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SLIDE 1

Constraints on the sources of Arctic CO from  AIRS, ARCTAS, and the GEOS‐Chem model 

Jenny A. Fisher 

Harvard University 

Daniel Jacob, Monika Kopacz, Meghan Purdy  Claire Carouge, Philippe Le Sager, Bob Yantosca

     Harvard University 

Wallace McMillan, Juying Warner

           U. Maryland, Baltimore County 

Glenn Diskin  

                   NASA Langley Research Center 

Edward Hyer    

                 UCAR/Naval Research Laboratory 

Rebecca Batchelor

                 University of Toronto 

Henry Fuelberg  

                 Florida State University 

NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting  May 5, 2009 

SLIDE 2

GOAL: Assess pollution transport to the Arctic using AIRS  combined with ARCTAS aircraft data and GEOS‐Chem model  

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Motivation: Arctic is a known receptor of midlatitudes pollution, but sources and transport  pathways are uncertain 

NOAA 

Approach: Integrated analysis of carbon monoxide (CO) from: 

1. AIRS – Version 5 Level 2 CO columns, daytime observations only, gridded to 2°x2.5°

model resolution 

2. GEOS‐Chem – Chemical transport model (CTM), simulated CO is convolved with AIRS

averaging kernels 

3. ARCTAS – NASA aircraft campaign during April 2008, based in Fairbanks, AK

SLIDE 3

AIRS is a promising dataset for high‐latitude analysis 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Gridded AIRS CO column on 4/17/08  Substantial polar coverage on a daily basis  Less inhibited by pervasive Arctic cloudiness  than other satellite instruments  High degrees of freedom for signal (DOFS), even  in high latitudes (DOFS > 0.5 shown here)  Promising for the Arctic, but how does AIRS CO  compare to other satellite observations?  Test with comparison via GEOS‐Chem CTM 

SLIDE 4

AIRS CO column is generally consistent globally with other satellite  data sets 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

 r  = 0.81  slope 0.76   r  = 0.85  slope 0.71     r  = 0.91                    slope 0.88  r  = 0.49                    slope 0.82     r  = 0.54                    slope 0.62 

GEOS‐Chem CTM  GEOS‐Chem CTM 

4 3 2 1 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 1 2 3•1018 molec/cm2

DOFS  AIRS  MOPITT  TES 

0.5  1.0  1.5  100 200 300 ppb 300 200 100

SCIAMACHY  (Bremen)  SCIAMACHY  (SRON)  GMD &  MOZAIC 

   r  = 0.82                    slope 0.78  Courtesy M. Kopacz 

SLIDE 5

The datasets are less consistent and show higher biases in  Northern Hemisphere spring 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09  Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Percent Difference (Data – Model)  Highest AIRS vs. model  difference in NH spring  Higher AIRS vs. MOPITT  discrepancy in NH Spring  Most consistency of all  instruments without  spring data 

In general, the different instruments (especially AIRS & MOPITT) are consistent and  all show a low bias in GEOS‐Chem, especially in spring. 

Courtesy M. Kopacz 

SLIDE 6

ARCTAS (2008) provided a unique dataset for polar analysis 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

ARCTAS 

Coordinated aircraft campaign (NASA + NOAA + DOE + Europeans + … )  Simultaneous intensive surface sampling  Focus on validation of polar‐orbiting satellites, including AIRS 

Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites 

SLIDE 7

Intense, early fires in Russia led to high CO in April 2008 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09  Fire Pixel Counts 

mean  1σ 

= April

2002     2003     2004     2005     2006     2007     2008 

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center 

GEOS‐Chem CO emissions  MODIS fire counts 

SLIDE 8

GEOS‐Chem showed low bias relative to in‐situ observations 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

GEOS‐Chem and aircraft profiles  GEOS‐Chem and ground‐based FTIR  columns at Eureka 

SLIDE 9

GEOS‐Chem showed low bias relative to in‐situ observations 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

GEOS‐Chem and aircraft profiles  GEOS‐Chem and ground‐based FTIR  columns at Eureka  GEOS‐Chem Source adjustments: 

North American pollution    1.04  European pollution      1.39  Asian pollution        1.23  Russian biomass burning    0.21  Asian biomass burning      0.32 

SLIDE 10

Even with source adjustment, GEOS‐Chem is lower than AIRS  throughout Arctic and midlatitudes 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

AIRS  GEOS‐Chem 

‐20        0      20  % 

% Diff. 

