Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of - - PDF document

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Jakkie Cilliers Institute for Security Studies

jcilliers@issafrica.org @jakkiecilliers @ISSAfrica

AFRICAN FUTURES

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APPROACH

Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub-regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an optimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case)

• forecast. Conclude with violence, democracy, the

implications for Africa globally. Will be using the International Futures forecasting system (IFs) for the modelling, data from ACLED, Freedom House and Polity IV

@jakkiecilliers

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FRAMING SCENARIOS

Politics of the Belly Dimension Africa Rising On consumption, for urban elites and their interests Government expenditure On education, health and infrastructure, to alleviate poverty, reduce inequality Informal sector balloons, services expand, subsistence agriculture, inequality increases Economy Growth in manufacturing, formal sector expands, larger tax base, green revolution, inclusive growth Urban enclaves, centralized management Spatial approach Rural development and urban planning, metro governments and greater authority to sub-nationa Authoritarian regression, incumbents manipulate system, personalization of power, ethnic & populist mobilization Politics 4th Wave of Democracy, term limits, regular free/fair/comp elections, institutions matter Terrorism, election violence, resource competition Violence Steady reduction, effective peacekeeping and conflict mediation Beggar they neighbour policies Regional policies Meaningul sub-regional integration that expands Global tension, sphere of influence competion International Growth in all trading partners Protectionist, lever open African access Trade policies Allows Africa ability to protect and grow its infant industries and business

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AFRICA GDP GROWTH RATES

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Af Rising Current Path Pol Belly World 5.9 4.2 3.1 2.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 A Rising Base Belly World

Average Growth Rates

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AFRICAN EXPORTS TO COUNTRIES/BLOCS

50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $US millions EU China US Latin America South Africa

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AFRICAN IMPORTS FROM COUNTRIES/BLOCS

50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $US millions EU China US Latin America South Africa

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TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS, EU- AFRICA/CHINA-AFRICA

EU exports EU imports China exports China imports Algeria South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Algeria Angola Nigeria Nigeria Egypt Sudan (North and South) Egypt Morocco Morocco Democratic Republic

• f the Congo

Algeria Tunisia Nigeria Congo Brazaville Kenya

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GDP PER CAPITA

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INFORMAL AS PART OF FORMAL

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WORLD VS AFRICAN ECONOMY

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2 542 13 126 8 440 6 183 82 024 166 691 171 377 173 634 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2016 Rising 2045 C Path 2045 P Belly 2045 2011 Bn US$ Africa World

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FORMAL VS INFORMAL SECTOR: 2045

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2 741 2 081 1 449 15 688 8 431 5 705 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 Africa Rising Current Path Politics of Belly US$ bilioon Informal Formal

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RELATIVE POPULATION

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POPULATION

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EXTREME POVERTY

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EDUCATION

• By 2045 the average years of education for Africa’s 2.2 bn people would

have increased from 5.2 years in 2016 to 7.2 years (Africa Rising)

• In 2016 78% of children of school going age attend primary school. By

2046 this could achieve 100% (Africa Rising) or be as low as 92% (Poltics

• f the Belly)
• By 2045 69% (Africa Rising) of children who enter upper secondary school

could complete schooling whereas only 28% complete in 2016

• In 2016 only7% of Africans of the relevant age group complete tertiary
• education. By 2045 this could be as high as 22% (Africa Rising) or 11 %

(Politics of the Belly)

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INFANT MORTALITY

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CLIMATE CHANGE

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APPROACH

Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub- regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an

• ptimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the

Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case) forecast. Conclude with violence, democracy, the implications for Africa globally.

@jakkiecilliers

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FREEDOM HOUSE: AFRICA

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AFRICA’S LONGEST SERVING LEADERS

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APPROACH

Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub- regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an

• ptimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the

Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case) forecast. Conclude with violence, democracy, the implications for Africa globally.

@jakkiecilliers

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EVENTS VS FATALITIES

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TOTAL FATALITIES VS RISK OF DEATH: 2015

Fatalities Risk of death

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APPROACH

Complement the previous presentation by setting out the scope of potential futures for Africa and the sub- regions in the UKMoD report to 2045, using an

• ptimistic Africa Rising and pessimistic Politics of the

Belly alternative. These are framed around a Current Path (Base Case) forecast. Conclude with comments on violence, democracy, the implications for Africa globally.

@jakkiecilliers

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THE AFRICAN EXPERIENCE WITH DEMOCRACY

An intrinsic ‘good’ but democracy has been undermined by:

• Association with neo-liberal economic policies
• Western support to dictators and authoritarian states
• Weakness of the African state - process of delayed state formation -

African states simultaneously have to provide security, develop capacity and become more inclusive Neopatrimonialism has adapted to democracy – African elites go through motions of elections but frustrate the essence Rise of China vs relative decline in influence of Africa’s traditional development partners – African elites (again) have alternatives But hugely popular (Afrobarometer)

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LEADERSHIP IN AFRICA

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AFRICA VS EU28-UK

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THE DIVERGENCE INCREASES

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STAY INFORMED

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