Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Joshua W. Busby Todd G. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Joshua W. Busby Todd G. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Joshua W. Busby Todd G. Smith LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas - Austin 1 1 Agenda Brief introduction of project Discussion of our vulnerability mapping methodology and


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Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa

  • Joshua W. Busby
  • Todd G. Smith

LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas - Austin

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Agenda

  • Brief introduction of project
  • Discussion of our vulnerability mapping

methodology and continent-wide maps

  • Application to East Africa
  • Extensions
  • New Indicators

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Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS)

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  • North Texas
  • Idean Salehyan
  • William and Mary
  • Cullen Hendrix
  • Mike Tierney
  • Trinity College
  • Clionadh Raleigh
  • Brown University
  • Timmons Roberts

This material is based upon work supported by, or in part by, the U. S. Army Research Laboratory and the U. S. Army Research Office under contract/grant number W911NF-09-1- 0077.

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CCAPS

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http://ccaps.aiddata.org/

http://www.strausscenter.org/ccaps

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Question

  • How can we talk about the security

consequences of climate change in Africa?

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Mapping Climate Security Vulnerability

  • To develop sub-national maps of climate security

vulnerability

  • Not enough to say that Ethiopia is vulnerable to

climate change but which places within Ethiopia and why

  • Include physical hazards but also demographic, socio-

economic, and political indicators

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Security Focus

  • Security consequences include but are not limited

to conflict

  • Focus on situations where large numbers of

people could be exposed to mass death from climate-related hazards

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Maps of Chronic Vulnerability

  • Identify likely hot spots of future concern

based primarily on areas of historic vulnerability

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Our Approach

  • Four Baskets or Processes
  • Physical Exposure (25%)
  • Population Density (25%)
  • Community/Household Resilience (25%)
  • Governance and Political Violence (25%)

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Composite Measure

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Composite Measure

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East Africa

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  • In FY 2009, of the more than $2.1bn the U.S.

government spent on disaster relief in Africa, nearly 70% was directed to East Africa, with more than 40%

  • f the total directed to Sudan and another 16% to

Ethiopia.

  • East Africa also commanded more than 70% of

U.S. humanitarian funding in FY 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 (USAID-OFDA, 2010).

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East Africa

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Physical

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Population

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Household

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Governance

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Composite

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Overlays on Aid

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Validity Testing and Extensions

(1) “Ground Truthing” Field Work (2) Sensitivity Analysis (3) Difference Maps (4) Models of Future Climate Change (5) Econometric Model (6) Strategic Overlays

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  • Alternative measures of physical hazards based on water

anomaly data

  • Updated sub-national conflict data
  • Improved sub-national database of household resilience
  • Standardized sub-national units across indicators
  • Rather than overlaid raster files
  • Allows for statistical analysis as well as mapping analysis
  • Combination of shapefiles from …
  • Global Administrative Database (GADM)
  • Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL)
  • Map Library

Vulnerability Maps 3.0

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  • More and improved sub-national indicators

extracted from household survey data, mainly USAID sponsored Demographic and Health Surveys

  • Education participation
  • Literacy rates
  • Infant mortality
  • Malnutrition

Vulnerability Maps 3.0

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  • Switch from coarse quintiles to finer-grained

percent ranks

  • Allows for more detailed analysis
  • … and analysis of impacts of various policies
  • n overall vulnerability

Vulnerability Maps 3.0

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Vulnerability Maps 3.0

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  • Africa is least urbanized continent but this is

rapidly changing

  • Africa’s cities face a variety of complex challenges
  • Adding to and complicating all of these are the

challenges presented by the expected consequences of climate change

Urban Resilience to Climate Change Challenges in Africa

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  • Up to 80 % of the expected $80 billion to $100

billion per year in climate change adaptation costs will likely be borne by urban areas

  • World Bank report, Cities and Climate Change: An Urgent Agenda

Urban Resilience to Climate Change Challenges in Africa

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  • Some cities are taking adaptation action even in

the absence of leadership and support of national governments or international institutions

  • Many, however, are not for a variety of reasons
  • Competing priorities?
  • Lack of policies or failure of implementation?
  • Lack of resources or human capacity?
  • Political will or accountability?
  • Vertical or horizontal cooperation (or not)?

Urban Resilience to Climate Change Challenges in Africa

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  • Research questions

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How will the future consequences of climate change impact people living in African cities and what factors affect vulnerability or resilience to these impacts?

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What factors explain the variation, across climate hazard types and across urban areas, in the development of initiatives to build resilience to the relevant impacts of climate change?

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What factors determine whether the initiatives are adequately and sustainably implemented by the relevant actors and networks and how can implementation be improved?

Urban Resilience to Climate Change Challenges in Africa

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  • Our contributions
  • Institutional focus – free from political

constraints

  • Cross city comparison

Urban Resilience to Climate Change Challenges in Africa

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Case Study Cities

Alexandria Accra Cape Town Johannesburg Casablanca Dar es Salaam* Kampala* Dakar* Luanda Maputo*

* – LDC

  • Variation in …
  • Climate hazard profile
  • Geographic region
  • Economic development
  • Colonial legacy
  • 10 case studies
  • 9 conducted by Master’s

students

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Thank You!

This material is based upon work supported by, or in part by, the U. S. Army Research Laboratory and the U. S. Army Research Office under contract/grant number W911NF-09-1-0077.

ccaps.strausscenter.org toddgsmith@utexas.edu busbyj@utexas.edu