Difference likely reflects known high bias in AIRS CO  Largest bias over Russian fire region  source adjustment too severe?  Lowest bias over North American Arctic (i.e. ARCTAS region) 

SLIDE 11

Observed pollution from North America (April 5, 2008) 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09  Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART  Davis Strait enhancement seen in  AIRS, aircraft, and GEOS‐Chem  Good spatial agreement between  AIRS and model throughout Arctic 

SLIDE 12

Observed pollution from Europe & Asia (April 9, 2008) 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART  GEOS‐Chem shows roughly equal  contributions from Europe and Asia  No enhancement in AIRS, likely due  to low altitude (>1000 hPa) of 

bservation

SLIDE 13

Observed pollution from Russian fires (April 16, 2008) 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART  High consistency between AIRS,  aircraft, and GEOS‐Chem over Norton  Sound and throughout Arctic  Observed enhancement was offshoot 

f main plume

SLIDE 14

GEOS‐Chem shows the influence of different source regions on  Arctic CO concentrations 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Asian FF important at all  altitudes  European FF important  near surface  No major impact from  North American FF or  Russian/Asian BB 

SLIDE 15

AIRS 6‐year record provides context for 2008 results 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

Mean AIRS CO, April 2008  April 2008 AIRS CO anomaly 

Courtesy M. Purdy 

High CO  from fires  Increased export  from Europe  Lower‐than‐average  CO over Alaska 

SLIDE 16

Climate impacted transport and CO accumulation in 2008 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

AIRS CO in Bering/Chukchi Seas and DJF Ocean Niño Index  R=0.86  La Niña 

Courtesy M. Purdy 

2008 sea level pressure anomaly  2008 La Niña conditions led to weakened Aleutian low  Weakened low decreased transport to Alaska  Result was lower CO over N. American Arctic, despite increased source in Russia 

SLIDE 17

Summary 

Jenny Fisher                                                                                         NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting, 5/5/09 

1.  AIRS CO column data is generally consistent with other satellite observations. 
2.  Mid‐tropospheric pollution transport to the Arctic is evident in AIRS, GEOS‐Chem, and

ARCTAS in‐situ data and is dominated by Asian fossil fuels. 

3. Low‐altitude pollution transport from Europe was observed by aircraft but not by AIRS. 
4. Despite extremely large fires in Russia in April 2008, the impact of biomass burning on

Arctic CO concentrations was minimal relative to European and Asian pollution 

5. April 2008 showed above‐average export of CO from Europe and lower‐than‐average CO 
ver Alaska, which can be explained by transport changes associated with the La Niña‐

induced weakening of the Aleutian Low pressure system. 

Acknowledgements:  National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship          NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program  Contact:  Jenny Fisher, jafisher@fas.harvard.edu 

Constraints on the sources of Arctic CO from AIRS, ARCTAS, and the GEOS‐Chem model

Jenny A. Fisher

Harvard University

Daniel Jacob, Monika Kopacz, Meghan Purdy Claire Carouge, Philippe Le Sager, Bob Yantosca

Harvard University

Wallace McMillan, Juying Warner

U. Maryland, Baltimore County

Glenn Diskin

NASA Langley Research Center

Edward Hyer

UCAR/Naval Research Laboratory

Rebecca Batchelor

University of Toronto

Henry Fuelberg

Florida State University

NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting May 5, 2009

GOAL: Assess pollution transport to the Arctic using AIRS combined with ARCTAS aircraft data and GEOS‐Chem model

Motivation: Arctic is a known receptor of midlatitudes pollution, but sources and transport pathways are uncertain

