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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization: Prospects for Using HyspIRI Data Products for Click to edit Master title style Regional to Global Societal Impacts Analysis Click to edit


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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

The Conundrum of Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization: Prospects for Using HyspIRI Data Products for Regional to Global Societal Impacts Analysis

Dale A. Quattrochi, NASA, Earth Science Office, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama U.S.A.

2011 HyspIRI Science Workshop – GSFC - May 17-18

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

THE CONUNDRUM:

  • The 21st century is the first “urban century”
  • In 2000, approximately 3 billion people (40% of global

population) resided in urban areas

  • The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 60% of the

world’s population will live in cities

  • As a consequence, the number of “megacities” – those

cities with populations of 10 million or more – will increase to 100 by 2025

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Key Question Regarding Urbanization and the Impacts

  • f Climate Change on Urbanization
  • How does urbanization affect the local, regional, and global

environment and how will climate change impact the overall effects that urban areas have on the environment?

  • What changes can be observed and measured in the albedo and

emissivity of urban surfaces for different cities around the world?

  • How will these factors impact urban heat island dynamics under

climate change scenarios at the local, regional, and even global scales?

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

  • TQ4. Urbanization/Human Health

– How does urbanization affect the local, regional and global environment? Can we characterize this effect to help mitigate its impact on human health and welfare?

  • How do changes in land cover and land use affect surface energy balance and

the sustainability and productivity of natural and human ecosystems?

  • What are the dynamics, magnitude, and spatial form of the urban heat island

effect (UHI), how does it change from city to city, what are its temporal, diurnal, and nocturnal characteristics, and what are the regional impacts of the UHI on biophysical, climatic, and environmental processes?

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

  • TQ4. Urbanization/Human Health (Cont’d)
  • How can the characteristics associated with environmentally related health

effects, such as factors influencing heat stress on humans and surface temperatures that affect vector-borne and animal-borne diseases, be better resolved and measured?

  • How do horizontal and temporal scales of variation in heat flux and mixing

relate to human health, human ecosystems, and urbanization?

  • What changes can be observed and measured in emissivities of urban

surfaces and how do emissivities change for different cities around the world as they impact the urban heat island and associated land-atmosphere energy balance characteristics?

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITIES AND IMPACTS IN HUMAN SETTLEMENTS Determinants of Vulnerabilities/Impacts In many cases, it has been difficult to project impacts

  • f climate change

Climate change forecasts currently are not specific enough for decision- making at the human settlement/urban level

  • More often, attention is paid to vulnerabilities to climate change
  • At the current state of knowledge, vulnerabilities to possible impacts are

easier to project than actual impacts

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Potentials for Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Settlements Where climate change might present risks of adverse impacts for settlements and their populations, there are two basic alternatives to respond to such concerns:

  • 1. Mitigation strategies (e.g., by taking actions to reduce their greenhouse

gas emissions and by showing leadership in encouraging others to support such actions)

  • 2. Adaptation strategies (e.g., finding ways either to reduce sensitivity to

projected changes or to increase the settlement’s coping capacities)

  • 3. Combining both mitigation and adaptation strategies
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d

THE CHALLENGE:

  • Wha

hat t will be the will be the role

  • le tha

that t HyspIRI HyspIRI will play will play in addr in addressing the v essing the vexing xing quest questions ions rela elated t ted to c

  • clima

limate i te impacts mpacts on urban ar

  • n urban areas?

eas?

  • Wha

hat t kind kinds of s of HyspIRI HyspIRI da data ta pr produ

  • ducts

cts will be ne will be neede eded a d at local, r t local, region gional al and and global scales lobal scales t to

  • ad

addr dress ess t these ques hese questions tions?

  • Ho

How w can can HyspIRI HyspIRI da data be u ta be used sed to help to help de develop elop ris risk k assess assessmen ment t plan plans s and and mit mitiga igation and ada tion and adapta ptation s tion str trate tegies gies for c

  • r clima

limate te change impacts hange impacts tha that t can be used can be used by decis by decision mak ion maker ers, s, polic policy mak y maker ers, s, and the and the gener general al pub public? lic?

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization Societal Indicators of Climate Change: Climate Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation

Although there are many, HyspIRI data products can target several indicators to identify and monitor climate change impacts on urban areas, help assess the vulnerability/risk of urban areas to climate change, and assist in developing adaptation measures as related to:

  • Human health, heat mortality and morbidity vectors (e.g., heat events)
  • Heat and air quality
  • Urban Heat Island (UHI)
  • Land Cover/Land Use change
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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Critical to Societal Indicators and Climate Change Impacts and Responses are:

  • We must have measurable and reliable data
  • These data must be verifiable and validated
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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

An ideal approach is to develop “nested” indicators so that the same indicator approach can be used at local, regional, and national scales to allow for comparisons across different geographical regions and for the targeted identification of vulnerable locations.

