[PPT] - CONSULTANT TEAM PRESENTATION ON PA SEPT 14 REVISED PLAN September PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

CONSULTANT TEAM PRESENTATION ON PA SEPT 14 REVISED PLAN

►September 27, 2018

SLIDE 2

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

AGENDA

►Introduction ►High level Plan metrics ►Cross-Cutting Observations ►C&I Observations ►Residential Observations ►Low Income Observations ►Next Steps

| 2

SLIDE 3

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

INTRODUCTION

►Plan well written with more EEAC recommendations addressed ►Small increase in savings over April 30th draft − Electric savings increased to 2.47% from 2.29%, but still well below Consultant recommendation of 2.90% − Gas increased from 1.04% to 1.08%; Consultants at 1.26% − Lifetime MMBtu increased 6%, but 30% lower than the Consultant estimate ►As a result, Consultant summary focused on high level

indicators and written text

− More detail provided, but still needed in some important areas − Increase in benefits larger than increase in savings

Additional amount attributable to inclusion of Avoided Cost of Compliance with

GWSA

►Consultant Team opinion: Savings too low and costs too high;

More work needed

| 3

SLIDE 4

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

200,000

400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 MWh

Portfolio Annual Electric Savings

Planned Evaluated Q4 2017 Consultant Assessment of Potential PA 2016-2018 April 30th Draft Consultant Goals Estimate PA 2019-2021 April 30th Draft PA 2019-2021 Sept 14th Draft

ELECTRIC PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS OVER TIME

| 4

3.26%* 2.90%* 2.29%*

*Three-Year Average. Calculations revised using updated sales forecasts, which increase % of sales.

3.18% 2.93% 2.50% 2.47%*

SLIDE 5

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 ELECTRIC PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS GOALS

| 5 *Calculations updated using updated sales forecasts

Annual MWh Assessment of Potential Consultant Estimate PA April 30th Draft Plan PA Sept 14th Revised Plan Residential 1,162,468 1,085,416 935,090 1,008,723 Low Income 117,426 117,426 105,057 110,377 C&I 2,908,432 2,522,472 1,898,835 2,056,517 Total 4,188,327 3,725,314 2,938,982 3,175,617 Savings as % of Sales Assessment of Potential* Consultant Estimate PA April 30th Draft Plan PA Sept 14th Revised Plan Residential 2.81% 2.62% 2.26% 2.43% Low Income 2.13% 2.13% 1.91% 2.04% C&I 3.57% 3.10% 2.33% 2.52% Total 3.26% 2.90% 2.29% 2.47%

SLIDE 6

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 ELECTRIC PROGRAM LIFETIME SAVINGS GOALS

| 6

Lifetime MWh Consultant Estimate PA April 30th Draft Plan PA Sept 14th Revised Plan Residential 4,156,652 4,820,892 4,617,602 Low Income 1,138,068 1,003,086 1,137,336 C&I 32,314,112 23,133,721 27,766,487 Total 37,608,833 28,957,699 33,521,426

SLIDE 7

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT GOALS

| 7

ADM Summer Peak MW Consultant Estimate PA April 30th Draft Plan PA Sept 14th Revised Plan Res & LI T-stats/Direct Load Control 25.5 9.5 15.1 C&I Curtailment 140.2 106.6 138.0 Storage - BTM 84.3 4.0 33.5 Total (w/ storage) 250.0 120.1 186.6

SLIDE 8

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

CONSULTANT 2019-2021 GAS PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS GOALS

| 8 *Calculations updated using updated sales forecasts

Annual Therms Assessment of Potential Consultant Estimate PA April 30th Draft Plan PA Sept 14th Revised Plan Residential 75,587,050 53,841,700 44,549,544 41,901,021 Low Income 7,433,051 7,433,051 7,076,868 6,814,099 C&I 44,263,209 35,588,928 28,520,920 34,205,532 Total 127,283,310 96,863,679 80,147,332 82,920,651 Savings as % of Sales Assessment of Potential* Consultant Estimate PA April 30th Draft Plan PA Sept 14th Revised Plan Residential 2.16% 1.54% 1.28% 1.20% Low Income 1.78% 1.78% 1.70% 1.63% C&I 1.16% 0.93% 0.75% 0.90% Total 1.65% 1.25% 1.04% 1.08%

SLIDE 9

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Million Therms

Portfolio Annual Gas Savings

Planned Evaluated Q4 2017 Consultant Assessment of Potential PA 2016-2018 April 30th Draft Consultant Goals Estimate PA 2019-2021 April 30th Draft PA 2019-2021 Sept 14th Draft

GAS PROGRAM ANNUAL SAVINGS OVER TIME

| 9

1.65%* 1.26%* 1.04%* 1.25% 1.09% 1.24%

*Three-Year Average. Calculations revised using updated sales forecasts.