Approach: Integrated analysis of carbon monoxide (CO) from:

model resolution

averaging kernels

AIRS is a promising dataset for high‐latitude analysis

AIRS CO column is generally consistent globally with other satellite data sets

GEOS‐Chem CTM GEOS‐Chem CTM

DOFS AIRS MOPITT TES

SCIAMACHY (Bremen) SCIAMACHY (SRON) GMD & MOZAIC

The datasets are less consistent and show higher biases in Northern Hemisphere spring

Percent Difference (Data – Model) Highest AIRS vs. model difference in NH spring Higher AIRS vs. MOPITT discrepancy in NH Spring Most consistency of all instruments without spring data

In general, the different instruments (especially AIRS & MOPITT) are consistent and all show a low bias in GEOS‐Chem, especially in spring.

ARCTAS (2008) provided a unique dataset for polar analysis

ARCTAS

Coordinated aircraft campaign (NASA + NOAA + DOE + Europeans + … ) Simultaneous intensive surface sampling Focus on validation of polar‐orbiting satellites, including AIRS

Intense, early fires in Russia led to high CO in April 2008

GEOS‐Chem CO emissions MODIS fire counts

GEOS‐Chem showed low bias relative to in‐situ observations

GEOS‐Chem and aircraft profiles GEOS‐Chem and ground‐based FTIR columns at Eureka

GEOS‐Chem showed low bias relative to in‐situ observations

GEOS‐Chem and aircraft profiles GEOS‐Chem and ground‐based FTIR columns at Eureka GEOS‐Chem Source adjustments:

Even with source adjustment, GEOS‐Chem is lower than AIRS throughout Arctic and midlatitudes

AIRS GEOS‐Chem

% Diff.

Difference likely reflects known high bias in AIRS CO Largest bias over Russian fire region  source adjustment too severe? Lowest bias over North American Arctic (i.e. ARCTAS region)

Observed pollution from North America (April 5, 2008)

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART Davis Strait enhancement seen in AIRS, aircraft, and GEOS‐Chem Good spatial agreement between AIRS and model throughout Arctic

Observed pollution from Europe & Asia (April 9, 2008)

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART GEOS‐Chem shows roughly equal contributions from Europe and Asia No enhancement in AIRS, likely due to low altitude (>1000 hPa) of

Observed pollution from Russian fires (April 16, 2008)

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART High consistency between AIRS, aircraft, and GEOS‐Chem over Norton Sound and throughout Arctic Observed enhancement was offshoot

GEOS‐Chem shows the influence of different source regions on Arctic CO concentrations

Asian FF important at all altitudes European FF important near surface No major impact from North American FF or Russian/Asian BB

AIRS 6‐year record provides context for 2008 results

Mean AIRS CO, April 2008 April 2008 AIRS CO anomaly

High CO from fires Increased export from Europe Lower‐than‐average CO over Alaska

Climate impacted transport and CO accumulation in 2008

AIRS CO in Bering/Chukchi Seas and DJF Ocean Niño Index R=0.86 La Niña

2008 sea level pressure anomaly 2008 La Niña conditions led to weakened Aleutian low Weakened low decreased transport to Alaska Result was lower CO over N. American Arctic, despite increased source in Russia

Summary

ARCTAS in‐situ data and is dominated by Asian fossil fuels.

Arctic CO concentrations was minimal relative to European and Asian pollution

induced weakening of the Aleutian Low pressure system.

Constraints on the sources of Arctic CO from  AIRS, ARCTAS, and the GEOS‐Chem model 

Jenny A. Fisher 

Harvard University 

Daniel Jacob, Monika Kopacz, Meghan Purdy  Claire Carouge, Philippe Le Sager, Bob Yantosca

     Harvard University 

Wallace McMillan, Juying Warner

           U. Maryland, Baltimore County 

Glenn Diskin  

                   NASA Langley Research Center 

Edward Hyer    

                 UCAR/Naval Research Laboratory 

Rebecca Batchelor

                 University of Toronto 

Henry Fuelberg  

                 Florida State University 

NASA Sounding Science Team Meeting  May 5, 2009 

GOAL: Assess pollution transport to the Arctic using AIRS  combined with ARCTAS aircraft data and GEOS‐Chem model  

