India Chem 2018: Competitive Feed stocks and Integration in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

India Chem 2018: Competitive Feed stocks and Integration in Petrochemical Crackers

5th Oct 2018

Forward Looking Statement

This presentation contains forward-looking statements which may be identified by their use of words like “plans,” “expects,” “will,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “intends,” “projects,” “estimates” or

• ther words of similar meaning. All statements that address expectations or projections about the

future, including, but not limited to, statements about the strategy for growth, product development, market position, expenditures, and financial results, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations of future events. The companies referred to in this presentation cannot guarantee that these assumptions and expectations are accurate or will be realised. The actual results, performance or achievements, could thus differ materially from those projected in any such forward-looking statements. These companies assume no responsibility to publicly amend, modify or revise any forward looking statements, on the basis of any subsequent developments, information or events, or otherwise.

2

3

R&M Largest single refinery site with robust configuration Petchem Integrated petrochemicals with presence in fastest growing markets E&P Developing deep water resources in Oil & Gas Retail Growing presence in retail & supply chain Jio Fastest growing mobile data network (4G) Media Wide mass reach with media and entertainment US$ 48.4 Billion Annual Revenue US$ 7.0 Billion Cash Profit US$ 5.2 Billion Net Profit

2nd Global Rankings

PX PTA Polyester PP MEG

4th 2nd 5th 8th

Reliance at a glance

FY 2017-18 Annual Report

Agenda

• 1. Petrochemical Cracker Feed Options
• 2. Cracker Feedstock across globe
• 3. Feedstock price trends
• 4. Feed Economics
• 5. Reliance’s Ethane Project

4

Cracker Feedstock - Options

5

Gas Cracker feed

• Ethane ( C2H6)
• Propane ( C3H8)
• Butane ( C4H10 – Normal/iso Butane)
• Refinery Off Gas

Liquid Cracker feed

• Condensates
• Paraffinic Naphtha (Paraffin content > 65 %)
• Can be mixed with other naphtha like Aromatic / High Paraffinic Naphtha
• Gas Oil : Diesel can be cracked to produce Olefins
• Heavier hydrocarbons

Typical yields from different feeds

6

Feedstock Type Ethylene Propylene Crude C4's Pygas Hydrogen Fuel Gas Fuel Oil TOTAL

Ethane 80.4% 1.7% 2.8% 2.5% 6.2% 6.2% 0.3% 100.0% Propane 42.0% 17.0% 4.0% 7.0% 2.0% 27.0% 1.0% 100.0% N-Butane 40.0% 17.0% 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 22.0% 2.0% 100.0% LT Naphtha 31.0% 16.0% 9.0% 19.0% 2.0% 19.0% 4.0% 100.0% Gasoil 21.0% 15.0% 9.0% 19.0% 1.0% 10.0% 25.0% 100.0%

7

Cracker Feedstocks by regions

• 10

20 30 40 50 2012 2017 2022

Americas Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gas Oil MTO/CTO

• 10

20 30 2012 2017 2022

Europe

• 10

20 30 2012 2017 2022

ME / Africa

• 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 2012 2017 2022

Asia

Mn MT Ethylene

Source: IHS Markit

Feedstock extractability & availability affects Cracking feed mix

8

Feedstock changes

Ethane 38%

Propane 9% Butane 5%

Naphtha 42%

Gas Oil 3% Methanol to Olefins 1% Methanol to Propylene 0.00% Coal to Olefins 1% Others 1%

Source: IHS Markit

2017 Ethylene Production = 153 Mn MT/yr 57 MMTPA 64 MMTPA

47% in 2012 35% in 2012 Ethane 40%

Propane 8% Butane 5%

Naphtha 39%

Gas Oil 3% Methanol to Olefins 1% Methanol to Propylene 0.03% Coal to Olefins 2% Others 2%

Source: IHS Markit

2022 Ethylene Forecast = 186 Mn MT/yr 74 MMTPA 71 MMTPA

Ethane 46% Propane 7% Butane 1% Naphtha 44% Other 2%

Source: IHS Markit

Ethane 51% Propane 4% Butane 1% Naphtha 43% Other 1%

9

Feedstock changes- India

2022 Ethylene Forecast = 7.7 Mn MT/yr 2017 Ethylene Production = 5.9 Mn MT/yr

Source: IHS Markit

Additional Naphtha based capacity required to absorb national surplus. Propane (LPG) share expected to reduce. Additional Ethane capacity expected given its competitiveness at higher crude levels

US Cracker Startup (First wave)

Sr No Plant Feed Location Capacity (KTA) Startup 1 Oxychem /Mexichem JV Ethane Ingleside 550 Mar-17 2 Dow Ethane Freeport 1,500* Sep-17 3 Chevron Phillips Ethane Cedar Bayou 1,500 Mar-18 4 ExxonMobil Ethane Baytown 1,500 July- 18 5 Indorama Ventures PCL Ethane Lake Charles 420 Q4 2018 6 FPC USA (Formosa) Ethane Point Comfort 1,252 Q4 18/Q1 19 7 Shin Etsu Ethane Plaquemine 500 Q4 18/Q1 19 8 SASOL Ethane Lake Charles, LA 1550 Q4 18/Q1 19

