Greece after the MOU Reforms, challenges and opportunities - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

greece after the mou reforms challenges and opportunities
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Greece after the MOU Reforms, challenges and opportunities - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Greece after the MOU Reforms, challenges and opportunities 03/12/2018 Reforms The progress so far 2009 2017 Fiscal position, % of GDP -15,1% +0,77% Balance of payments position, % of GDP -9,8% -1,1% Real unit labour costs, 1999=100


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SLIDE 1

Greece after the MOU Reforms, challenges and

  • pportunities

03/12/2018

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SLIDE 2

Reforms – The progress so far

European Commission AMECO database, *Doing Business Rank: Best = “1”, Schneider 2018 for shadow economy.

2009 2017

Fiscal position, % of GDP

  • 15,1%

+0,77% Balance of payments position, % of GDP

  • 9,8%
  • 1,1%

Real unit labour costs, 1999=100 110 99 Shadow economy, % of total 25% 21,5% Trading Across Borders* 70 31 Dealing with Construction Permits* 45 39 Starting a Business* 133 44

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Investment picks up, but there is a large investment gap

Deloitte computations for SEV

Investment gap, % of GDP

+ €100 billion 7.5 pp + €50 billion 4 pp

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SLIDE 4

Bank of Greece, European Commission AMECO, Economic Adjustment Programmes for Greece Reviews (* includes imputed social security contributions), WEF Global Competitiveness Index, Capital.gr, ATHEX site, ECB.

Low asset value – Competitive job market

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ELSTAT, * SEV estimate based on ELSTAT and EUROSTAT International Trade Data

Exports of manufactured goods increase

Exports increase

(€ mil. current prices)

2016 2017 %Δ Manufactured products 15,548.3 16,858.7 +8.4

  • f which: Food / Beverages

3,141.4 3,261.2 +3.8 Non-manufactured products 3,018.5 3,023.2 +0.2 Oil exports 6,896.7 8,979.8 +30.2 Total 25,463.5 28,861.7 +13.3

2017

Food, beverages and tobacco 5,641.7 19.5% Chemicals 3,071.2 10.6% Basic metals 2,713.2 9.4% Machinery and Transport Equipment 2,598.8 9.0% Textiles and clothing 1,605.9 5.6% Mineral fuels 8,979.8 31.1% Other products 4,251.0 14.7%

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Remaining challenges and legacies (2017)

Greece EU28

Overtaxation Average tax wedge, employee with €50K annual take home pay 58,0% 51,0% Disinvestment Net fixed capital formation, % GDP

  • 4,6%

3,4% Legacy of a depression NPEs as % of exposures (2009 NPL) 47,6% 3,9% Difficult and expensive private sector access to finance Interest rate on new business loans. Loan value up to € 1mio 5,3% 2,3% Corporate sector is small Compensation of employees by corporations, % of GDP 15,0% 33,5% Large share of micro enterpreneurship Employment in businesses with less than 10 employees, % total business employment 57,3% 29,8% Large (and inefficient) public sector Compensation of employees, General Government, % of GDP 12,1% 9,9% High pension expenditure Pension expenditure % of GDP 16,6% 11,5% Low productivity (2009=100) Real labor productivity per hour worked 91,0% 108,9% Low employment Employment 15-64Y , total economy, % of population 15-64Y 53,5% 67,7% Trade deficit (goods) Exports of goods minus imports of goods, % of GDP

  • 11,9%

0,6%

European Commission AMECO database, Eurostat, SBA Factsheet, ECB, Taxes in Europe Database & OECD Taxing Wages, Bank of Greece, Greek General Government Budget Execution Bulletin, Bank of Greece. Tax wedge with SSCs.

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Bilateral business ties – trade and investment

Eurostat (trade by SITC), Bank of Greece database for FDI stocks.

According to the BoG database Germany is holder of the single largest FDI position in Greece. Key investors: Deutsche Telekom, Fraport.

Food, 30.51% Manufactured materials, 18.67% Chemicals, 15.98% Machinery, 12.95% Other manufactured goods, 9.66% Beverages and tobacco, 3.56% Fuels, 3.55% Oils, 2.82% Other, 2.30%

Greek exports to Germany 2017 (€2 bil.)

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Conclusion - The country has accomplished a tremendous adjustment

The way forward:

  • Safeguard political & fiscal stability
  • Advance structural reforms and privatizations
  • Improve the business environment
  • Facilitate the digital transformation of the economy
  • Safeguard labour market flexibility & align pay with productivity
  • Take advantage of pro-Europe public sentiment among political

parties and society