Chinas Quest for Protein Rabobank Matthijs Mondria Rabobank Food - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Chinas Quest for Protein Rabobank Matthijs Mondria Rabobank Food - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 29, 2023 277 likes •400 views

Chinas Quest for Protein Rabobank Matthijs Mondria Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Dirk Jan Kennes and Karen Heuvelmans 19 April 2016 The F&A sector must prepare for the new normal of prices 700 600 500

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Rabobank — Matthijs Mondria

Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Dirk Jan Kennes and Karen Heuvelmans 19 April 2016

China’s Quest for Protein

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The F&A sector must prepare for the ‘new normal’ of prices

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USD/tonne CBOT Wheat CBOT Soybeans CBOT Corn

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Yet, vegetable protein supply and demand will keep on growing

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 million tonnes (protein) 10m tonnes (energy) Protein crops (soybean, sunflower, rapeseed) Energy crops (corn, wheat, barley, oats, sorghum, rye, mixed grains)

Global production of protein crops = twice the growth of energy crops

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Three key drivers of shift to a larger protein share in feed

Proteins Energy Modernisation

  • f farming

Genetics Type of meat we eat

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Chinese soybean imports are forecast at a record 81.5m tonnes in 2015/16

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… and remain a key price driver

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 20 40 60 80 100 120 million tonnes Imports Domestic Consumption Stocks-to-use (RHS)

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Major destination: China’s pork appetite

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Going Dutch

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Professionalising Chinese agriculture on a small land base How can China grow its agriculture? China has over 250m farmers

  • n a shrinking arable land base,

capping farm size Average farm size:

US

182 ha

Brazil

73 ha

Netherlands

28 ha

China

0.7 ha By taking a similar approach as the Netherlands did in the late 1940s That means:

  • Smallholders who

cooperate in family farms, invest in livestock

  • Grow high-value

crops like:

  • Import lower-

value products

Potatoes Onions Carrots Soy

  • Feed grain
  • Grain by-products
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Two scenarios to satisfy China’s hunger for pork

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Breakthrough technologies in crop farming Improved practices in livestock farming

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The livestock farming scenario is likely to be most successful

57m tonnes

  • f pork

meat 182m tonnes

  • f feed

236m With Dutch standards, China could produce the same amount of pork with 54m tonnes less feed … meeting global pork demand until 2025

Feed-to-meat ratio

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The livestock farming scenario is likely to be most successful

70m tonnes

  • f pork

meat 182m tonnes

  • f feed

236m With Dutch standards, China could produce the same amount of pork with 54m tonnes less feed

  • r produce an additional 13m

tonnes of pork … meeting global pork demand until 2025

Feed-to-meat ratio

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Improvements in Chinese pork farming unlock a USD 30bn market

USD 30bn market value to be created

Feed Housing

Veterinary & laboratory Genetics & AI services Rendering

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Rabobank’s Banking for Food strategy

Relevance Building blocks Rabobank’s contribution

Economically attractive Socially relevant Financing Knowledge Networks

Increase food availability Improve access to food Stimulate balanced nutrition Enhance stability