Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturers Association 708, 7th - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturers’ Association

708, 7th Floor, Kailash Building, 26, Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi – 110001, INDIA Phone: 91-11-43598337, Fax: 91-11-43598337 Email: cpmai@airtelmail.in Website: www.cpmaindia.com

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Review : Fibre Intermediate Sector

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 3

MEG and ACN clocked double digit growth, while PTA and Caprolactam witnessed a healthy growth in 2017-18

5958 6481 6776 7388 7905 8612 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 KT

Fibre Intermediate grew at 9% in 2017-18

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 4

Caprolactam demand grew at a modest rate of 4.3% in 2017-18

101 131 138 144

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A

Caprolactam

152 160 140 157

100 125 150 175 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A

Acrylonitrile KT

Acrylonitrile demand grew at a robust 12% in 2017-18

KT

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 5

While PTA grew at 8% in the same period

KT

MEG demand grew at a staggering rate of 12% in 2017-18

1882 1953 2148 2399

1500 1800 2100 2400 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A

MEG

4641 5144 5479 5912

3000 4000 5000 6000 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A

PTA KT

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 6

Fibre intermediate production was dominated by PTA & MEG, 99% share in total production in 2017-18

A C N 0% [CATEG ORY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] PTA 78% MEG 21% A C N 2% [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] PTA 68% MEG 28% Fibre Intermediate Production 7212 KT Fibre intermediate Demand 8612 KT

Fibre intermediate Demand supply : 2017-18

Figs in %

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 7

70 70 70 70 6330 6475 6510 7110 1715 2215 2215 2215 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG KT

Fibre Intermediate Total Capacity @8115 KT: 2017-18

PTA and MEG capacity addition to take place over next two fiscal years

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Outlook : Fibre Intermediate Sector

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 9

PTA expected to witness fastest growth in next three years

6776 7388 7905 8612 8961 9350 9681 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E KT

Fibre Intermediates witnessed a 9% growth in ‘18

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 10

Fibre intermediate production forecasted to be dominated by PTA & MEG; while demand both @49% share in total demand

A C N 0% [CATEG ORY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] PTA 75% MEG 24% A C N 1% [CATEGO RY NAME] [PERCEN TAGE] PTA 49% MEG 49% Fibre Intermediate Production 8709 KT Fibre intermediate Demand 13617 KT

Fibre intermediate Demand supply : 2020-21

Figs in %

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 11

Fibre intermediate demand to grow in the range of 4% over next three years

Demand Outlook for next three years

Figures in % 12,1% 5,1% 7,3% 4,5% 4,3% 6,9% 0,6% 0,0% 7,9% 3,8% 5,1% 2,9% 11,7% 4,3% 2,5% 5,3% 2017-18 A 2018-19 A 2019-20 A 2020-21 A Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 12

Acrylonitrile demand is being met by imports now as production stopped

144 154 155 155

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E

Caprolactam

157 165 177 185

100 125 150 175 200 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E

Acrylonitrile KT

ACN and Caprolactam expected to grow by 5.6% and 2.5% respectively in next three years

KT

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 13

In 2018-19 PTA expected to witness growth at 3.8% and MEG at 4.3%

KT

Demand for PTA to grow at ~3.9% and MEG ~4.1% over three years

2399 2503 2565 2702

1500 1800 2100 2400 2700 3000 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E

MEG

5912 6139 6453 6639

3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E

PTA KT

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 14

By 2020-21 total capacity to touch 9395 KT

8115 8760 8795 9395 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E KT

Fibre Intermediate Capacity Addition in next three fiscals

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 15

70 70 70 70 6330 6475 6510 7110 1715 2215 2215 2215 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG KT

PTA capacity to touch 7110 KT by 2020-21

Capacity addition by RIL and JBF in case of PTA and capacity addition planned by RIL in case of MEG over next fiscals

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India. 16

Trade Deficit for PTA expected to reduce significantly by 2020-21 to 150 KT with PTA exports rising

• 157
• 165
• 177
• 185
• 58
• 65
• 65
• 65
• 308
• 303
• 410
• 150
• 927
• 418
• 483
• 572

2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG KT

Fibre Intermediates trade deficit by 2020-21

Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2017, CPMA, India. 17

Exportable surplus for PTA to rise by 2018-19

%

Import dependency to reduce significantly for PTA by 2018-19

100% 100% 100% 100% 40% 42% 42% 42% 9% 8% 9% 7% 44% 26% 26% 27% 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E

Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG