Clean Energy Business and Policy Beijing Institute of Technology School of Management and Economics Fall 2014 Lecture #5: Transport October 25, 2014 Professor Eric Martinot 1. Energy efficiency and demand reduction in transport 2. Future scenarios for low-carbon and low-emissions transport 3. Electric vehicles, hydrogen, and biofuels 4. Environmental comparisons 5. Vehicle cost reductions 6. Policies for sustainable transport 7. Business strategies in transport
use 40 imply Rest of World above 30 Change of Oil Demand (EJ) Other Asia assump- India disruptive 20 China 2010 ), (dis- OECD 10 chapter security 0 -10 of Transport Industry Building Others transport Figure 9.25 | Reference scenario: projected changes in oil demand, 2006 –2030. growing Source: adapted from IEA, 2010a . 6%/year,
FIGURE 6.3. WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF ON-ROAD AUTOMOBILE GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL INTENSITIES IN OECD COUNTRIES, 1970–95 19 United States 18 17 16 Litres of gasoline per 100 kilometres 15 14 13 Australia Canada 12 11 Norway Japan 10 Denmark France 9 Netherlands Italy 8 7 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
������������� ��������������������� Figure 7.4: Light motor vehicles entering the fl eet in 2006 (new and used) 2% Diesel 11+ litres/100km 6% Diesel 9.5–10.99 litres/100km 6% Diesel 8–9.49 litres/100km 2% Diesel 6–7.99 litres/100km 13% Petrol 11+ litres/100km 21% Petrol 9.5–10.99 litres/100km 23% Petrol 8–9.49 litres/100km 23% Petrol 6–7.99 litres/100km 4% Petrol under 6 litres/100km Source: Ministry of Transport
, USA vehicle Japan as Germany account- year Mexico Brazil Malaysia land and China have India factors 0 200 400 600 800 , Vehicle ownership (per 1000 people) Modal Cars Other-4wheelers 2-wheelers cyc- Figure 9.8 | Vehicular penetration in 2006 of several developed and developing and countries (other four-wheelers include busses and trucks). Source: based on MoRTH, use 2009 . that
BLUE Map scenario 200 180 Hydrogen fuel cell 160 Hydrogen hybrid 140 Electricity 120 CNG and LPG 100 Plug-in hybrid diesel 80 Plug-in hybrid gasoline Hybrid diesel 60 Hybrid gasoline 40 Diesel 20 Gasoline 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
figure 5.13: global: final energy consumption for transport under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN 40,000 • ELECTRICITY • BIOFUELS 20,000 • NATURAL GAS • OIL PRODUCTS PJ/a 0 REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
table 11.1: selection of measures and indicators MEASURE REDUCTION OPTION INDICATOR Reduction of Reduction in volume of passenger transport in comparison to the Reference scenario Passenger-km/capita transport demand Reduction in volume of freight transport in comparison to the Reference scenario Ton-km/unit of GDP Modal shift Modal shift from trucks to rail MJ/tonne-km Modal shift from cars to public transport MJ/Passenger-km Energy efficiency Shift to energy efficient passenger car drive trains (battery electric vehicles, hybrid and fuel cell MJ/Passenger-km,| improvements hydrogen cars) and trucks (fuel cell hydrogen, battery electric, catenary or inductive supplied) MJ/Ton-km Shift to powertrain modes that may be fuelled by renewable energy (electric, fuel cell hydrogen) MJ/Passenger-km, MJ/Ton-km Autonomous efficiency improvements of LDV, HDV, trains, airplanes over time MJ/Passenger-km, MJ/Ton-km
Electrification concepts for passenger cars Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) Storage capacity approx. 1 kWh, charging only during driving, fuel reduction max. 20% Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) Storage capacity 5 – 10 kWh, charging from the grid, 30 to 70 km electrical driving range, Institut für Stromrichtertechnik und Elektrische Antriebe full driving range with conventional engine or fuel cell, driving with empty battery possible Electric vehicle (EV) Storage capacity 15 – 40 kWh, charging from the grid, 100 to 300 km electrical driving range 24.11.2008 Threats and opportunities for storage technologies Folie 15 Dirk Uwe Sauer
Automobile Technology “Energy Efficiency Chains” (all efficiency figures indicative) 1. Ordinary gasoline car 2. Natural gas hybrid vehicle transport oil from well 0.97 gas pipeline transport 0.99 oil -> gasoline refining 0.90 gas->compressed storage 0.92 transport to gas station 0.998 comp. storage -> engine 0.99 gas pump into car 0.997 H2 storage H2 -> engine 0.99 combustion in engine 0.18 hybrid ICE/electric engine 0.30 net efficiency 0.16 net efficiency 0.28 4. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle; hydrogen 3. Pure electric car; electricity from coal from natural gas transport coal from mine 0.95 0.99 gas pipeline transport coal -> electricity 0.35 gas reforming to H2 0.80 electric transmission 0.92 compressed storage of H2 0.92 battery charging 0.88 H2 storage -> fuel cell 0.99 battery discharging 0.88 fuel cell 0.45 motor and controller 0.90 motor and controller 0.90 net efficiency 0.21 net efficiency 0.30
Figure 9.30 | Relative amount of energy required for different supply chains (the shaded area corresponds to the energy remaining at the wheel) and well-to-wheel GHG emission for various powertrain/fuel combinations. Source: based on Creutzig et al., 2011a.
