Clean Energy Business and Policy Beijing Institute of Technology - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Clean Energy Business and Policy Beijing Institute of Technology School of Management and Economics Fall 2014 Lecture #5: Transport October 25, 2014 Professor Eric Martinot

• 1. Energy efficiency and demand reduction in transport
• 2. Future scenarios for low-carbon and low-emissions transport
• 3. Electric vehicles, hydrogen, and biofuels
• 4. Environmental comparisons
• 5. Vehicle cost reductions
• 6. Policies for sustainable transport
• 7. Business strategies in transport

use imply above assump- disruptive 2010 ), (dis- chapter security

• f

transport growing 6%/year,

10 20 30 40 Transport Industry Building Others Change of Oil Demand (EJ)

• 10

Rest of World Other Asia India China OECD Figure 9.25 | Reference scenario: projected changes in oil demand, 2006 –2030. Source: adapted from IEA, 2010a .

FIGURE 6.3. WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF ON-ROAD AUTOMOBILE GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL INTENSITIES IN OECD COUNTRIES, 1970–95 Australia United States Japan France Italy Norway Denmark Netherlands Canada Litres of gasoline per 100 kilometres 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Figure 7.4: Light motor vehicles entering the fl eet in 2006 (new and used) 2% Diesel 11+ litres/100km 6% Diesel 9.5–10.99 litres/100km 6% Diesel 8–9.49 litres/100km 2% Diesel 6–7.99 litres/100km 13% Petrol 11+ litres/100km 21% Petrol 9.5–10.99 litres/100km 23% Petrol 8–9.49 litres/100km 23% Petrol 6–7.99 litres/100km 4% Petrol under 6 litres/100km

Source: Ministry of Transport

, vehicle as account- year land and have factors , Modal cyc- and use that

200 400 600 800 USA Japan Germany Mexico Brazil Malaysia China India Vehicle ownership (per 1000 people) Cars Other-4wheelers 2-wheelers

Figure 9.8 | Vehicular penetration in 2006 of several developed and developing countries (other four-wheelers include busses and trucks). Source: based on MoRTH, 2009 .

BLUE Map scenario

2050 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Hydrogen fuel cell Hydrogen hybrid Electricity CNG and LPG Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline Hybrid diesel Hybrid gasoline Diesel Gasoline

figure 5.13: global: final energy consumption for transport under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario

PJ/a 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

REF REF REF REF REF REF E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

• ‘EFFICIENCY’
• HYDROGEN
• ELECTRICITY
• BIOFUELS
• NATURAL GAS
• OIL PRODUCTS

table 11.1: selection of measures and indicators

MEASURE

Reduction of transport demand Modal shift Energy efficiency improvements

INDICATOR

Passenger-km/capita Ton-km/unit of GDP MJ/tonne-km MJ/Passenger-km MJ/Passenger-km,| MJ/Ton-km MJ/Passenger-km, MJ/Ton-km MJ/Passenger-km, MJ/Ton-km

REDUCTION OPTION

Reduction in volume of passenger transport in comparison to the Reference scenario Reduction in volume of freight transport in comparison to the Reference scenario Modal shift from trucks to rail Modal shift from cars to public transport Shift to energy efficient passenger car drive trains (battery electric vehicles, hybrid and fuel cell hydrogen cars) and trucks (fuel cell hydrogen, battery electric, catenary or inductive supplied) Shift to powertrain modes that may be fuelled by renewable energy (electric, fuel cell hydrogen) Autonomous efficiency improvements of LDV, HDV, trains, airplanes over time

Institut für Stromrichtertechnik und Elektrische Antriebe

Folie 15 Threats and opportunities for storage technologies

24.11.2008 Dirk Uwe Sauer

Electrification concepts for passenger cars

Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) Storage capacity approx. 1 kWh, charging only during driving, fuel reduction max. 20% Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) Storage capacity 5 – 10 kWh, charging from the grid, 30 to 70 km electrical driving range, full driving range with conventional engine or fuel cell, driving with empty battery possible Electric vehicle (EV) Storage capacity 15 – 40 kWh, charging from the grid, 100 to 300 km electrical driving range