1.08%*

SLIDE 10

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

CROSS CUTTING – TRAINING

►Provide general customer training on managing

demand, GHG, heat pumps, fuel options

− Provide training to energy specialists on how to convey fuel

ptions and information

►Increase specificity in HVAC and Lighting training for

professionals:

− RCx implementers, MBx implementers, controls programmers, architects, engineers, designers ►Define a strategy to educate C&I contractors in small

business heat pump opportunities

| 10

SLIDE 11

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

CROSS CUTTING – EVALUATION

►Proactively plan for market effects now to reap savings

later - “call your shot” (i.e. HVAC)

►Est. protocols for creating test initiatives or pilot

programs, tracking variables, and publishing results summaries

►Adjust methods to reflect changes in market and

technologies (i.e. Updating TLED delta watts)

►Ensure value to customers by continually increasing

realization rates

| 11

SLIDE 12

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept. 14 Revised Plan

CROSS CUTTING – ENERGY OPTIMIZATION PROMOTED AS FUEL NEUTRAL APPROACH

| 12

►PAs plan to:

− Provide information on fuel/system options, cost, and environmental impacts − Offer conversion incentives for

il/propane to electric hp

− Structure equipment incentives based on $ per MMBtu saved

►Customers won’t receive specific heating/hot

water system recommendation

►No C&I fuel switching included in Plan

SLIDE 13

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

CROSS CUTTING – SOME ENERGY OPTIMIZATION UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN

►Many different baseline conditions and

scenarios; unclear how incentive levels, savings, and costs determined

►Oil to gas fuel switching included in Plan ►Proposed number of heat pumps considerably

lower than Consultant assumption

►No discussion in Plan of fuel choice in new

homes/businesses

►Unclear whether or how customers will be

targeted

| 13

SLIDE 14

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

C&I - CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT STRATEGIES NEED MORE DETAIL

►Need more specificity in how to effectively engage

customers and promote systems approaches

►Provide more detail about how to educate customers − C&I HVAC and lighting controls, RCx, heat pumps ►Need to be more proactive in soliciting new program

ideas (e.g. NYSERDA, CA)

►Unclear whether PAs engaging enough market

channels effectively

| 14

SLIDE 15

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

C&I – HVAC AND COMMISSIONING ARE CRITICAL TO THE FUTURE

►Custom HVAC is large source of C&I usage as well as

program savings…

►Yet HVAC savings have been declining; Plan must

describe efforts to reverse trend and reflect in savings goals

►Plan must reflect best practices for commissioning

across existing and new construction

− Accelerate planning for and adoption of best practices ►Plan needs to drive change in HVAC market in order

to capture market effects into the future

| 15

SLIDE 16

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

C&I – LIGHTING IS STILL #1 FOR SAVINGS

►Lighting savings remain the largest

C&I end use opportunity

►Controls and training are a focus in

revised Plan

►Controls are the biggest variable for

both savings and demand

− Multiple controls are common (occupancy, daylighting, dimming) − Network controls can respond to demand events − Plan includes some training for controls, but more support could be justified by demand savings

| 16

SLIDE 17

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

C&I – PROCESS SAVINGS DECLINE

►Plan discusses an expansion of the

industrial initiative

►Plan says PAs doubling efforts to

help customers and remove barriers

►But proposed savings lower than

achieved in recent years

| 17

SLIDE 18

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

C&I - COUNCIL UPDATES AND REPORTING

►Maintain current reporting ►Add reporting on additional indicators: − Twice annual updates on vendor-based programs:

Upstream lighting
Small Business Turnkey/Direct Install
Process and other industrial initiative savings
Strategic Energy Management (SEM)
Grocery, restaurant, CRE, and other vendor-

based segment engagement strategies

| 18

►Regular CIMC updates on progress in HVAC,

commissioning, customer engagement, training, connection between EMV and implementation

SLIDE 19

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

►Improved explanation of RCD initiative ►Pre-weatherization financing added to HEAT Loan ►Additional support for non-English speakers ►Enhanced heating equipment education ►Facilitated services for knob & tube and combustion

safety

►Point of purchase instant rebates ►Detailed Passive House offer ►Zero energy ready incentive

REVISED RES PLAN INCLUDES SOME POSITIVE ADDITIONS

| 19

SLIDE 20

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept. 14 Revised Plan

BUT RESIDENTIAL PLANNING VERY MUCH STILL IN PROGRESS

► Many key elements are to

be developed or explored and lack implementation dates

► State of plan prevents

assessment of reasonableness of savings and costs

► Consultant

recommendation: At a minimum, PAs should provide list of all planned enhancements and estimated implementation dates

| 20

Creating a more holistic and integrated approach to serving moderate and lower income customers Explore new ways of partnering with trade allies Exploring development of an online calculator Plan to expand midstream HVAC measures Reviewing the customer journey from the perspective of non-English speakers Customers will be offered more information and technology choices

