Chaos Machine: AP APT28 T28 FA FANCY NCY BEA BEAR R Co - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 29, 2024 200 likes •409 views

Chaos Machine: AP APT28 T28 FA FANCY NCY BEA BEAR R Co Comp mplex lex Jason Kichen Alex Orleans Disclaimers We are here speaking for/on behalf of no one but ourselves, and in no way do either of us represent the United States

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Chaos Machine:

AP APT28 T28 FA FANCY NCY BEA BEAR R Co Comp mplex lex

Jason Kichen Alex Orleans

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Disclaimers

▪ We are here speaking for/on behalf of no one but ourselves, and in no way do either of us represent the United States Government. ▪ Our analyses are based entirely on assessments of open source reporting.

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Who We Are

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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What We’re Here to Talk About

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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How We’re Going to Do That

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Why Should You Care

Understand dynamics in state- nexus op cycle Greater value from attribution Dividends for blue and red teams

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Idea of Actors Existing on a Clear Spectrum

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

Highly Chaotic Highly Orderly

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Reality is Messy, Not Pretty

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

Highly Chaotic Highly Orderly

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Implications of a Common (Mis)conception

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

The chaotic nature of reality affects a threat actor at all levels

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Collision of Chaos and State-nexus Ops

Strategic Culture

Org. Cultures/

Competition Leadership Demands Domestic Politics

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Our Case Study: GRU Units 26165 & 74455

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Strategic Culture

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

Example: Clandestine Mentality

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Organizational Cultures and Competition

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

Example: Wartime Mindset

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Leadership Demands

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

Example: Praetorianism

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Domestic Politics

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

Example: National pride/prestige

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Chaos as Manifest in Operational Dynamics

▪ “Hang-on-tight” thinking

– In planning/timing – In execution – In post-op and/or follow-on activity – In the aftermath of compromise

▪ Adversary Optionality ▪ Operational Decisions

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Apparent Chaotic Dynamics in Revealed Activity

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Why All This Matters

▪ Holistic understanding of malicious activity’s drivers can deepen comprehension of an attribution’s implications ▪ Can support smarter defense across multiple lines of effort ▪ Can enhance fidelity of adversary emulation activities

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Where Do We Go From Here?

▪ Influence of a government’s ideology ▪ Influence of pseudo- and non- governmental interests ▪ Further leveraging public research resources to analyze internal dynamics of relevant state entities

@jckichen // @wylienewmark

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Jason Kichen (@jckichen) Alex Orleans (@wylienewmark)