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Climate trends - Jersey Paul Aked Senior Meteorologist - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate trends - Jersey Paul Aked Senior Meteorologist Observations and Climatology February 2019 Climate trends Recording temperature and rainfall in Jersey Maison St. Louis Observatory - Jersey Recording the weather since 1894

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Climate trends - Jersey

Paul Aked

Senior Meteorologist – Observations and Climatology

February 2019

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Climate trends Recording temperature and rainfall in Jersey

Maison St. Louis Observatory - Jersey Recording the weather since 1894 Jersey’s official climatological recording site

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Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - 1901 to 1930

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1901 to 1930

Celsius

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4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1901 to 1930 1991 to 2018

Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis Observatory - Jersey

1901 to 1930, 30 year monthly average air temperature compared with 1991 to 2018, 28 year monthly average

Celsius

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10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0

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Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 Annual mean temperature

Celsius 1894

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10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14

1901 to 1930 1911 to 1940 1921 to 1950 1931 to 1960 1941 to 1970 1951 to 1980 1961 to 1990 1971 to 2000 1981 to2010 1991 to 2018

10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0

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Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 30 year period average

Celsius 1894 1901 to 1930

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Climate trends Temperature - Maison St. Louis - Extremes Daily maximum and minimum records since 1894

Looking more closely at daily extremes and when they occurred Of the 366 daily records

125 daily maximum extreme temperature records since 1st Jan 2000

34% of the extreme records occurred in the last 19 years of the 124 year period

22 daily minimum extreme temperature records since 1st Jan 2000 6% of the extreme records occurred in the last 19 years of the 124 year period

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20 40 60 80 100 120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1901 to 1930

Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1901 to 1930

Millimetres

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20 40 60 80 100 120

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1901 to 1930 1991 to 2018

Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1901 to 1930 1991 to 2018

Millimetres

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400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

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Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 Annual total rainfall

Millimetres 1894

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400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

1901 to 1930 1911 to 1940 1921 to 1950 1931 to 1960 1941 to 1970 1951 to 1980 1961 to 1990 1971 to 2000 1981 to2010 199 20

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

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Climate trends Rainfall - Maison St. Louis - 1894 to 2018 Annual total rainfall

Millimetres 1894 1901 to 1930 30 year period average

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Climate trends

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Climate trends

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Climate trends

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Climate trends

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Jersey Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan

February 2019

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Network

29km primarily concrete and masonry sea walls

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2002 Sea Defence Strategy

  • Major condition Assessment in 2002
  • States of Jersey Sea Defence Strategy
  • Capital works programme
  • Funding
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2008

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The journey…

  • 2015 Future Proofing – TCPA report
  • 2015 Council of Ministers approve

workstream

  • 2017 NOC sea level rise and coastal

condition report

  • 2018 Tender process to commission

Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan

  • 2019 Island Plan Review
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  • Coastal modelling
  • Adaptive management schemes
  • Flood risk maps
  • Engagement and consultation
  • Short, medium and long term planning
  • Policy development

Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan

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Jersey Shoreline Coastal Resilience Management Plan (SCRMP) Key Stakeholders

St Helier Town Hall, St Helier 12 February 2019

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Overview

– Background – why a SCRMP – Previous Work – Why Are Islands Special – Assessing Risk

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

– Delivering SOJ objectives – Review coastal policy – Programme

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Background - Why a SCRMP?

– Changing climate – Response to SLR needed – Plan for today and plan for the future – 25 years of background – Asset management early days – Policy driven today – Draft SCRMP by NOC in 2017

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Why are Islands Special?

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Assessing Flood Risk

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

– Coastal Flooding – Flooding from Overtopping – Inland Flooding – Different Risk Map Outputs

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SCRMP must deliver on Common Strategic Priorities

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Objective driven policy – protect, support and enhance

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

1. protect public health and safety; reduce income inequality and social exclusion; 2. support development which promotes economic, social and environmental sustainability; 3. protect and enable a sustainable, vibrant and diverse economy; 4. protect St. Helier, as principal urban centre, enhancing it as a place to live, work and visit; 5. protect and enhance island’s townscape, landscape, coastline and seascape; 6. protect and enhance biodiversity, and island’s terrestrial and marine habitats and ecosystems; 7. protect and enhance the island’s heritage assets; 8. support and enable coastal access, and enabling travel to, from, in and around Jersey; 9. protect water and other natural resources, including surface and groundwater quality.