Motivation: Arctic is a known receptor of midlatitudes pollution, but sources and transport  pathways are uncertain 

Approach: Integrated analysis of carbon monoxide (CO) from: 

model resolution 

averaging kernels 

AIRS is a promising dataset for high‐latitude analysis 

AIRS CO column is generally consistent globally with other satellite  data sets 

GEOS‐Chem CTM  GEOS‐Chem CTM 

DOFS  AIRS  MOPITT  TES 

SCIAMACHY  (Bremen)  SCIAMACHY  (SRON)  GMD &  MOZAIC 

The datasets are less consistent and show higher biases in  Northern Hemisphere spring 

Percent Difference (Data – Model)  Highest AIRS vs. model  difference in NH spring  Higher AIRS vs. MOPITT  discrepancy in NH Spring  Most consistency of all  instruments without  spring data 

In general, the different instruments (especially AIRS & MOPITT) are consistent and  all show a low bias in GEOS‐Chem, especially in spring. 

ARCTAS (2008) provided a unique dataset for polar analysis 

ARCTAS 

Coordinated aircraft campaign (NASA + NOAA + DOE + Europeans + … )  Simultaneous intensive surface sampling  Focus on validation of polar‐orbiting satellites, including AIRS 

Intense, early fires in Russia led to high CO in April 2008 

GEOS‐Chem CO emissions  MODIS fire counts 

GEOS‐Chem showed low bias relative to in‐situ observations 

GEOS‐Chem and aircraft profiles  GEOS‐Chem and ground‐based FTIR  columns at Eureka 

GEOS‐Chem showed low bias relative to in‐situ observations 

GEOS‐Chem and aircraft profiles  GEOS‐Chem and ground‐based FTIR  columns at Eureka  GEOS‐Chem Source adjustments: 

Even with source adjustment, GEOS‐Chem is lower than AIRS  throughout Arctic and midlatitudes 

AIRS  GEOS‐Chem 

% Diff. 

Difference likely reflects known high bias in AIRS CO  Largest bias over Russian fire region  source adjustment too severe?  Lowest bias over North American Arctic (i.e. ARCTAS region) 

Observed pollution from North America (April 5, 2008) 

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART  Davis Strait enhancement seen in  AIRS, aircraft, and GEOS‐Chem  Good spatial agreement between  AIRS and model throughout Arctic 

Observed pollution from Europe & Asia (April 9, 2008) 

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART  GEOS‐Chem shows roughly equal  contributions from Europe and Asia  No enhancement in AIRS, likely due  to low altitude (>1000 hPa) of 

Observed pollution from Russian fires (April 16, 2008) 

Back trajectories from FSU WRF/FLEXPART  High consistency between AIRS,  aircraft, and GEOS‐Chem over Norton  Sound and throughout Arctic  Observed enhancement was offshoot 

GEOS‐Chem shows the influence of different source regions on  Arctic CO concentrations 

Asian FF important at all  altitudes  European FF important  near surface  No major impact from  North American FF or  Russian/Asian BB 

AIRS 6‐year record provides context for 2008 results 

Mean AIRS CO, April 2008  April 2008 AIRS CO anomaly 

High CO  from fires  Increased export  from Europe  Lower‐than‐average  CO over Alaska 

Climate impacted transport and CO accumulation in 2008 

AIRS CO in Bering/Chukchi Seas and DJF Ocean Niño Index  R=0.86  La Niña 

2008 sea level pressure anomaly  2008 La Niña conditions led to weakened Aleutian low  Weakened low decreased transport to Alaska  Result was lower CO over N. American Arctic, despite increased source in Russia 

Summary 

ARCTAS in‐situ data and is dominated by Asian fossil fuels. 

Arctic CO concentrations was minimal relative to European and Asian pollution 

induced weakening of the Aleutian Low pressure system. 