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The Chilean NES: National Electricity System
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Changes and Trends in Chilean Power Market Prepared for: April 3 rd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Changes and Trends in Chilean Power Market Prepared for: April 3 rd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Changes and Trends in Chilean Power Market Prepared for: April 3 rd 2019 The Chilean NES: National Electricity System 2 Rapid Integration of Renewable Energy 20% daily generation can come from wind and solar less than 10 countries
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Rapid Integration of Renewable Energy
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✓ 20% daily generation can come from wind and solar – less than 10 countries have exceeded ✓ Bloomberg ranked Chile as the #1 place to invest in renewable energy out of 103 developing countries ✓ Important PPA opportunities with mid and large consumers between 2021 and 2028 ✓ Electricity system is constrained & very isolated
In the north of Chile up to 40% generation is now coming from wind and solar. Coal Wind Solar Gas
Hou Hour of
- f Day
CO2 intensity
North of Chile - Nov 2018
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Decarbonization Policy
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- Chile currently has a carbon tax set to 5 $USD per ton
- f CO2 emitted imposed on generation facilities with a
capacity of 50 or more MWt
- In the National Determined Contributions (NDC)
published by Chile in 2015, Chile committed to reduce it’s CO2 emissions per GDP unit to 30% below the 2007 levels by 2030.
- In third BUR states, a shadow prices of carbon between
20 and 43 $USD per ton of CO2 are presented as sufficient to meet Chile’s current greenhouse emission goals.
- Decarbonization working group under way
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Coal retirements: international benchmark
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Countries committed not to generate with coal after a certain date. Canadá: CO2 emission standard
42 GW
27 GW
40 GW
4.8 GW 4.3 GW Countries with coal-intensive energy mix
Average age of coal units years Coal-based power generation (as % of total generation in 2016 or 2017)
Source: Inodú. (2018). Estudio de variables ambientales y sociales que deben abordarse para el cierre o reconversión programada y gradual de generación eléctrica a carbón. Prepared for the Ministry of Energy of Chile.
Netherlands: In 2015, German companies built 2 plants with 2.6 GW capacity. 2030 was defined as the last year coal can be used for power generation.
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Hydrological conditions remain below average
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GWh GWh
Hydrological Year Hydrological Year
Scarcity
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Changing Flexibility Policy
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The 2018-2022 energy policy roadmap establishes the need to: 1. Make regulatory changes which will allow the Chilean electricity system to meet its future flexibility requirements and continue to incentivize the integration of renewable energy. 2. Make changes to capacity payments regulation in order to recognize the contribution of new technologies, such renewable energy generation.
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Trends: Changes in Net Load Dynamics
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Rise of the Middle Market
The need for intermediate generation capacity doubles or triples. Rise of a market segment where parameters other than variable costs are key.
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Two types of flexibility needs: balancing & variability
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of day
Balancing
Variability
Net Load
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Increased Ramp Requirements and Regionalization
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Trends: Changes in Net Load Dynamics
Current peak demand metering period
Integration of VRE sources increases capacity at peak load hours and net load ramps. Peak net load hours occur earlier in the day and last longer with VRE integration.
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3-hour ramp growth to 5500 MW by 2026
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A 7000 MW 3 hour ramp in 2035 estimated in ISO Study Up to 5500 MW 3 hour ramp in 2026
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Deviations from Forecasted Net Load
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Trends: Deviations in Real-Time Operations from Day-Ahead Plans Need for balancing services and fast startup units to absorb deviations.
But, greater VRE capacity does not necessarily translate into higher forecast errors:
Depends on the location of new investments. Depends on the incentives for accurate forecasting.
2017
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