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Policy Options for Appraisal

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

A303 Stonehenge Bypass (2018)

Policy Description No active intervention (NAI)

  • Natural changes to the coastline are allowed to continue

Maintain the defence line (MTDL)

  • Maintain the existing line of sea or coastal defence
  • The standard of protection may decrease or increase in response to changing coastal hazards

Adaptive management (AM)

  • Modify existing sea or coastal defences to maintain or increase their resistance level or implement an alternative scheme
  • Accommodate evolving Island Plan requirements
  • Consider re-alignment of the primary defence line and development of a defence zone approach

Advance the Line (ATL)

  • Strategyto move a coastal defence seawardof it’s current position (i.e. land reclamation)
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Policy - No Active Intervention (Beauport)

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Policy – Maintain the Defence Line (St Ouen’s Bay)

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Policy – Adaptive Management

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Policy – Adaptive Management

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Policy – Advance the Line (La Fregate and Monaco)

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

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Policy Locations and Appraisal – CMAs and CMUs

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

– Coastal Management Areas and Units – Scoring of policy and options for units of coast

  • 1. South Coast
  • 2. Grouville Bay
  • 3. St Catherine’s
  • 4. North Coast
  • 5. St

Ouen’s Bay

  • 6. St Brelade

Coastal Management Units and Coastal Management Areas

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Policy Scoring for Coastal Management Units

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

1. Defence 2. Community 3. Environment 4. Economy

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DIRECT DAMAGE AVOIDED

Valuing the benefits of the SCRMP

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

TOTAL ADDED VALUE INDUCED VALUE GROSS VALUE ADDED IMPACT

– Property, infrastructure, health, roads, tourism, heritage, emergency costs, Port, ferries, energy etc. – Economic viability – Wider environment benefits

  • 100 year appraisal
  • Quantitative and

qualitative assessment

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Programme Milestones

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

Modelling – Feb 2019 Appraisal and Impact Assessment – May 2019 Public Consultation - Summer 2019 Final Shoreline Climate Resilience Management Plan and Action Plans – Oct 2019 Outline Scheme Development

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How you can contribute to where we are going – Feedback/Comments – Share local knowledge – Be Involved!

Future Jersey Long Term Integrated Flood and Erosion Management

www.gov.je – Climate change

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

Growth, Housing and Environment Coastal and Highway Maintenance

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Gunsite area - living, working and enjoying the area

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

  • Residential and commercial

properties

  • Number of shops, pubs and café
  • Popular beach for sports,

swimming and dog walking

  • Public car park
  • Promenade and cycle path
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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Flood events in 2008 and 2014

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Flood damage

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Flood events in 2008 and 2014

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

OPTIONS DEVELOPMENT

  • OBJECTIVES

– REDUCE FLOODING – PROTECT PROPERTIES – RESPECT THE ENVIRIONMENT – MAINTAIN THE AMENITY – AFFORDABILITY GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Raise the wall and add a wave recurve profile

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

  • Benefits:

– Reduce the volume of water overtopping

  • Disadvantages:

– Affect the sea view from promenade

  • Cost

– Medium

+7.500 +8.700

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

  • Benefits:

– Contain the water to the promenade

  • Disadvantages:

– Overtopping not reduced – Large volume of water to pump – Debris thrown over the wall will block drainage gullies

  • Cost

– Medium

Reshape the promenade, construct secondary wall and improve the drainage

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Flood gates at Gunsite Access Road, improve stop logs arrangement at steps and slip

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

  • Benefits:

– Reduces the need to transport 1 ton sandbags

  • Disadvantages:

– Overtopping not reduced – Reduced public parking

  • Cost

– Low

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Install Rock Armour on the beach

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

  • Benefits:

– Reduce the amount of water going

  • ver the wall
  • Disadvantages:

– Only small reduction in overtopping volumes – Not beach user friendly

  • Cost

– High

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Improve drainage to cope better with volumes

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

  • Benefits:

– Flood water is taken away more quickly

  • Disadvantages:

– Overtopping not reduced – Limited space to install pump station

  • Cost:

– High

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Public Consultation

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Option Benefits Disadvantages Cost 1

  • Raise the sea wall and add wave

return profile Reduces the volume of water

  • vertopped
  • Reduced sea view from promenade

Medium 2

  • Regrade the promenade
  • Construct secondary wall
  • Improve the drainage

Water retained

  • Overtopping not reduced
  • Large volume of water to pump.
  • Debris thrown over the wall will block drainage

gullies Medium 3

  • Flood gates at Gunsite Access Road
  • Improve stop logs arrangement at

steps and slip. Reduces the need to transport 1 ton sandbags.

  • Overtopping not reduced
  • Reduced public parking

Low 4

  • Install rock armour to reduce wave

action. Reduce the wave height

  • Limited in effect
  • Negative visual impact

High 5

  • Improve drainage

Water retained

  • Overtopping not reduced
  • Limited space to install pump station
  • Debris thrown over the wall will block drainage

gullies High

Options considered

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Overtopping volume

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME 2014 water levels and 50 years return period GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9 9.1 9.2

Total overtopping volume (m3/m) Top level of the wall (mAOD)

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Wave recurve profile

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Construction methodology

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Outcome

Picture by Ross Fearnley , Feb/18 GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Floodgate

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

Benefits achieved

  • Reduced flood risk
  • Reduced the overtopping on the promenade
  • Reduced the risk to promenade users from overtopping
  • Most of the sea view was retained
  • Community engaged with decision making process
  • Less operational cost not having to put sand bags on the access road

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME

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ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

ALWAYS RESPECTFUL BETTER TOGETHER CONSTANTLY IMPROVING CUSTOMER FOCUS WE DELIVER

ONE ISLAND ONE COMMUNITY ONE GOVERNMENT ONE FUTURE

THANK YOU

GUNSITE FLOOD ALLEVIATION SCHEME