas designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic activities including, but not limited to, manufacturing, warehousing, offices, and associated retail and ancillary facilities.”

Employment Land Needs Study – Defining Employment Lands

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 4

Economic Base Analysis

  • County’s economic base concentrated in manufacturing, agriculture, health

and social services and retail trade.

  • Provincial and regional economy seeing shift from “goods producing” to

“service producing” sectors.

  • Manufacturing faces external challenges.
  • County’s employment areas remain primarily oriented towards traditional

sectors, especially manufacturing, construction and distribution.

  • Strongest growth prospects for employment areas include transportation and

warehousing, wholesale distribution and “knowledge-based” sectors.

  • Business base increasingly oriented to small businesses (<10 employees).

Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 5

Employment Land Supply

  • Middlesex County’s total gross supply of vacant

employment lands totals 1,049 ha (2,593 acres).

  • The amount of net vacant employment lands to

accommodate long-term demand is approximately 703 ha (1,737 acres).

  • The current supply of serviced “shovel ready” vacant

employment land totals 261 net ha (645 net acres).

Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 6

Long-Term Employment Forecast

  • Middlesex County’s total employment is expected to grow from 24,055 in 2011 to

28,780 by 2031, an increase of 4,715 jobs (average annual increase of 0.9%).

  • Employment growth over the period is expected to be concentrated in Strathroy-

Caradoc, Middlesex Centre and Thames Centre. Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings

Strathroy- Caradoc 31% Middlesex Centre 30% Thames Centre 26% Lucan Biddulph 6% Adelaide Metcalfe 3% Southwest Middlesex 3% North Middlesex 1% Newbury <1%

Middlesex County Forecast Employment Growth by Local Municipality, 2011-2031

22,520 21,820 22,915 24,055 25,450 26,890 27,950 28,780 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Employment

Year

Middlesex County Employment Historical (1996-2011) and Forecast (2011-2031)

Historical Forecast

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 7

Employment Land Needs

  • Over the 2011-2031 period, Middlesex County’s employment lands are anticipated to

accommodate 44% (2,065 jobs) of the County’s total employment growth.

  • Over the forecast period, employment land demand is anticipated to total 126 net acres

(311 net acres); average of 6 net ha (16 net acres) annually.

  • County-wide, Middlesex County is expected to have a surplus of 472 net ha (1,165 net

acres) of employment land by 2031.

  • All of the County’s local municipalities are anticipated to have net surpluses of vacant

employment land to 2031.

  • Over the longer term (i.e. 2021-2031), the opportunities for accommodating forecast

growth on existing “shovel ready” lands is sufficient in all local municipalities, except in Middlesex Centre.

Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 8

Employment Areas Assessment - Overview

  • Assessment of County’s key existing employment areas:

– Based on ability to meet current demand and growth prospects.

  • Consideration given to:

– Physical Characteristics; – Access/Circulation; – Servicing; – Development Opportunities; – Target Sector Attractiveness.

Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 9

Employment Area Assessment – Key Findings

Based on analysis regarding the requirements of specific target sectors and the attributes of employment areas:

  • The Molnar Industrial Park in

Strathroy-Caradoc is the best positioned of the County’s industrial areas to accommodate a wide range

  • f industrial uses.
  • The DaVinci Business Park is suited to

a broad range of uses within a relatively prestige setting, but has limited “shovel ready” lands.

Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings

6 8 10 10 11 11 14 5 10 15

South Putnam Industrial Area Lucan Industrial Park Donnybrook Glencoe industrial Park Da Vinci Business Park Thondale Industrial Park Molnar Industrial Park

Employment Areas - Overall Score

(Maximum Score Potential of 15)

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 10

Employment Area Assessment – Key Findings

  • Glencoe Industrial Park, Lucan Industrial Park and Thorndale Industrial

Park offer a range of opportunities for development and are well positioned to accommodate employment in the manufacturing and construction sector.

  • Donnybrook and the South Putnam Industrial Area are suited for

transportation, warehousing and construction, but their lack of municipal servicing limits their development potential.

Employment Land Needs Study – Key Findings

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 11

Strategic Recommendations

The strategic recommendations for Middlesex County and its local municipalities fall into three thematic areas:

  • Employment Lands Protection;
  • Targeted Marketing;
  • Developable Land Supply and Provision for Market Choice.

Employment Land Needs Study – Recommendations

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 12

Employment Lands Protection

  • Employment lands should be protected from conversion to non-

employment uses through: – Limiting employment lands conversions to non-employment uses; – Adopting a standard framework for reviewing employment land conversion applications (both occupied and vacant sites) based on planning and economic criteria .

  • Review permitted commercial, community and institutional uses within

employment areas: – The provision for select commercial, community and institutional uses within employment areas should be assessed against the impact on industrial uses and the viability of the employment area.

Employment Land Needs Study – Recommendations

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 13

Targeted Marketing

  • Targeted marketing of employment areas, including:

– Development of a system for tracking County-wide development- related data; – Preparation of more comprehensive marketing materials and resources (signage) to highlight available employment lands and employment areas; – Greater regional and sector-specific collaboration on industrial and employment lands marketing activities; – More action-oriented marketing of high-priority employment areas.

Employment Land Needs Study – Recommendations

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 14

Developable Land Supply and Provision for Market Choice

  • A balanced inventory of “shovel ready” and developable vacant

employment lands is required that is sufficient to meet market demand in the short, medium and longer term.

  • Requires ongoing and regular monitoring of employment land inventory

to ensure adequate market choice.

  • Longer term planning and development, including:

– Consideration of short- to medium-term servicing of Komoka West employment lands; – Medium- to long-term options for employment land development in Thames Centre and along the Highway 401 corridor; and – Consideration of longer-term development opportunities in South Ilderton, subject to market choice and employment land inventory.

Employment Land Needs Study - Recommendations

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Millier Dickinson Blais, Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 15

Thank you

  • Q+A

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