Climate Ireland: A Case Study of Facilitating Local Authority - - PDF document

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Climate Ireland: A Case Study of Facilitating Local Authority Planning for Climate Change

Barry O’Dwyer, MaREI, UCC

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Ireland’s Climate Information Platform (ICIP) - Cl Clima imate Irela land

• EPA-Funded Research Project
• Aim: Design and develop a one-stop web-based resource of climatic and

adaptation information (www.climateireland.ie) to facilitate climate adaptation decision making while also acting as a source of climatic and adaptation information for the general Public

• A phased Approach to Development:

Phase 1 – Discovery Prototype (2011- 2013) Phase 2 – Pre-operational ICIP (2013- 2015) (Local Authority) Phase 3 – Operational ICIP (2015- 2016) (Sectors)

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Local l Au Authorities - Base seline Understanding

In Summary:

• Local Authority (LA) Reps consider climate

change to be a significant issue;

• Awareness of the impacts is highest amongst

coastal LAs;

• Fit-for-purpose information is deemed hard to

find;

• Current risks form the basis for interpretation
• f future climate risk

Survey of Local Authority Representatives (36), December 2015-January 2016)

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Development of the ICIP Platform Based on Best Practice Adaptation Decision-making frameworks

Understanding/ Awareness Data Provision Decision Support

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Na Nation

• nal

l Requir quirements of

• f Adap

Adaptatio ion n Decis cision

• n

mak akin ing at the he loc local al le level

• What should adaptation

decision making at the local level comprise?  Strategies (50- 100 year time horizons),  Iterative & Overarching.

• How should it be implemented?

 Through LA Development Plans and Strategies (incl. in-house)

• What should it aim to achieve?

 Raise awareness and understanding;  Include climate change considerations in all aspects

• f LA planning.

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

ICIP’s Local Authority Adaptation Support Wizard

Scope  Initial Risk Screening for climate risk;  Analysis of key climate risks; ✗ Detail Risk Assessment (e.g grey)

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

St Step p 1 1 – Ge Gettin ing St Start arted

• Development of pre-requisite knowledge is essential
• Understanding of current climate, changes and

impacts (National to Local);

• Understanding of the adaptation process (A lot of

spent time on now undisputed science);

• Useful engagement cues (prompts/ice breakers) for

Adaptation Team Leaders.

ICIP’s ‘The Status of Ireland’s Climate 2012 Tool’ ICIP’s ‘Climate information Viewer’ ICIP’s ‘Sectoral information Tool’

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

• 1. High

Level/National Messages

• 2. Prioritisation
• 3. Regional & Local Climate

Information

ICIP’s ‘Essential Climate Information Tool’ ICIP’s ‘Climate Information Tool’

• 1. Climate Risk Screening

Aim: Develop wide-ranging understanding

Current Potential Future

• 2. Prioritisation (Objectives)

Aim: Make it relevant/Situationalise

LA Objectives National Priorities

• 3. Assessment

Aim: Detailed Understanding

Current Emerging

As Asse sessi sing Cli limate Im Impacts s & & Risk Risk

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

• However - tends to focus on memorable extremes
• Requirement to change perceptions and improve/kickstart

understanding of gradual/emerging climate impacts

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Use the following tables to undertake a preliminary assessment of the impacts of observed changes in climate (Table 2) and extreme weather events (Table 3) on your area. This assessment should be informed by literature review and stakeholder input and will form the basis for the prioritisation of impacts for further analysis through case study example.

Observed Climatic trends: Observed Potential Impacts Magnitude of Impact Buildings & Infrastructure Health & Well being Habitats, Parks & Green Spaces Eco. Soc. Env. Temperatures Increasing temperatures

• Upwelling in Vartry

reservoir resulting in algal bloom and impacting on water supply.

