Coal Consumption in China and its Impact on Environment (Session 2: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Coal Consumption in China and its Impact on Environment

(Session 2: Science and Technology for International Development)

International Conference on Science and Technology for Sustainability 2007

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Topics

• China overtook US as the biggest CO2 emitter (?)
• Rapid energy demand growth and high dependence on coal
• Basic situation of China’s environmental (air pollution)

problems

• Energy savings and SO2 mitigation target in the 11th Five Year

Plan

• Technology improvement solves environmental problem:

Case study on deployment of FGD

• Conclusion: Implications for Japan-China cooperation

Nobuhiro Horii, Kyushu University, JAPAN Contact: horii@en.kyushu-u.ac.jp

China overtook US as the biggest CO2 emitter (?)

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【Regional CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, 1990-2004】

(Source） IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004, IEA

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 (1000 megaton)

International transport Other non-Annex I Other Big DC China Other Annex I-EIT Russian Federation Other Annex II Japan EU-15 USA

In 2006, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use increased by about 2.6%. This increase was mainly due to a 4.5% in global coal consumption, of which China contributed more than two-third. China’s 2006 CO2 emissions surpassed those of US by 8%. (estimated by Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China denied).

Rapid energy demand growth and high dependence on coal

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(Source） China Statistical Yearbook, each year

【China’s energy consumption by each energy】 Coal supports basement of China’s energy consumption, especially in demand’s fast growing period.

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 1 9 5 2 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 8 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 7 1 9 7 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 7 2 2 3 ten thousands ton SCE 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 %

Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Ratio of Coal

Rapid energy demand growth and high dependence on coal

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【Oil consumption of major countries, 1990-2006 】

(Source）BP, BP Statistical Review 2007

China ranks the second in major oil consuming countries, surpassing Japan in 2003. In recent years, consumption is rocketing because of “My car boom”.

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (million tons) USA China Japan Russian Federation Germany India South Korea Canada France Saudi Arabia Other countries

Rapid energy demand growth and high dependence on coal

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【China’s oil export, import, and dependence on imported crude oil】

(Source）China Statistical Yearbook, each year

Due to resource limitation, domestic oil production slows down rapidly, especially in major in-land oil production base. Therefore, the gap between production and consumption increase dramatically, which results in oil import expansion.

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 ten thousands ton 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 %

• il export（left axis）
• il import（left axis）

dependancy on imported crude oil（right axis）

Rapid energy demand growth and high dependence on coal

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【Price difference among various energy sources】

(Note) Data are for Changsha, Hunan province, in 2003. (Source) prepared by author, based on various sources

Efficiency Price in same caloric value (yuan/GJ) Ratio of price difference Raw coal 262 (yuan/ton) 22.13 (MJ/kg) 60% 13.27 (MJ/kg) 19.74 1 Washed coal 340 (yuan/ton) 23.00 (MJ/kg) 60% 13.8 (MJ/kg) 24.64 1.25 CWM 430 (yuan/ton) 18.82 (MJ/kg) 95% 17.89 (MJ/kg) 24.03 1.22 Heavy oil 2300 (yuan/ton) 40.17 (MJ/kg) 98% 39.37 (MJ/kg) 58.42 2.96 Natural gas 1.8 (yuan/m

3)

35.98 (MJ/m

3)

98% 35.26 (MJ/m

3)

49.93 2.53 Price Caloric value Caloric value used in conbustion

Coal also has been playing role in supporting China’s economic growth by supplying stable and cheap energy. Through market competition, coal is chosen because of its low price.

Basic situation of China’s environmental (air pollution) problems

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【SO2 emissions of major countries, 1990-2002】

(Source) China SEPA, China Environmental Statistics Report 2004, China Environmental Science Publishing Company.

China is also the biggest emitter of SO2, surpassing US in 1995. The emissions

• f other countries are vanishingly small, compared with those two countries.

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 （万トン） オーストラリア ブルガリア チェコ フランス ドイツ ギリシャ イタリア 日本 ルーマニア スペイン イギリス アメリカ 中国

Australia Bulgaria Czech France Germany Greece Italia Japan Rumania Spain England US China 10 thousands tons)

Basic situation of China’s environmental (air pollution) problems

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【China’s SO2 emissions of each sector, 2000-2005】

(Source) China SEPA, China Environmental Statistics Report 2006, China Environmental Science Publishing Company.

Power sector is the biggest emitter of SO2, accounting for more than half of total emissions.

