Climate trends - Jersey Paul Aked Senior Meteorologist – Observations and Climatology February 2019
Climate trends Recording temperature and rainfall in Jersey Maison St. Louis Observatory - Jersey Recording the weather since 1894 Jersey’s official climatological recording site
Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - 1901 to 1930 20 1901 to 1930 18 16 14 Celsius 12 10 8 6 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis Observatory - Jersey 1901 to 1930, 30 year monthly average air temperature compared with 1991 to 2018, 28 year monthly average 20 1901 to 1930 18 1991 to 2018 16 14 Celsius 12 10 8 6 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 Annual mean temperature 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 Celsius 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 1 1894
Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 30 year period average 14.0 14 13.5 13.5 13.0 13 12.5 12.5 Celsius 12.0 12 11.5 11.5 11.0 11 10.5 10.5 10.0 10 1 1901 to 1930 1911 to 1940 1921 to 1950 1931 to 1960 1941 to 1970 1951 to 1980 1961 to 1990 1971 to 2000 1981 to2010 1991 to 2018 1894 1901 to 1930
Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - Extremes Daily maximum and minimum records since 1894 Looking more closely at daily extremes and when they occurred Of the 366 daily records 125 daily maximum extreme temperature records since 1 st Jan 2000 34% of the extreme records occurred in the last 19 years of the 124 year period 22 daily minimum extreme temperature records since 1 st Jan 2000 6% of the extreme records occurred in the last 19 years of the 124 year period
Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1901 to 1930 1901 to 1930 120 100 Millimetres 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1901 to 1930 1991 to 2018 120 1901 to 1930 1991 to 2018 100 Millimetres 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 Annual total rainfall 1200 1100 1000 Millimetres 900 800 700 600 500 400 1 1894
Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 Annual total rainfall 30 year period average 1200 1200 1100 1100 1000 1000 Millimetres 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 1 1901 to 1911 to 1921 to 1931 to 1941 to 1951 to 1961 to 1971 to 1981 199 1894 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 to2010 20 1901 to 1930
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Jersey Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan February 2019
29km primarily concrete and masonry sea walls Network
2002 Sea Defence Strategy • Major condition Assessment in 2002 • States of Jersey Sea Defence Strategy • Capital works programme • Funding
2008
The journey… • 2015 Future Proofing – TCPA report • 2015 Council of Ministers approve workstream • 2017 NOC sea level rise and coastal condition report • 2018 Tender process to commission Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan • 2019 Island Plan Review
Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan • Coastal modelling • Adaptive management schemes • Flood risk maps • Engagement and consultation • Short, medium and long term planning • Policy development
Jersey Shoreline Coastal Resilience Management Plan (SCRMP) Key Stakeholders St Helier Town Hall, St Helier 12 February 2019 Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Overview – Background – why a SCRMP – Previous Work – Why Are Islands Special – Assessing Risk – Delivering SOJ objectives – Review coastal policy – Programme Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Background - Why a SCRMP? – Changing climate – Response to SLR needed – Plan for today and plan for the future – 25 years of background – Asset management early days – Policy driven today – Draft SCRMP by NOC in 2017 Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Why are Islands Special? Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Assessing Flood Risk – Coastal Flooding – Flooding from Overtopping – Inland Flooding – Different Risk Map Outputs Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
SCRMP must deliver on Common Strategic Priorities Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Objective driven policy – protect, support and enhance 1. protect public health and safety; reduce income inequality and social exclusion; 2. support development which promotes economic, social and environmental sustainability; 3. protect and enable a sustainable, vibrant and diverse economy; 4. protect St. Helier, as principal urban centre, enhancing it as a place to live, work and visit; 5. protect and enhance island’s townscape, landscape, coastline and seascape; 6. protect and enhance biodiversity, and island’s terrestrial and marine habitats and ecosystems; 7. protect and enhance the island’s heritage assets; 8. support and enable coastal access, and enabling travel to, from, in and around Jersey; 9. protect water and other natural resources, including surface and groundwater quality. Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Policy Options for Appraisal A303 Stonehenge Bypass (2018) Policy Description • Natural changes to the coastline are allowed to continue No active intervention (NAI) • Maintain the existing line of sea or coastal defence Maintain the defence line (MTDL) • The standard of protection may decrease or increase in response to changing coastal hazards • Modify existing sea or coastal defences to maintain or increase their resistance level or implement an alternative scheme Adaptive management (AM) • Accommodate evolving Island Plan requirements • Consider re-alignment of the primary defence line and development of a defence zone approach • Strategyto move a coastal defence seawardof it’s current position (i.e. land reclamation) Advance the Line (ATL) Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Policy - No Active Intervention (Beauport) Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Policy – Maintain the Defence Line (St Ouen’s Bay) Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Policy – Adaptive Management Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Policy – Adaptive Management Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Policy – Advance the Line (La Fregate and Monaco) Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Coastal Management Units and Coastal Management Policy Locations and Appraisal – CMAs and CMUs Areas 4. North Coast – Coastal Management Areas and Units – Scoring of policy and options for units of coast 5. St 3. St Catherine’s Ouen’s Bay 2. Grouville Bay 6. St Brelade 1. South Coast Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Policy Scoring for Coastal Management Units 1. Defence 2. Community 3. Environment 4. Economy Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Valuing the benefits of the SCRMP – Property, infrastructure, health, roads, tourism, heritage, emergency costs, Port, ferries, energy etc. – Economic viability TOTAL ADDED VALUE INDUCED VALUE – Wider environment benefits GROSS VALUE ADDED - 100 year appraisal IMPACT DIRECT - Quantitative and DAMAGE AVOIDED qualitative assessment Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
Programme Milestones Modelling – Feb 2019 Appraisal and Impact Assessment – May 2019 Public Consultation - Summer 2019 Final Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan and Action Plans – Oct 2019 Outline Scheme Development Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
How you can contribute to where we are going www.gov.je – Climate change – Be Involved! – Feedback/Comments – Share local knowledge Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management
GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME Growth, Housing and Environment Coastal and Highway Maintenance ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE
Gunsite area - living, working and enjoying the area • Residential and commercial properties • Number of shops, pubs and café • Popular beach for sports, swimming and dog walking • Public car park • Promenade and cycle path ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME
Flood events in 2008 and 2014 ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME
Flood damage ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME
Flood events in 2008 and 2014 ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME
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