Climate Modeling for Global Warming Projection at the MRI Akira - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate Modeling for Global Warming Projection at the MRI Akira - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 10, 2022 162 likes •525 views

Climate Modeling for Global Warming Projection at the MRI Akira Noda and MRI-CGCM modeling group Meteorological Research Institute Transient runs w ith MRI-CGCMs Dow nscaling w ith MRI regional climate models Earth system modeling

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Climate Modeling for Global Warming Projection at the MRI

Akira Noda and MRI-CGCM modeling group Meteorological Research Institute

  • Transient runs w ith MRI-CGCMs
  • Dow nscaling w ith MRI regional

climate models

  • Earth system modeling for the

carbon cycle and chemical mass transport

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Chemical Mass Transport Ozone CMT Aerosol CMT Carbon Cycle Ice Sheet and Glacier

Global MRI-CGCM2 300km/250km Asian Regional Climate model 60km

Climate Modeling at MRI

Global AGCM 20km Cloud Resolving Regional Climate Model 5km Coupled Regional Climate Model 20km/20km

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  • Feature

MRI-CGCM1 MRI-CGCM2

  • Atmospheric component
  • Horizontal resolution 5° (long.) x 4° (lat.)

T42 (~2.8° x 2.8°)

  • Layers (top)

15 (1 hPa) 30 (0.4 hPa)

  • Solar radiation

Lacis and Hansen (1974) Shibata and Uchiyama (1992)

  • (SW)

H2O, O3 H2O, O3, CO2, O2aerosol

  • Long wave radiation Shibata and Aoki (1989)

Shibata and Aoki (1989)

  • (LW)

H2O, CO2, O3 H2O, CO2, O3, CH4, N2O

  • Convection

Arakawa and Schubert (1974) Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert

  • Randall and Pan (1993)
  • Planetary Boundary

Bulk layer (Tokioka et al., 1988) Mellor and Yamada (1974)

  • Layer (PBL)
  • Gravity wave drag

Palmer et al. (1986) Iwasaki et al. (1989)

  • Rayleigh friction

Rayleigh friction

  • Cloud type

Penetrative convection, Penetrative convection

  • Middle-level convection,
  • Large-scale condensation,

Large-scale condensation

  • stratus in PBL
  • Cloudiness

Saturation Function of relative humidity

  • Cloud overlap

Random for nonconsecutive clouds, Random + correlation

  • 0.3 for convective clouds
  • Cloud water content

Function of pressure and Function of temperature

  • temperature
  • Land process

4-layer diffusion model 3-layer simple biosphere (SiB)

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SLIDE 4
  • Feature

MRI-CGCM1 MRI-CGCM2

  • Oceanic component
  • Horizontal resolution 2.5° (long) x 2° to 0.5° (lat)
  • Layers (min. thickness)

21 (5.2 m) 23 (5.2 m)

  • Eddy viscosity
  • H. visc. 2.0 x 105 m2s–1
  • H. visc. 1.6 x 105 m2s–1
  • V. visc. 1 x 10–4 m2s–1
  • V. visc. 1 x 10–4 m2s–1
  • Eddy mixing

Horizontal-vertical mixing Isopycnal mixing

  • + Gent and McWilliams (1990)
  • H. diff. 5.0 x 103 m2s–1

Isopycnal 2.0 x 103 m2s–1

  • V. diff. 5.0 x 10–5m2s–1

Diapycnal 1.0 x 10–5 m2s–1

  • Vertical viscosity and Mellor and Yamada (1974, 1982)
  • diffusivity
  • Sea ice

Mellor and Kantha (1989)

  • Atmosphere-ocean coupling
  • Coupling interval

6 hours 24 hours

  • Flux adjustment

Heat, salinity Heat, salinity + wind stress (in the equatorial band 12°S to 12°N)

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SLIDE 5

IPCC SRES and Stabilization Scenarios

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A2 A1B B2

MRI-CGCM2.3

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(2071-2100) – (1961-1990))-

（

1961~ 1990）

変化パタ ーンに大き な差は見ら れない。

MRI-CGCM2.3

Surface Air Temp. Change

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SLIDE 8

Spatial patterns of Global Warming and Natural Variability MRI-CGCM

Due to CO2 increase 小 大 Due to El Nino － ＋

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Spatial patterns of Global Warming and Natural Variability Had-CGCM

Due to CO2 increase 大 小 Due to El Nino ＋ －

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Due to El Nino ＋ － Due to CO2 increase 大 小

GFDL-CGCM Spatial patterns of Global Warming and Natural Variability

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Mechanism of ENSO-like Change

EAST

Mechanism of ENSO ENSO-like Change

WARM COLD 200ｍ WEST INDONESIA PERU

Walker circulation

Cane et al, 1997 Kitoh et al, 1999 Knutson and Manabe, 1995,1998 Meehl and Washington, 1996

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Mechanism of AO-like Change

  • Temp. dependence
  • f moist adiabaitic

laps rate snow-ice melt stable stratification Manabe and Wetherald (1975) stronger snow/albedo feedback near the troughs Noda et al. (1996)

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Possible global warming patterns suggested by CGCMs Observed trend

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Comparison between Simulated AO-like and ENSO-like Changes