Automobile Technology “Energy Efficiency Chains” (all efficiency figures indicative)

• 1. Ordinary gasoline car

transport oil from well 0.97

• il -> gasoline refining

0.90 transport to gas station 0.998 gas pump into car 0.997 combustion in engine 0.18 net efficiency 0.16

• 3. Pure electric car; electricity from coal

transport coal from mine 0.95 coal -> electricity 0.35 electric transmission 0.92 battery charging 0.88 battery discharging 0.88 motor and controller 0.90 net efficiency 0.21

• 2. Natural gas hybrid vehicle

gas pipeline transport 0.99 gas->compressed storage 0.92

• comp. storage -> engine

0.99 H2 storage H2 -> engine 0.99 hybrid ICE/electric engine 0.30 net efficiency 0.28

• 4. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle; hydrogen

from natural gas gas pipeline transport 0.99 gas reforming to H2 0.80 compressed storage of H2 0.92 H2 storage -> fuel cell 0.99 fuel cell 0.45 motor and controller 0.90 net efficiency 0.30

Figure 9.30 | Relative amount of energy required for different supply chains (the shaded area corresponds to the energy remaining at the wheel) and well-to-wheel GHG emission for various powertrain/fuel combinations. Source: based on Creutzig et al., 2011a.

8,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 20 40 MIT-2035 (1284kg)

D HEV G-2035 D-2035 Gturbo2035 HEV-2035

80

G

G-HEV G-adv

D D-HEV D-adv

IEA-ETP-2050

Toyota Camry G-DI

HEV

G-2010

D-DPF2010 D D-HEV D-DPF-HEV D-2010

10,000 12,000

Li ion:6kWh ZEV:20km

Increased Vehicle Cost ($) Efficiency increase relative to REF(%) 20 60 MIT-2035 (1284kg)

Gturbo D HEV G-2035 D-2035 Gturbo2035 HEV-2035 PHEV-2035 G

G-HEV

D D-HEV D-adv

IEA-ETP-2050 MIT-2008 (1571kg)

Toyota Camry G-DI

HEV

G-2010

D-DPF2010 D D-HEV D-DPF-HEV

G-DI2010

D-2010

Concawe (2007) MIT-

HEV G-2035 D-2035 HEV-2035 G

G-HEV G-adv

D D-HEV D-adv

• HEV

G-2010

D-DPF2010 D-HEV D-DPF-HEV D-2010

G-2035 HEV-2035 G D D-HEV

MIT-2008 (1571kg)

HEV D-HEV D-DPF-HEV

• Concawe (2007)

Figure 9.32 | Price increase of vehicle due to effi ciency increase. Data for IEA are shown as ellipses indicating the range of data. (G: gasoline, D: diesel, DI: direct-injec- tion, DPF: particulate fi lter) Source: based on data from EUCAR/CONCAWE/JRC, 2006 ; Bandivadekar, 2008 ; IEA, 2008 .

Biofuels Policies and Other Transport-Sector Policies

• Biofuels blending mandates (ethanol blended w/gasoline and biodiesel blended w/diesel)
• Policy goals/targets for share of transportation energy from renewables
• EU target of 10% of transport energy by 2020, including biofuels & electric vehicles
• Individual EU country targets, typical is 5.75% of transport energy by 2010
• Gasoline taxes (or exemptions, i.e., for biofuels)
• Biofuels production subsidies
• Energy-efficiency standards for vehicles, either by vehicle type or by manufacturer
• CAFE (corporate average fuel efficiency) standards in the U.S.
• Rebates, tax credits for purchasing hybrid or electric vehicles
• Tax preferences for “flex-fuel” vehicles that run on both gasoline and pure (E85) ethanol
• Electric vehicle recharging infrastructure development
• Public transit development, city-center vehicle restrictions, carpool lanes
• High-occupancy vehicle lanes (HOV) open to hybrid or electric vehicles
• Tax credits for research and development
• Mandates (on auto makers) for future levels/shares of zero- or low-emissions vehicles

