Concept for Naval Mine Counter Measures Major Van Hoeserlande - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Supreme Allied Commander Transformation

Proposal for a Future NATO Concept for Naval Mine Counter Measures

Major Van Hoeserlande Patrick, Ir HQ SACT Concept Developer Patrick.VanHoeserlande@act.nato.int

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Analyzing Trends Under Pressure

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ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

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ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Analyzing Trends Under Pressure

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A B C D

ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

time Transformational approach Ship-borne activities Ship-centered activities

Transformational Concept

‘natural’ evolution ‘natural’ evolution

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CD&E Method

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Till now

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• Research
• Meeting and discussions with SMEs
• Info collected during seminars, visits,

meetings…

• Circulation of drafts

– Leading to a new NATO NMW Vision Paper

• NMW DTAG

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Disruptive Technology Assessment Game

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Three Trends

Increased Autonomy More Data Extended Range

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Increased Autonomy

• Communication difficult underwater and across the

air-water boundary => Need for unmanned systems to perform tasks with limited or no intervention

• Maturing Artificial Intelligence (AI)

=> Learn from experience, adjust to new inputs and perform human-like tasks

• AI technology can also provide advanced

capabilities:

– Reasoning on complex problems – Modelling of behaviours – Automatic Target Recognition

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More Data

• Importance of data for MCM operations

– Sensor performance assessment – Selection of optimum MCM systems and course of action

• Self-learning algorithms need data

=> Competitive advantage

• Quest for oceanographic data

=> More sensors in the water

• Civilian data useful (supplemented)

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Extended Range

• Improvement of time-distance range

– Increased autonomy – Miniaturisation – High-efficiency batteries – Alternative sources of energy – High-performance propulsion – …

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Combining the Trends into

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Over-The-Horizon Maritime Autonomous Systems

Extended Range Increased Autonomy More Data

ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

time Transformational approach Ship-borne activities Ship-centered activities

The ?

‘natural’ evolution ‘natural’ evolution

ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

time Ship-borne activities Ship-centered activities Over-the-horizon activities

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Transformational approach ‘natural’ evolution ‘natural’ evolution

ACT - Improving today, Shaping tomorrow, Bridging the two

Combining the Trends into

• A future concept that

– employs MAVs – absent of specialised MCMV – to provide a persistence, timely and to human lives less risky MCM approach

• A multitude of systems

– interacting with each other and – collaborating with human operators – collects, disseminates, processes, exploits and acts upon data

• Under a ‘centralized’ command and control

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Combining the Trends into

• Creating a defence-in-depth with four layers:

– Layer 1: Persistent Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance on sensitive maritime areas by civilian and military assets – Layer 2: Passive and preparatory-active MCM activities – Layer 3: Full defensive MCM – Layer 4: Close-by protection

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DOTMLPFI-D (just a few)

• Doctrine

– New doctrine and tactics – Waterspace management

• Organization

– C2 arrangement – National desiderata vs efficiency

• (Education &) Training

– Human-machine interaction – Over-trust and under-reliance

• Material

– MCCM – Mix of delivery methods

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DOTMLPFI-D (just a few)

• Leadership

– Accept the assessment of mine risk based on invisible MCM activities

• Personnel

– Possible loss of deep MCM expertise – Career paths for naval and other personnel working with MCM MAVs

• Facilities

– Data transmission facilities – Computer power

• Interoperability

– UW Comms – LARS

• Data

– Data exchange protocols – Use of civilian data

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Challenges

• Real OTH MAVs (full spectrum)
• Interoperability standards (C2, data, LARS …)
• Autonomous Target Recognition
• Underwater communications
• Experience with unmanned fleets
• Defense planning
• Acquisition cycle

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Conclusions

• The development work is still ongoing and even

after its approval, there will be a long way to implement (parts of) the concept in NATO

• The implementation of this concept will

– have a profound impact on the execution of MCM – provide the MCM commander with

• early options “to survey and evade” a known or

suspected mine threat areas

• the tools to manage more efficiently and dynamically

the resources

• whilst reducing idle fleet time for time-consuming

“neutralization” of mine-like contacts in established routes or areas

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Questions & Answers

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‘A new idea is first condemned as ridiculous and then dismissed as trivial, until finally, it becomes what everybody knows.’ William James, 1879

Disclaimer

• Opinions, statements and projections stated in this briefing are solely

those of the individual author. They do not reflect the opinions or policy of NATO, HQ SACT or any of its affiliates nor is the content endorsed by those entities.

• The concept explained in this brief is endorsed neither by HQ SACT, nor

by nations.

• The content of this brief is not classified.

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Test Under Pressure

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A B C D

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Solution

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D

• Angle turns counter-clockwise
• Other figure is in opposite corner
• Other figure grows with one line per step

AI system performs better than 75 percent of American adults on standard visual intelligence test (2017)