10

Dow has started construction to expand new cracker to 2000 KTA

Source: ICIS

US Cracker Startup (Second wave)

Sr No Plant Feed Location Capacity (KTA) Startup 1 Lotte-Westlake Ethane Lake Charles, Louisiana 1000 H2 2019 2 Bayport Polymers (Total- Borealis-Nova JV) Ethane Port Arthur 1000 H2 2020

3

Shell Ethane Monaca 1500 H2 2021 4 PTTGC* Ethane Belmont, OH 1000 2022+ 5 Formosa* Ethane Louisiana 1200 2022+

11 Source: ICIS, IHS * Investment decision/approvals pending

Crackers in Other Regions

12 Source: IHS

Company Region Country City Process Capacity Startup Nova Chemical North America Canada Sarnia EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 408 2021 Fujian Gu Lei Petro Northeast Asia China Zhangzhou EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 800 2022 Hengli Petrochemical Northeast Asia China Dalian EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 1500 2021 Huatai Shengfu Northeast Asia China Ningbo EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 600 2021 Liaoning Bora PC Northeast Asia China Liaoning EPB/Naphtha 800 2020 Shandong Yuhuang Northeast Asia China Dongming EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 400 2021 Shouguang Luqing PC Northeast Asia China Shouguang EPB/Naphtha 750 2022 Sinochem Quanzhou Northeast Asia China Quanzhou EPB/Naphtha 1000 2021 Sinopec Hainan R&C Northeast Asia China Hainan Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 1000 2024 Sinopec-KPC PC JV Northeast Asia China Zhanjiang EPB/Naphtha 800 2021 SP Chemicals Northeast Asia China Taixing Ethane/Propane 650 2020 Wanhua Chemical Northeast Asia China Yantai EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 1000 2021 Zhejiang PC Northeast Asia China Zhoushan EPB/Naphtha 1400 2020 HPCL Mittal Energy Indian Subcontinent India Bhatinda Naphtha 1200 2022 Gachsaran PC Middle East Iran Gachsaran Ethane 1000 2023 Ilam PC Middle East Iran Ilam EPB/Naphtha 458 2018 GS Caltex Northeast Asia Korea (South) Yeosu EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 700 2022 Hyundai Chemical Northeast Asia Korea (South) Daesan EPB/Naphtha/Gas Oil/Residues 750 2022 LG Chem Northeast Asia Korea (South) Yeosu Naphtha 800 2022 PRPC RC (Petronas Rapid) Southeast Asia Malaysia Pengerang EPB/Naphtha 1260 2019 ORPIC Middle East Oman Sohar EPB/Naphtha 880 2021 KPI CIS & Baltic States Other CIS & Baltic States Karabatan Ethane 800 2023 Turkmengas CIS & Baltic States Other CIS & Baltic States Kiyanly EPB (Ethane,Propane,Butane) 400 2018 NKNK CIS & Baltic States Russia Nizhnekamsk Naphtha 600 2021 Novy Urengoy GCC CIS & Baltic States Russia Novy Urengoy Ethane 420 2020 ZapSibNeftekhim CIS & Baltic States Russia Tobolsk EPB/Naphtha 1500 2021 PTTGC Southeast Asia Thailand Map Ta Phut Naphtha 500 2021 Nova/SABIC North America United States Geismar Ethane/Propane 442 2018 Long Son PC Co. Southeast Asia Viet Nam Ba Ria-Vung Tau EPB/Naphtha 1000 2023

* Some projects, especially in China may be delayed/ scrapped

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18

Naphtha MOP-S ($/MT) Propane CP ($/MT) US Ethane- Mt Belvieu ($/MT Converted) Crude Brent ($/bbl)

Cracker Feedstock Prices

13

$ / MT Crude ($/bbl)

Feedstock price variability - impacts Cracker Margins Cost Control through Feed flexibility New Chemistries – MTO/CTO, PDH

Asia Cracker Margins

14 200 400 600 800 1000

Integrated Ethane Cracker Integrated Propane Cracker Integrated Naphtha Cracker

High Butadiene co-product credit Seasonal Propane Winter Spike US Ethane Export Terminal Start-up Margins Squeezed as feed cost rises Gap Between Ethane & Naphtha/LPG large at higher crude levels

SEA Ethylene Margins ($ / MT)

Fluctuations in global crude prices lead to volatility in Naphtha & Propane feedstock prices. US Ethane prices firm up when start of new cracker adds to demand/ supply constraints prevail in US NGL market

Ethylene Cash Cost curve

15

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 Apr-13 Aug-15 May-18

$/MT Million MT

Brent Crude $/bbl 102 47 77

Middle East Gas Crackers US Gas Crackers Asia & European Naphtha Crackers JKT & Smaller European Naphtha Crackers CTO & MTO

Source: RIL Internal Analysis

1000 500 @ 100 $/bbl Crude @ 50 $/bbl Crude

Reliance’s Ethane Project

Only company to move Ethane from US to Asia

16

Reliance’s Ethane Project

17

Ethane Terminal at US Gulf Coast GCPTCL Jetty at Dahej DMD Ethane Tank (90KT) Dahej Nagothane Pipeline (DNEPL) – 480 Km JMD HMD Cracker NMD Cracker DMD Cracker Ethane VLEC (46 KT)

Thank you

18