D-DPF-HEV D-DPF-HEV D-DPF-HEV D-DPF-HEV Concawe (2007) Concawe (2007) 12,000 Li ion:6kWh D-HEV D-HEV D-HEV D-HEV ZEV:20km Toyota Camry Toyota Camry 10,000 MIT-2035 MIT- MIT-2035 HEV HEV HEV HEV Increased Vehicle Cost ($) (1284kg) (1284kg) 8,000 PHEV-2035 MIT-2008 MIT-2008 (1571kg) (1571kg) IEA-ETP-2050 IEA-ETP-2050 6,000 HEV HEV HEV D-HEV D-HEV D-HEV D-HEV HEV-2035 HEV-2035 HEV-2035 HEV-2035 D-DPF2010 D-DPF2010 D-DPF2010 G-HEV G-HEV G-HEV 4,000 D-2010 D-2010 D-2010 - D-2035 D-2035 D-2035 D-adv D-adv D-adv D D G-adv G-adv D D D D Gturbo2035 Gturbo2035 D D 2,000 G-DI2010 - G-2035 G-2035 G-2035 G-2035 G-2010 G-2010 G-2010 G G G G Gturbo 0 G-DI G-DI - 0 0 20 20 40 80 60 Efficiency increase relative to REF(%) Figure 9.32 | Price increase of vehicle due to effi ciency increase. Data for IEA are shown as ellipses indicating the range of data. (G: gasoline, D: diesel, DI: direct-injec- tion, DPF: particulate fi lter) Source: based on data from EUCAR/CONCAWE/JRC, 2006 ; Bandivadekar, 2008 ; IEA, 2008 .
Biofuels Policies and Other Transport-Sector Policies • Biofuels blending mandates (ethanol blended w/gasoline and biodiesel blended w/diesel) • Policy goals/targets for share of transportation energy from renewables o EU target of 10% of transport energy by 2020, including biofuels & electric vehicles o Individual EU country targets, typical is 5.75% of transport energy by 2010 • Gasoline taxes (or exemptions, i.e., for biofuels) • Biofuels production subsidies • Energy-efficiency standards for vehicles, either by vehicle type or by manufacturer o CAFE (corporate average fuel efficiency) standards in the U.S. • Rebates, tax credits for purchasing hybrid or electric vehicles • Tax preferences for “flex-fuel” vehicles that run on both gasoline and pure (E85) ethanol • Electric vehicle recharging infrastructure development • Public transit development, city-center vehicle restrictions, carpool lanes • High-occupancy vehicle lanes (HOV) open to hybrid or electric vehicles • Tax credits for research and development • Mandates (on auto makers) for future levels/shares of zero- or low-emissions vehicles
TABLE R15. NATIONAL AND STATE/PROVINCIAL BIOFUEL BLEND MANDATES Country Mandate Angola E10 Argentina E5 and B7 Australia Provincial: E4 and B2 in New South Wales; E5 in Queensland Belgium E4 and B4 Brazil E18–25 and B5 Canada National: E5 and B2. Provincial: E5 and B4 in British Columbia; E5 and B2 in Alberta; E7.5 and B2 in Saskatchewan; E8.5 and B2 in Manitoba; E5 in Ontario China E10 in nine provinces Colombia E8 Costa Rica E7 and B20 Ethiopia E5 Guatemala E5 India E5 Indonesia B2.5 and E3 Jamaica E10 Malawi E10 Malaysia B5 Mozambique E10 in 2012–2015; E15 in 2016–2020; E20 from 2021 Paraguay E24 and B1 Peru B2 and E7.8 Philippines E10 and B2 South Africa E10 South Korea B2.5 Sudan E5 Thailand E5 and B5 Turkey E2 United States National: The Renewable Fuels Standard 2 (RFS2) requires 136 billion litres (36 billion gallons) of renew- able fuel to be blended annually with transport fuel by 2022. State: E10 in Missouri and Montana; E9–10 in Florida; E10 in Hawaii; E2 and B2 in Louisiana; B4 by 2012, and B5 by 2013 (all by July 1 of the given year) in Massachusetts; E10 and B5, B10 by 2013, and E20 by 2015 in Minnesota; B5 after 1 July 2012 in New Mexico; E10 and B5 in Oregon; B2 one year after in-state production of biodiesel reaches 40 million gal- lons, B5 one year after 100 million gallons, B10 one year after 200 million gallons, and B20 one year after 400 million gallons in Pennsylvania; E2 and B2, increasing to B5 180 days after in-state feedstock and oil-seed crushing capacity can meet 3% requirement in Washington. Uruguay B5; E5 by 2015 Vietnam E5 Zambia E10 and B5 Zimbabwe E5, to be raised to E10 and E15
Recommend
More recommend