• Invasive species (Japanese

knotweed; Himalayan Balsam, Giant Hogweed (Dodder))

• Expansion of tourist season
• Street trees affected by by increase

temperature and decreased summer rainfall

• Over-wintering of rexotic eptiles

Med Low Precipitation & Hydrology Increase in annual average rainfall (5%)

• Erosion of uplands (Dublin

Mountains, tourist resource)

Low Increases in winter high river flows

• Erosion of banks (Dodder)

Low Phenology Increasing duration

• f growing season
• Year round grass growth requires

cutting resulting in damage to sites due to unsuitable ground conditions, more staff and contractors required.

Low

Table 2.2 1

Evidence of observed climate change impacts is strongest and most comprehensive for natural systems (IPCC AR5).

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Using the table below and with reference to current climate or weather related impacts currently affecting your authority, provide details of the potential impacts of these changes for your area. In addition, provide details for emerging impacts, i.e. may not be currently affecting you but are likely to become an issue in the future. Climate Change: Current Magnitude

• f Impact

Projected Change (2041-2060) Potential Future Impacts Potential Future magnitude of Impact Eco. Soc. Env. Buildings & Infra. Health & Wellbeing Habitats, Parks & Greenspaces Eco. Soc. Env. Temperatures Summer Temperatures Med Low ↑(0.9-1.7 deg C).

• Potential to exacerbate

existing water quality issues at Vartry

• Increased

business

• pportunities
• Increase adverse

health and welfare effects in summer (see heatwaves);

• Increased public

safety risk (water- based activities)

• Increased occurrence
• f

invasive/exotic species, threating native populations and disruption to maintenance and construction;

• Increased

water pollution;

• Increased

Grass growth; High Low High Precipitation Winter rainfall Low ↑ (0 - 14%)

• Increased

damp in housing stock and assoc. maintenance costs.

• Increased levels of soil

saturation (see flooding)

• Increased

isolation

• f

vulnerable communities;

• Health

issues related to damp housing stock.

• Increased erosion of

uplands;

• Decreased level of

engagement of public green spaces. Low Low Med

Impact Screening – Gradual Climate Changes (Projected)

Consequence - A Basis for Risk Analysis

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Pri rioritisa sation of

• f Cli

limate Risk Risks

• Requirement that risks must be considered in terms of current and emerging risk
• Impacts must be prioritised according to LA remits/objectives/existing planning

practices:

• County Development Plan Social

Housing & Home Adaptation

• Regional and Local roads
• Environmental Protection (Air,

noise, water & waste)

• In house-strategies (e.g. tourism

strategies)

• Impacts need to be considered in terms
• f both local/regional and national

priorities

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

As Asse sess ssment – Mor

• re Detail

ailed (Ris isk Anal Analysi sis)

• Case Study (Current and Projected)
• A vulnerability approach
• Exposure (where?), sensitivity

(who or what?) and measures in place (adaptive capacity)?

• Any discussion of projected

vulnerability must be firmly based in an understanding of current climate vulnerability

• Employs ranges of projected climate

data:

• Critical Thresholds

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

As Asse sess ssment – Obser served and and Proj

• jected

24ºC 26ºC 28ºC 30ºC

Threshold – Sleep is interrupted Threshold – Uncomfortably hot

A number of studies have shown that indoor temperature in hospitals can reach 30ºC when

• utside temperature is 22ºC

Exposure

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Ide dentifying, ng, As Asse sessi sing ng & Prio iorit ritisi sing ng Adap Adaptatio ion n Options ions

Adapted from Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation (2010)

Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

Conclusions an and Rec ecommendations

• Climate Information/Adaptation

Platforms can play a key role in developing adaptation actions at the local level;

• Facilitate bottom-up planning and

help users in overcoming uncertainty at levels appropriate for planning/action;

• However, still remains requirement

for training/capacity building;

• An understanding of decision-making

context is critical.

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Adaptation Frontiers 2016, 4th International Climate Adaptation Conference, Rotterdam, May 10th-13th 2016

http://www.climateireland.ie http://dev.climateireland.ie (for access to LA Wizard) b.odwyer@ucc.ie