TABLE R15. NATIONAL AND STATE/PROVINCIAL BIOFUEL BLEND MANDATES

Country Mandate Angola E10 Argentina E5 and B7 Australia Provincial: E4 and B2 in New South Wales; E5 in Queensland Belgium E4 and B4 Brazil E18–25 and B5 Canada National: E5 and B2. Provincial: E5 and B4 in British Columbia; E5 and B2 in Alberta; E7.5 and B2 in Saskatchewan; E8.5 and B2 in Manitoba; E5 in Ontario China E10 in nine provinces Colombia E8 Costa Rica E7 and B20 Ethiopia E5 Guatemala E5 India E5 Indonesia B2.5 and E3 Jamaica E10 Malawi E10 Malaysia B5 Mozambique E10 in 2012–2015; E15 in 2016–2020; E20 from 2021 Paraguay E24 and B1 Peru B2 and E7.8 Philippines E10 and B2 South Africa E10 South Korea B2.5 Sudan E5 Thailand E5 and B5 Turkey E2 United States National: The Renewable Fuels Standard 2 (RFS2) requires 136 billion litres (36 billion gallons) of renew- able fuel to be blended annually with transport fuel by 2022. State: E10 in Missouri and Montana; E9–10 in Florida; E10 in Hawaii; E2 and B2 in Louisiana; B4 by 2012, and B5 by 2013 (all by July 1 of the given year) in Massachusetts; E10 and B5, B10 by 2013, and E20 by 2015 in Minnesota; B5 after 1 July 2012 in New Mexico; E10 and B5 in Oregon; B2 one year after in-state production of biodiesel reaches 40 million gal- lons, B5 one year after 100 million gallons, B10 one year after 200 million gallons, and B20 one year after 400 million gallons in Pennsylvania; E2 and B2, increasing to B5 180 days after in-state feedstock and

• il-seed crushing capacity can meet 3% requirement in Washington.

Uruguay B5; E5 by 2015 Vietnam E5 Zambia E10 and B5 Zimbabwe E5, to be raised to E10 and E15

Italy Japan Spain

US$/liter

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4

US tax: US$ 56/t CO2 Norway tax: US$ 576/t CO2

Gasoline price to consumer

Taxes Price without tax

Mexico United States a d a n a C New Zealand Australia Korea Poland Switzerland Austria Luxembourg Slovak Rep. Czech Rep. Hungary Greece Ireland United Kingdom Sweden France Portugal Germany Finland Denmark Belgium Netherlands Norway Turkey

Figure 1.27 | Gasoline prices with and without taxes in US$/liter and implied price of carbon (US$/tCO

2

) for 1st quarter of 2010. Source: data from IEA, 2011.

Policies(and(Measures(for(Transport((GEA(Chapter(9.6)!

! !

• Reduce!the!Need!to!Travel!
• Accessibility!
• Modal!Interconnectedness!
• Regional!Transit9Oriented!Developments!
• Enhancing!Mobility!Management!

!

• Develop!Alternatives!to!Car!Use!
• Public!Transportation!(Bus!Rapid!Transit,!Light!Rail,!Heavy!Rail)!
• Other!Means!of!Transportation!(Non9Motorized!Modes)!
• Telecommuting!and!Communication!Technology!

!

• Improve!Use!of!Existing!Infrastructure!
• Parking!Management!Policies!
• Intelligent!Traffic/Infrastructure!Systems!

!

• Policies!for!Alternative!Fuels!and!Efficient!Vehicles!!
• New!Vehicle!and!Fuel!Economy!Standards!
• Used!Vehicle!Emissions!Standards!
• Reducing!the!Carbon!Intensity!of!Fuels!

!

• Creating!Economic!Incentives!or!Disincentives!!
• Fuel!Taxation!and!Carbon!Pricing!
• Vehicle!Taxation!and!Subsidies!
• Road!User!Charging!