Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturers’ Association 708, 7th Floor, Kailash Building, 26, Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi – 110001, INDIA Phone: 91-11-43598337, Fax: 91-11-43598337 Email: cpmai@airtelmail.in Website: www.cpmaindia.com
Review : Fibre Intermediate Sector 2
Fibre Intermediate grew at 9% in 2017-18 9000 KT 8612 7905 8000 7388 7000 6776 6481 5958 6000 5000 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 MEG and ACN clocked double digit growth, while PTA and Caprolactam witnessed a healthy growth in 2017-18 3 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Acrylonitrile demand grew at a robust 12% in 2017-18 160 175 KT KT Caprolactam Acrylonitrile 150 144 160 157 138 140 152 131 150 130 140 120 110 125 101 100 90 80 100 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A Caprolactam demand grew at a modest rate of 4.3% in 2017-18 4 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
MEG demand grew at a staggering rate of 12% in 2017-18 5912 2399 6000 2400 KT KT PTA MEG 5479 2148 5144 5000 2100 4641 1953 1882 4000 1800 3000 1500 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A While PTA grew at 8% in the same period 5 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Fibre intermediate Demand supply : 2017-18 Figs in % MEG PTA MEG 21% 68% PTA 28% 78% A C N [CATEG [CATEGO 0% ORY RY A C N NAME] NAME] 2% [PERCEN [PERCEN TAGE] TAGE] Fibre Intermediate Production Fibre intermediate Demand 7212 KT 8612 KT Fibre intermediate production was dominated by PTA & MEG, 99% share in total production in 2017-18 6 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Fibre Intermediate Total Capacity @8115 KT: 2017-18 7110 Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG 6510 6475 6330 KT 2215 2215 2215 1715 70 70 70 70 0 0 0 0 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E PTA and MEG capacity addition to take place over next two fiscal years 7 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Outlook : Fibre Intermediate Sector 8
Fibre Intermediates witnessed a 9% growth in ‘18 10000 KT 9681 9350 8961 9000 8612 7905 8000 7388 7000 6776 6000 2014-15 A 2015-16 A 2016-17 A 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E PTA expected to witness fastest growth in next three years 9 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Fibre intermediate Demand supply : 2020-21 Figs in % MEG MEG 49% 24% PTA PTA 49% 75% A C N [CATEG [CATEGO 0% ORY RY A C N NAME] NAME] 1% [PERCEN [PERCEN TAGE] TAGE] Fibre Intermediate Production Fibre intermediate Demand 8709 KT 13617 KT Fibre intermediate production forecasted to be dominated by PTA & MEG; while demand both @49% share in total demand 10 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Demand Outlook for next three years Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG Figures in % 12,1% 11,7% 7,9% 7,3% 6,9% 5,3% 5,1% 5,1% 4,5% 4,3% 4,3% 3,8% 2,9% 2,5% 0,6% 0,0% 2017-18 A 2018-19 A 2019-20 A 2020-21 A Fibre intermediate demand to grow in the range of 4% over next three years 11 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
ACN and Caprolactam expected to grow by 5.6% and 2.5% respectively in next three years Caprolactam 160 200 KT KT Acrylonitrile 155 155 154 185 150 144 177 175 140 165 157 130 150 120 110 125 100 90 100 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E Acrylonitrile demand is being met by imports now as production stopped 12 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Demand for PTA to grow at ~3.9% and MEG ~4.1% over three years 3000 7000 KT KT PTA MEG 6639 6453 2702 6139 2700 5912 2565 6000 2503 2399 2400 5000 2100 4000 1800 1500 3000 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E In 2018-19 PTA expected to witness growth at 3.8% and MEG at 4.3% 13 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Fibre Intermediate Capacity Addition in next three fiscals 9395 9500 KT 9000 8795 8760 8500 8115 8000 7500 7000 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E By 2020-21 total capacity to touch 9395 KT 14 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
PTA capacity to touch 7110 KT by 2020-21 Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG 7110 6510 6475 6330 KT 2215 2215 2215 1715 70 70 70 70 0 0 0 0 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E Capacity addition by RIL and JBF in case of PTA and capacity addition planned by RIL in case of MEG over next fiscals 15 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Fibre Intermediates trade deficit by 2020-21 Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG KT -65 -65 -58 -65 -150 -157 -165 -177 -185 -303 -308 -418 -410 -483 -572 -927 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E Trade Deficit for PTA expected to reduce significantly by 2020-21 to 150 KT with PTA exports rising 16 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2019, CPMA, India.
Import dependency to reduce significantly for PTA by 2018-19 Acrylonitrile Caprolactum PTA MEG 100% 100% 100% 100% % 42% 44% 42% 42% 40% 27% 26% 26% 9% 9% 8% 7% 2017-18 A 2018-19 E 2019-20 E 2020-21 E Exportable surplus for PTA to rise by 2018-19 17 Fibre Intermediate - Review & Future Prospects – APIC 2017, CPMA, India.
Recommend
More recommend
