Chuluun Togtokh, Ph.D. National University of Mongolia Introduction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

chuluun togtokh ph d national university of mongolia
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Chuluun Togtokh, Ph.D. National University of Mongolia Introduction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Symposium on From Post-Disaster Reconstruction To the Creation of Resilient Societies , December 16 17, 2011, Keio University, Mita Campus Chuluun Togtokh, Ph.D. National University of Mongolia Introduction Vulnerability of


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Chuluun Togtokh, Ph.D. National University of Mongolia

Symposium on ” From Post-Disaster Reconstruction To the Creation of Resilient Societies “, December 16 – 17, 2011, Keio University, Mita Campus

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 Introduction  Vulnerability of pastoral social-ecological systems  Ecoregion-based adaptation

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Mongolia as an open complex system

Economic Social Culture Environmental Political Mongolia is viewed as a complex system, consisted of interconnected political, economic, social, ecological and cultural subsystems as five main

  • rgans of the organism,

interconnected through father-son and friend-enemy connections (as in folk medicine). For Mongolia’s health it is essential to have healthy subsystems. Mongolia made transition to democracy and market economy 2 decades ago, becoming an open system to world policy, markets, western and other cultures, religion, knowledge , technology and global environmental impacts.

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  • L. Natsagdorj, 2008
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  • T. Chuluun,
  • M. Altanbagana
  • S. Davaanyam

B.Tserenchunt

Vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems

Community National River basin

Dryland Sustainability Institute

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Climate change factor Human factor Pasture use Ecological Vulnerability Drought+zud Drought Vulnerability of social- ecological system Socio-Economic Vulnerability

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1970-1990 1991-2008

Long-term ecological vulnerability dynamics in Mongolia

0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

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Vulnerability assessment of social- ecological systems at aimag level

N E W S

LEGEND < 0.25 0.26 - 0.35 0.36 - 0.45 0.46 - 0.55 0.56 < Bayan- Ulgii Uvs Hovd Zavhan Govi-Altai

Baynahong

  • r

Selenge Huvsgul Bulgan Arhangai

Uvurhangai

Tuv Dundgovi Umnugovi Dornogovi Suhbaatar Hentii Dornod

No data

Social-ecological vulnerability = ecological vulnerability + poverty indexes (UNDP)

Chuluun, T. 2011. Land degradation and desertification in Mongolia. Background paper for the Mongolia Human Development Report 2011.

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“W estern” m odels

Farms/ ranches Rich herders (~ 10% ) “Hot ails”

W in-W in

Strengthening of traditional pastoral networks with modern technology

Tragedy of Com m ons

Weak cooperation Landscape fragmentation Land degradation Poverty trap (~ 40% )

Traditional System

Strong cooperation Cultural landscape use Ecosystem state is good Subsistence (~ 50% )

Cooperation (CBNRM) Use of cultural landscape/State of ecosystem services

Weak/ Low Strong/ Good

Human Well-being

Poor Rich

Loss of adaptive capacity to climate variability Sustainable transformation

with CIT & renewable energy

ACCCA project

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Social Resilience

(Equity, Institution, Leadership, Cooperation & Trust)

Ecological Resilience

(Ecosystem Services & Biodiversity)

Collapse

Adaptation

(Innovation, Science & Technology)

Win-Win

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 Mongolia is becoming more vulnerable to climate

change due to its impacts on water and forage resources, and also transitional economy;

 Many “big” projects were often fragmented, not

enhancing both social and ecological resilience;

 Eco-region based adaptation: Adaptation policy

must be diverse in different ecological zones;

  • Transformation opportunity of social-ecological

systems, using adaptation science and technologies in Mongolia.

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The Mongolian Gobi

The world fastest growing economy The highest social-ecological vulnerability in Mongola Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System World Natural and Cultural Heritage System

Innovation in technology (RE, CIT etc.) Institution & Policy

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Thank you!

Arigatou Gozaimashita!

Bayarlalaa!