CLIMATOLOGY Advancing Adaptation Workshop Dr. Kenneth A. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CLIMATOLOGY Advancing Adaptation Workshop Dr. Kenneth A. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 20, 2023 351 likes •490 views

A SNAPSHOT OF MINNESOTAS CHANGING CLIMATOLOGY Advancing Adaptation Workshop Dr. Kenneth A. Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office January 31, 2017 Three Leading Changes Ongoing and Expected to Continue 1. Minnesota getting warmer and wetter

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SLIDE 1

A SNAPSHOT OF MINNESOTA’S CHANGING CLIMATOLOGY

  • Dr. Kenneth A. Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office

Advancing Adaptation Workshop

January 31, 2017

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SLIDE 2

Three Leading Changes Ongoing and Expected to Continue

  • 1. Minnesota getting warmer and

wetter

  • 2. Warming driven by loss of cold, all

seasons

  • 3. Heavy rainfall more frequent and

intense

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SLIDE 3

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

Annual Precipitation (in.) Annual Temperature (F)

Minnesota Average Temperature and Precipitation

1895-1986

Warm/wet Warm/dry Cool/dry Cool/wet

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SLIDE 4

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

Annual Precipitation (in.) Annual Temperature (F)

Minnesota Average Temperature and Precipitation

1997-2016 1895-1986 2016

Warm/wet Warm/dry Cool/dry Cool/wet

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SLIDE 5

Warming greatest in north, at night (lows), and during winter

Annual Average Winter Lows Summer Highs

Total temperature change, 1895-2015

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SLIDE 6

Winter warming 10x faster than

summer

Season Temperature Metric

  • Avg. change

per decade since 1895

  • Avg. change

per decade since 1970

Winter (Dec - Feb)

Seasonal Avg. + 0.36°F + 1.00°F

Summer (Jun - Aug)

Seasonal Avg. + 0.14°F + 0.10°F

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SLIDE 7

Length and Magnitude of 10 F Temperature Season, Duluth MN

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Daily Average T Degrees Below 10F 1956-1975

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SLIDE 8

Length and Magnitude of 10 F Temperature Season, Duluth MN

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Daily Average T Degrees Below 10F 1956-1975 1976-1995

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SLIDE 9

Length and Magnitude of 10 F Temperature Season, Duluth MN

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Daily Average T Degrees Below 10F 1956-1975 1976-1995 1996-2015

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SLIDE 10

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Maximum Rainfall (inches) Frequency Difference

Changes in Heavy Precipitation Frequency and Intensity from 40 Long-Term Minnesota Stations, 1916-2015

1" rainfall frequency change vs 1916-60 avg

10-yr statewide (40-station) maximum

  • Ann. avg statewide (40-station) max (10-yr)
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SLIDE 11

Extreme rainfall: “Mega” rain events (6” +

  • ver 1000 sq mi) are increasing

–June 28-29, 1975, Northwest MN –June 30-July 2, 1978, Southeast MN –July 23-24, 1987, Twin Cities Superstorm –June 9-10, 2002, Northern MN –September 14-15, 2004 Southern MN –August 18-20, 2007, Southern MN –September 22-23, 2010 Southern MN –June 19-20, 2012, Northeast MN –July 11-12, 2016, East-central MN –August 10-11, 2016, Central and Southeast MN

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SLIDE 12

Thank You!