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2000年 2001年 2002年 2003年 2004年 2005年 （万トン） その他 非鉄金属 化学 鉄鋼 非金属 電力

Other Nonferrous metal Chemical Steel making Nonmetal Power

(10 thousands tons)

Basic situation of China’s environmental (air pollution) problems

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【Number and installed capacity of coal-fired power units by each scale】

(Note) Data are for Changsha, Hunan province, in 2003. (Source) prepared by author, based on various sources

In China’s power industry, there still exists considerable number of small scaled

• units. The average scale of a unit of China’s coal-fired plants was only 60.9MW in

2006, much smaller than that of Japan’s 487.6MW.

number of units installed capacity (MW) % number of units installed capacity (MW) % number of units installed capacity (MW) % above 300MW 32 10,340 14.2 206 69,240 37.1 339 119,940 45.1 100MW-less than 300MW 257 36,090 49.4 476 70,560 37.8 605 90,170 33.9 50MW-less than 100MW 211 10,780 14.8 354 18,120 9.7 397 20,710 7.8 less than 50MW 1,172 15,820 21.7 2,377 28,600 15.3 2,924 34,900 13.1 total － 73,020 100.0 － 186,510 100.0 － 265,730 100.0 1988 1998 2003

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Basic situation of China’s environmental (air pollution) problems

【Industrial and residential boilers】

before 1980's the end of 1998 number of units about 200 thousands →→→→ about 500 thousands installed capacity 370 thousands t/h →→→→ 1210 thousands t/h average capacity 1.85 t/h →→→→ 2.42 t/h

Coal consumption by industrial and residential boilers, supplying steam and heat, accounts around 30% in whole consumption. Most of those boilers are also small scaled, only 700 tons coal consumed by each unit on average. Now Chinese government is promoting the deployment of regional central heating system to substitute dispersed small scaled boilers.

(Source) prepared by author, based on various sources

Energy savings and SO2 mitigation target in the 11th Five Year Plan

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(Source）UN statistics

【Energy Consumption for 1$ GDP of Major Energy Consuming Countries 】 The target for energy savings in the 11th FY plan, 20% reduction of energy consumption for unit GDP, is very challenging but guarantees the slow down of energy consumption increase in the next 5-10 years. 【China’s Energy Consumption for Production of Major Products】

5 10 15 20 25 Japan UK German France USA Canada South Korea India China Russia

unit China advanced technology gap (%) ethylene kgce/t 1,210 870 39.1 coal-fired power gce/kWh 408 324 25.8 crude steel kgce/t 976 656 48.8 copper kgce/t 1,352 820 64.9 cement kgce/t 181 125 45.5 ammonia kgce/t 1,399 970 44.2 paper making tcet/t 1.57 0.70 124.3

(Source）China Energy 50 Years, China Power Publisher, 2002

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Energy savings and SO2 mitigation target in the 11th Five Year Plan 【SO2 mitigation target in the 10th Five Year Plan】

• --10% reduction of SO2 in 2005, compared with

emissions in 2000

• SO2 target：18 million tons
• particulate：20 million tons

However, in reality, in 2005,

• SO2 emission： 25.49 million tons
• particulate emission: 20.94 million tons

【SO2 mitigation target in the 11th Five Year Plan】

• --Again, 10% reduction of SO2 in 2010, compared with

emissions in 2005

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Technology improvement solves environmental problem: Case study on deployment of FGD 【Outstanding expansion of deployment of FGD】 at the end of 2000 6.95 million kW（2.9％） at the end of 2004 16.07 million kW（4.9％） at the end of 2006 45 million kW（including under construction units) ↓ 178 million kW capacities are planned to be installed before 2010 in the 11th Five Year Plan. This policy is thought to reduce around 30% of SO2 emissions.

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Technology improvement solves environmental problem: Case study on deployment of FGD 【Dramatic growth of FGD makers and sharp price down】 The number of FGD makers at the middle of 2003 7-8 companies ↓ at the beginning of 2005 46 companies →at the end of 2006 more than 100 companies Unit investment cost of FGD per kW at the year 2000 800-1300yuan/kW ↓ at the year 2005 150-250yuan/kW ↓ at the year 2006 less than 200yuan/kW

Conclusion: Implications for Japan-China cooperation

China cannot help but continue dependence on coal for her major energy source in future. Therefore, sustainable coal utilization system should be built up, in which energy saving and environmental technologies (CCT: Clean Coal Technology) are key component. The critical factor in rapid deployment of FGD in recent years was sharp reduction of installment cost, resulting from domestic production and localization. Japanese makers are not enough competitive in Chinese FGD market, although their technology is one of the most advanced in the world. The reason is that Japanese makers stick to their own technology and products, which miss the market needs, that is, in other words, 80% performance but low cost. On the other hand, Europe and US makers transferred their technology to Chinese companies by only patent royalty, which enabled Chinese companies to develop their own products, suitable to Chinese market needs.

Conclusion: Implications for Japan-China cooperation

China’s energy utilization system is very different from Japan’s. Consequently, it is very important for Japan’s technology to be modified to fit China’s needs. Technology modification might be important rather than innovation in introducing to developing countries---Implication (1) Japanese advanced environmental technology might not be necessarily competitive in developing countries.--- Implication (2) In not only FGD technology but also other environmental technologies for global warming, such as energy saving technology, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, Chinese companies might be able to make breakthrough in reducing installment cost.---Implication (3) The world has benefited from Chinese manufacturing industry in supply

• f low price and high quality products. We also should make use of “made

in China” to overcome the barriers in dissemination of environmental technologies into market .---Implication (4)