Long term prospects for petrochemicals and its feedstocks Session : - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Long term prospects for petrochemicals and its feedstocks

Session : Future of special refined products

Ph de Smedt, Manager, Petrochemicals Europe

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Petrochemicals Europe – Who we are

= the association of petrochemical producers in Europe

• An industry programme of Cefic
• European producers of base chemicals and derivatives
• base chemicals: 20 companies operating ~ 50 steam crackers in EU28
• derivatives ranging from acetyls, methanol, amines, etc…. to solvents
• ~ 40 units integrated with refineries
• 20% of worldwide ethylene capacity

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What’s Base Chemicals

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Source: Petrochemicals Europe

Europe – home to petrochemical excellence

A broad variety of products, often essential for sustainable development, are made from C2=,C3=, C4==, BTX

source: Essenscia; Litsearch

ILLUSTRATIVE Ethylene (C2=) Plastic bottles Anti-freeze Propylene (C3=) Insulation Medical materials /diagnosis Coatings Cosmetics Car parts Butadiene (C4==) BTX Tires

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Asia chemicals production outpaces

• ther regions

World chemicals sales: geographic breakdown

Source: Cefic Chemdata International 2016 * Rest of Europe covers Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine ** North American Free Trade Agreement *** Asia excluding China, India, Japan and South Korea

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Petrochemicals and polymers account for about half of EU chemicals sales

Source: Cefic Chemdata International 2016

EU chemical industry sales by sectoral breakdown

Global growth % expected to slow due to weaker economic

• utlook

2016 to 2020 annual volume growth similar to 2010-2015 and greater than the 2000s Growth broadens regionally, but China remains an important driver

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Source IHS Estimated global growth of basic chemicals and plastics

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Visible New Steam Cracker Projects

(source: Linde evaluation, December 2016).

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= number of projects by area

5 10 4 1

Ethylene production growth areas noticed are Russia, Middle East incl. Iran and still North Amerika. No new steam cracker projects expected in Europe In the next years

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New pathways to basic petrochemicals

syngas Methanol DME Fischer-Tropsch hydrocarbons LPG Naphtha Ethylene Propylene Butadiene BTX Diesel Lubes Ethylene Propylene Propylene Gasoline Or BTX Gasoline Ethylene Natural gas Coal Petcoke Residu biomass Hydrous bioethanol Natural oils

MTO MTP MTG

Steamcracking Steamcracking Dehydration Reforming: SMR/ATR Reforming: gasification

Oxygen removal

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World propylene supply trends

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• Steam cracking capacity

predominantly added from Ethane rather than Naphtha (lower Propylene yield):

• Middle East.
• US shale gas.
• Supplies from refineries remaining

stable, or slow growth:

• Fuel efficiency.
• Biofuels.
• Revamps costs.

%: SC / FCC / O.P. 2011 55 / 35 / 10 2025 50 / 30 / 20 103 KTa

PH DE SMEDT : OUTLOOK FOR PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR

Propylene mostly produced by:

• Steam cracking (~55%),
• Fluid catalytic cracking (~35%).
• On-Purpose (~10%)

On-purpose propylene sources?

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Major process technology routes:

• 1. PDH – Dehydrogenation
• 2. OCT – Metathesis
• 3. HS FCC – High Severity FCC
• 4. MTO – Methanol to Olefins
• 5. OCP – Olefin Cracking

2009 2011

PH DE SMEDT : OUTLOOK FOR PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR

Other developments

• Several oil majors have or are developing steam cracking processes

directly from crude oil. There is one running plant (1 Mton of C2=)

• perating since 2014. Essentially a preflash of crude oil between

convection and radiant section of cracker furnaces , send the light fraction to a cracker and the heavy fraction for further treatment to a nearby refinery.

• Oxidative coupling of methane. Still in research phase. Proven yields

too low for the moment.

• Circular economy. Recycling of plastics. This will reduce demand for

virgin plastics, but for the first 10-20 years will not fundamentally change the increasing trend for olefins. (Quality loss during recycling limits applicability of recycled material).

• Circular economy is one of the priorities of Petrochemicals Europe.

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Where and what feedstock for C2=

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Units : thousands of tons

IEA view on global HVC market

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Ethanol to ethylene INDCHEDEHYBIO Methanol to olefins INDCHEMTOOMET Propane dehydrogenation INDCHEPRDHPRO Naphtha catalytic cracking INDCHECTCKNAP Propane steam cracking INDCHESTCKPRO Gas oil steam cracking INDCHESTCKGSO LPG steam cracking INDCHESTCKLPG Naphtha steam cracking INDCHESTCKNAP Ethane steam cracking INDCHESTCKETH HVC demanded CCS (Mt CO2 captured)

• IEA carries out energy technology perspective studies to identify

ways to reduce GHG emissions.

• The graph below shows their scenario for HVC growth under 2

degree temperature increase scenario. (HVC = ethylene, propylene, butadiene,BTX).

• Naphtha cracking remains dominant feedstock (growing role of

catalytic cracking seen by IEA).

Focus on Europe

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Ethylene Cash Cost of Regional Steam Crackers (US$/ton C2)

European industry’s major issue

Source: ICIS Consulting

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