El Niño El Niño SO ? El Niño SO: La Niña La Niña AO

CCSR/NIES HadCM3 ECHAM3/LSG ECHAM4/OPYC3 GFDL15 MRI1

Non- AO

CCCma CSIRO GFDL/R30 HadCM2 IPSL MRI2 NCAR

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SLIDE 20

Chemical Mass Transport Ozone CMT Aerosol CMT Carbon Cycle Ice Sheet and Glacier

Climate Modeling at MRI

Global AGCM 20km Cloud Resolving Regional Climate Model 5km Asian Regional Climate model 60km Coupled Regional Climate Model 20km/20km Global MRI-CGCM2 300km/250km

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SLIDE 21

pCO2air

DIC

Alkalinity P h

  • s

p h a t e

O2

insolation

O2 saturation ∆pCO2 ×exchange coeff.

c h e m i c a l e q u i l i b r i u m

Carbon Cycle Model (included in MRI-CGCM)

N N e e w w P P r r

  • d

d u u c c t t i i

  • n

n ～ ～ I n s

  • l

a t i

  • n

× P h

  • s

p h a t e

P a r t i c u l a t e O r g a n i c M a t t e r

CaCO3

d e e p l a y e r

e(−z/3500m)

(z/100m)−0.9

106 106 9.5 9.5 16 19 19 16 1 1 138 138

DIC

Advection and Diffusion by OGCM

surface layer (60m)

NPP (Temp., Precipitation)

leaf

branch

stem root

Ocean

litter

humus

stable humus charcoal

1 y r 1 y r 5 y r 1 y r 1 y r 5 y r 5 y r

Atmosphere

pCO2sea

P h

  • s

p h a t e Alkalinity

O2

r e m i n e r a l i z a t i

  • n

d i s s

  • l

u t i

  • n

r e s p i r a t i

  • n

r e s p i r a t i

  • n

Terrestrial Biosphere

Terrestrial Biosphere Model follows Goudriaan and Ketner (1984). NPP (Miami model: Lieth (1975), Friedlingstein et al. (1992)). Ocean model by Obata (2001) and Obata and Kitamura (2003)

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Ocean Carbon Cycle Model

by Meteorological Research Institute

Climate change experiment Climate change experiment 1961-1998 1961-1998 (driven by NCEP w ind and JMA SST)

Figure:

Sea-to-Air CO2 flux (in GtC/year)

dashed line: global (variability (1std) = 0.23 GtC/yr) solid thick line: each region Equatorial eastern Pacific (0.13 GtC/yr) is dominant by the ENSO (during El Niño, weak easterly, weak upwelling, reduced carbon supply from deeper waters and reduced sea-air CO2 flux). Obata and Kitamura, Interannual variability of the sea-air exchange of CO2 from 1961 to 1998 …..,

  • J. Geophys. Res., 108 (C11), 2003.

気象研海洋炭素循環モデルによる海洋大気間二酸化炭素交換の経年変動(1961-1998)

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MRI model in 1976

( p C O 2 a i r = 3 1 5 p p m )

More detailed model Woodward et al. (GBC, 1995) G l

  • b

a l a m

  • u

n t = 5 8 G t C / y e a r

Net Primary Production

(empirically determined from temperature andprecipitation, including pCO2air fertilization effect)

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Global warming experiment using Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission (IS92a scenario 1999-2100)

Emission: CDIAC(1850-1998), IS92a(1999-2100). （ N2O, CH4, Halocarbon, tropos. Ozone: IS92a concentration） Initial（ 1850） Atmos 592 GtC Ocean 36343 GtC Land 2412 GtC

GtC Carbon budget 1850-2100

Emission

Atmos

Ocean Land 1 G t C

Model

℃

Warming of 1℃→ →Warming of 1.5℃ 7 p p m 5 6 4 3 year

Observation

Negative denotes increase for ocean and land.

Atmospheric CO2

ppm

year

mm/year Global precipitation Global surface air temperature

year year

CO2 to the atmosphere from land-use change (e.g., 124 GtC: 1850-1990) is not included.

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Atlantic Meridional Circulation related to NADW formation

(Contour interval = 2×106m3/s)

Depth (m) Depth (m) Year: 1860 Year: 2100

Global warming experiment (IS92a CO2 emission) NADW is reduced by 20 %. 18Sv ↓ 14Sv

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Chemical Mass Transport Ozone CMT Aerosol CMT Carbon Cycle Ice Sheet and Glacier

Cloud Resolving Regional Climate Model 5km Global AGCM 20km

Climate Modeling at MRI

Asian Regional Climate model 60km Coupled Regional Climate Model 20km/20km Global MRI-CGCM2 300km/250km

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1981～2010 Present Climate 2041～2080 Warmed Climate

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Annual mean SST

RCM Observation （ WOA）

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Model TOPEX/Poseidon （ 1993-1999）

Dynamical sea level height (cm) Dynamical sea level height (cm)

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Chemical Mass Transport Ozone CMT Aerosol CMT Carbon Cycle Ice Sheet and Glacier

Global AGCM 20km

Climate Modeling at MRI

Cloud Resolving Regional Climate Model 5km Asian Regional Climate model 60km Coupled Regional Climate Model 20km/20km Global MRI-CGCM2 300km/250km

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Earth Simulator

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２ ０ ｋ ｍメ ッ シュ 全球気候モデルによる 現在気候の再現

１ 時間降水量( m m )

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TL959による台風のシミ ュ レーショ ン

  • 動画
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Simulations

  • f Tropical Cyclones

With AGCM of T106 Sugi, Noda and Sato (JMSJ, 2002)

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More results are coming soon.

Acknow ledgment Computational resources are supplied by MRI, CGER/NIES and Earth Simulator.