SLIDE 21

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept. 14 Revised Plan

BUT RES PLAN LACKS FUNDAMENTAL INNOVATION

| 21

Enhanced intake and

nline audit

process Facilitated services Enhanced trade relationships True streamlining

f customer

experience True streamlining

f customer

experience Align program

ffers with

contractor business models and value proposition Align program

ffers with

contractor business models and value proposition Single customer point of access to monitor progress and engage in two- way communication with program ► 2019-2021 residential program uses same basic structure

and delivery in place since 2012, based on program innovations that date back to the mid-1990s

► Changes PAs propose are continuous improvements

rather than true innovation and redesign

SLIDE 22

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept. 14 Revised Plan

RES CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT: NO COHESIVE STRATEGY

► PAs propose investments in

multiple new single- purpose customer engagement platforms

► Unclear how important data

from these tools can be shared across platforms

| 22

Engagement Tools Already In Play

Individual PA Customer Engagement Platforms
Online Energy Assessment
New Construction Portal
Mass Save Retail Platform
Mass Save Application Portal
LEAN’s LIMF Enrollment Portal
Income Verification tool
Home Energy Reports
Home Energy Assessment Reports
3rd Party Benchmarking Tools

Proposed New Investments

POP Instant Rebate Platform
Active Demand Management Platform
Temperature Optimization Platform
Scoring Tool

SLIDE 23

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept. 14 Revised Plan

CONTINUOUS RE-ENGAGEMENT, PA VS. CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVE

| 23

Customer Perspective PA Perspective

SLIDE 24

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

Mass Save phone line

in 5 languages

Review of customer

journey

Follow up written

communications in preferred language

Mass Save phone line

in 5 languages

Review of customer

journey

Follow up written

communications in preferred language

PROGRESS ON SERVING ALL RES CUSTOMERS, BUT MORE IS NEEDED

| 24

Renters

90% landlord

insulation incentive

Customized path for

larger buildings

Tailored savings

package for renters

90% landlord

insulation incentive

Customized path for

larger buildings

Tailored savings

package for renters

Dedicated HVAC

approaches

Enhanced rental
utreach/marketing

strategy

Dedicated HVAC

approaches

Enhanced rental
utreach/marketing

strategy

Moderate Income

Continuation of

current incentives

Simplified/streamlined

experience (all res customers)

Continuation of

current incentives

Simplified/streamlined

experience (all res customers)

Changes to income

qualification process

Incentives for new

measures

Changes to income

qualification process

Incentives for new

measures

Non-English Speakers

Timeline for

implementation

More focus on

interaction with contractors

Timeline for

implementation

More focus on

interaction with contractors PLAN PLAN STILL NEEDED STILL NEEDED

SLIDE 25

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

MORE ROBUST PARTNERSHIP AND OUTREACH STRATEGY IS REQUIRED

| 25

►PAs’ statewide municipal and community

partnership strategy a positive step

►But more work needed to realize full potential − Increase emphasis on integrated, consistent pathways and two-way partnerships − Provide formalized partnership opportunities with municipalities, including community-based

rganizations, supported by appropriate resources

− Engage stakeholders to identify and incorporate best practices over time ►Consultant recommendation: PAs complete

formal partnership plan with stakeholder engagement process by April 2019

SLIDE 26

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept. 14 Revised Plan

DETAILED PASSIVE HOUSE OFFER INCLUDED

► Focus on multi-unit projects

in res and C&I sectors

► Plan to add 90 Passive

House professionals through subsidized trainings and certifications

► Incentives available for

multiple steps in process: − Modeling − Design team − Design charrette − Certification − Performance incentive

| 26 Graphic credit: Richard Pedranti Architect

SLIDE 27

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

LOW INCOME DATA MANAGEMENT AND CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT STILL NEEDED

| 27

►Program Highlights − Preserves existing delivery structure, procedures, and strategies − Enhancements include:

Heat pump trial
Communicating thermostats and Active Demand Management
Coordinated service delivery with market rate program for 1-4

unit mixed use buildings

►Missed Program Enhancement

Opportunities

− Data Collection and Management − Marketing/Customer Engagement

SLIDE 28

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

RES - COUNCIL UPDATES AND REPORTING

►Maintain current reporting ►Provide twice annual reporting to

EEAC on additional priority indicators:

− Number of rental units served − Number of moderate income customers income verified and weatherized − Participation, expenditures and savings

Excluding lighting and behavior
By Census block group (separately for

residential and low income)

− Participation, savings and costs for multifamily projects in all sectors

| 28

►Regular RMC updates on progress in implementing

components of plan, particularly results of any trials/demonstrations

SLIDE 29

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

NEXT STEPS

►TBD

| 29

SLIDE 30

www.ma-eeac.org Consultant Team Presentation on Sept 14 Revised Plan

COUNCIL PRIORITIES IN SEPT 14 PA PLAN

Priority Addressed Partially Addressed Not Addressed

r Unclear

Increase underserved customer participation X Include Active Demand Management goals X Promote/incentivize fuel switching X Provide new integrated res program design X Increase C&I HVAC, process, lighting, CHP savings X Promote ZEBs and Passive House X Establish integrated multi-family framework X Review low-income programs for improvements X Modernize data management X

| 30

SLIDE 31