Societal Indicators of Climate Change: Climate Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation – Spatial and Temporal Scaling

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Human health, heat mortality, morbidity vectors:

  • HyspIRI Data Products:
  • Surface temperature across the urban landscape

(local, regional, national scales)

60m Mutispectral TIR data/day & night acquisition Excellent NEdT (0.2 K) 5-day repeat cycle 600 km swath width

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Heat and air quality:

  • HyspIRI Data Products:
  • Urban surface heating through time

for input into air quality models (regional, national scale)

60m Mutispectral TIR data Excellent NEdT (0.2 K) 5-day repeat cycle/day & night acquisition 600 km swath width

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Value

H L

80 Monthly Asthma Visits Rate (Per 10,000)

Year 2002

Value

H L

30 Monthly Mean PM2.5 (ug/m3)

Year 2002

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Urban Heat Island (UHI):

  • HyspIRI Data Products:
  • Urban land cover change, surface energy

fluxes through time, albedo (local to regional scales)

60 Hyperspectral VSWIR data with good revisit time 60m Mutispectral TIR data Excellent NEdT (0.2 K) 5-day repeat cycle/day & night acquisition 600 km swath width

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Land Cover/Land Use change:

  • HyspIRI Data Products:
  • Urban land cover change (local, regional,

~national scales)

60 Hyperspectral VSWIR data: 19-day revisit time @ equator 3-days cross-track pointing 60m Mutispectral TIR data @ 5-day revisit time 600 km swath width

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization Summary Utility of HyspIRI Data Products to the National Climate Assessment and for the World:

  • Measurable and reliable data
  • Data will be verified and validated
  • Data collected can be applied to local, regional, national – and global scales
  • Data will fill significant gap for identifying climate indicators (physical/ecological/social)

using remote sensing that can be integrated and assimilated with other non-remotely sensed data on societal conditions to better evaluate climate change impacts on urban areas, assess the vulnerability/risk of urban areas to climate change, and assist in developing adaptation measures

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

+

+ =

Hys HyspIRI pIRI Hyper Hyperspect spectral al VSWIR VSWIR Le Level II el II Pr Product

  • duct

(NDVI VI, , fPAR, AR, surf urface ace ref eflectance lectance char haracteris acteristics tics)

Hys HyspIRI pIRI TI TIR mult R multispect ispectral al Le Level el II II pr produ

  • duct

ct (8 (8 TI TIR R Bands Bands)

(surf urface ace temper temperatur ture, r e, radiance, adiance, [day day/night] night], , emis emissiv ivity ity)

Hys HyspIRI pIRI VSWIR/TIR VSWIR/TIR composit composite e da data s ta set et

(quantita quantitativ tive e inte integrativ tive e me meas asur urem ement ent of

  • f urb

urban an surf urface ace ref eflectances lectances, , temper temperatur tures es, , and and emis emissiv ivity ity acr acros

  • ss the urban

the urban ecos ecosystem) tem)

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+

+ =

Hys HyspIRI pIRI Hyper Hyperspect spectral al VSWIR VSWIR Le Level II el II Pr Product

  • duct

(NDVI VI, , fPAR, AR, surf urface ace ref eflectance lectance char haracteris acteristics tics)

Hys HyspIRI pIRI TI TIR mult R multispect ispectral al Le Level el II II pr produ

  • duct

ct (8 (8 TI TIR R Bands Bands)

(surf urface ace temper temperatur ture, r e, radiance, adiance, [day day/night] night], , emis emissiv ivity ity)

Hys HyspIRI pIRI VSWIR/TIR VSWIR/TIR composit composite e land co land cover er chan hange ge da data ta set set

(quantita quantitativ tive e inte integrativ tive e meas measur urement ement of

  • f urban

urban surf urface ace ref eflectances lectances, , temper temperatur tures es, , and and emis emissiv ivity ity acr acros

  • ss the urban

the urban ecos ecosystem tem as as they they c change hange thr through

  • ugh time)

time)

Thr hrou

  • ugh

gh Time Time

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

=

HyspIR yspIRI I Hype yperspe spectral l VSWIR VSWIR Le Level l II II Pr Product (N (NDVI, VI, fP fPAR, AR, sur surfac ace r e reflect eflectan ance ce characteris istics) ics) HyspIR yspIRI I TIR mult TIR multis ispectral l Level l II II product (8 (8 TIR Ba TIR Bands) s) (surf (surface tempe mperature, , radianc iance, , [d [day/n y/night], ight], emis missi sivi vity) y)

Lida Lidar Data ta

HyspIRI HyspIRI VSW VSWIR/T IR/TIR IR and and Lidar Lidarcomposit composite da data ta set set

(X, X, y, , z z surf urface ace ref eflectance/t lectance/ther hermal mal inte interact action ions of

  • f urb

urban an ecos ecosystem tem pr proces

  • cesses

es)

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=

Hype yperspe spectral l VSWIR VSWIR Level l II P II Product (ND (NDVI, VI, fP fPAR AR, , surf surface r reflec flectance characteris istics) ics) HyspIR yspIRI I TIR mult TIR multis ispectral l Level l II II product (8 (8 TIR Ba TIR Bands) s) (surf (surface tempe mperature, , radianc iance, , [d [day/n y/night], ight], emis missi sivi vity) y)

Hys HyspIRI pIRI VSWIR SWIR/TIR /TIR and and DEM EM co compo mposi site te da data set ta set

( ( hype yperspc spctral/da l/day/n y/night ight TIR digit TIR digital l ele leva vation mo ion model l data s sets)) s)) Digit Digital l Topographic ic Da Data (DEM (DEM)

}

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Impacts of Climate Change on Urbanization

Tornado track ASTER data

(MSFC SPoRT Lab)

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Tornado track ASTER data (MSFC SPoRT Lab)