Concept for Naval Mine Counter Measures Major Van Hoeserlande - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Proposal for a Future NATO Concept for Naval Mine Counter Measures Major Van Hoeserlande Patrick, Ir HQ SACT Concept Developer Patrick.VanHoeserlande@act.nato.int ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 1 Bridging the two

Analyzing Trends Under Pressure ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 2 Bridging the two

ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 3 Bridging the two

Analyzing Trends Under Pressure A B C D ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 4 Bridging the two

Transformational Concept Transformational approach ‘natural’ ‘natural’ evolution evolution Ship-borne activities Ship-centered activities time ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

CD&E Method ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 6 Bridging the two

Till now • Research • Meeting and discussions with SMEs • Info collected during seminars, visits, meetings… • Circulation of drafts – Leading to a new NATO NMW Vision Paper • NMW DTAG ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 7 Bridging the two

Disruptive Technology Assessment Game ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 8 Bridging the two

Three Trends Increased Autonomy More Data Extended Range ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 9 Bridging the two

Increased Autonomy • Communication difficult underwater and across the air-water boundary => Need for unmanned systems to perform tasks with limited or no intervention • Maturing Artificial Intelligence (AI) => Learn from experience, adjust to new inputs and perform human-like tasks • AI technology can also provide advanced capabilities: – Reasoning on complex problems – Modelling of behaviours – Automatic Target Recognition ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 10 Bridging the two

More Data • Importance of data for MCM operations – Sensor performance assessment – Selection of optimum MCM systems and course of action • Self-learning algorithms need data => Competitive advantage • Quest for oceanographic data => More sensors in the water • Civilian data useful (supplemented) ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 11 Bridging the two

Extended Range • Improvement of time-distance range – Increased autonomy – Miniaturisation – High-efficiency batteries – Alternative sources of energy – High-performance propulsion – … ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 12 Bridging the two

Combining the Trends into More Data Increased Autonomy Extended Range Over-The-Horizon Maritime Autonomous Systems ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 13 Bridging the two

The ? Transformational approach ‘natural’ ‘natural’ evolution evolution Ship-borne activities Ship-centered activities time ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

! Transformational approach ‘natural’ ‘natural’ evolution evolution Ship-borne activities Ship-centered activities Over-the-horizon activities time ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Combining the Trends into • A future concept that – employs MAVs – absent of specialised MCMV – to provide a persistence, timely and to human lives less risky MCM approach • A multitude of systems – interacting with each other and – collaborating with human operators – collects, disseminates, processes, exploits and acts upon data • Under a ‘centralized’ command and control ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 16 Bridging the two

Combining the Trends into • Creating a defence-in-depth with four layers: – Layer 1: Persistent Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance on sensitive maritime areas by civilian and military assets – Layer 2: Passive and preparatory-active MCM activities – Layer 3: Full defensive MCM – Layer 4: Close-by protection ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 17 Bridging the two

DOTMLPFI-D (just a few) • Doctrine – New doctrine and tactics – Waterspace management • Organization – C2 arrangement – National desiderata vs efficiency • (Education &) Training – Human-machine interaction – Over-trust and under-reliance • Material – MCCM – Mix of delivery methods ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 18 Bridging the two

DOTMLPFI-D (just a few) • Leadership – Accept the assessment of mine risk based on invisible MCM activities • Personnel – Possible loss of deep MCM expertise – Career paths for naval and other personnel working with MCM MAVs • Facilities – Data transmission facilities – Computer power • Interoperability – UW Comms – LARS • Data – Data exchange protocols – Use of civilian data ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 19 Bridging the two

Challenges • Real OTH MAVs (full spectrum) • Interoperability standards (C2, data, LARS …) • Autonomous Target Recognition • Underwater communications • Experience with unmanned fleets • Defense planning • Acquisition cycle ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 20 Bridging the two

Conclusions • The development work is still ongoing and even after its approval, there will be a long way to implement (parts of) the concept in NATO • The implementation of this concept will – have a profound impact on the execution of MCM – provide the MCM commander with • early options “to survey and evade” a known or suspected mine threat areas • the tools to manage more efficiently and dynamically the resources • whilst reducing idle fleet time for time-consuming “neutralization” of mine -like contacts in established routes or areas ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 21 Bridging the two

Questions & Answers Disclaimer • Opinions, statements and projections stated in this briefing are solely those of the individual author. They do not reflect the opinions or policy of NATO, HQ SACT or any of its affiliates nor is the content endorsed by those entities. • The concept explained in this brief is endorsed neither by HQ SACT, nor by nations. • The content of this brief is not classified. ‘A new idea is first condemned as ridiculous and then dismissed as trivial, until finally, it becomes what everybody knows.’ William James, 1879 ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 22 Bridging the two

Test Under Pressure A B C D ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 23 Bridging the two

Solution • Angle turns counter-clockwise • Other figure is in opposite corner D • Other figure grows with one line per step AI system performs better than 75 percent of American adults on standard visual intelligence test (2017) ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, 24 Bridging the two