C OMPANY P RESENTATION 3Q 2013 Agenda Chilean Electricity Sector - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
C OMPANY P RESENTATION 3Q 2013 Agenda Chilean Electricity Sector - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
C OMPANY P RESENTATION 3Q 2013 Agenda Chilean Electricity Sector Overview Company Overview Competitive Advantages Conclusion 2 Chilean Electricity Sector Overview Chilean Electricity Sector Sector Segmentation Centralized Dispatch Scheme
Company Overview
Agenda
Competitive Advantages Conclusion Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
2
Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
Chilean Electricity Sector
3
GENERATION
Regulated sectors (concessions)
RELEVANT INSTITUTIONS
Ministry of Energy Regulator: CNE Supervisor: SEC Coordinator: CDEC
3 SUB-SECTORS
TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION
4 SEPARATE GRIDS
Tal-Tal
Arica Antofagasta
Santiago
Castro Chaitén Cochrane
- Pto. Natales
- Pto. Williams
SING SIC SEA SAM
4,146 MW - 24% 16,751 GWh - 25% 13,332 MW - 76% 48,796 GWh - 74% 52 MW - 0% 166 GWh - 0% 103 MW - 0% 287 GWh - 0% Source: CNE, December 2012
Output from available plants (MWh)
*Margin = [Spot Price - Var. Cost]
Hydro OC-Diesel Coal Thermo-Diesel Variable Cost of the Plants (USD/MWh) CC-Diesel CC-LNG SPOT PRICE
Marginal Cost of the System
Demand Curve
Dispatched Plants Back Up Plants Plants receive revenues from Capacity charge Plants earn a Margin*
Centralized Dispatch Scheme Sector Segmentation
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Others Diesel-Fuel LNG Coal /Petcoke Gas Hydro Diesel 7% Coal 27% Gas 0% Hydro 40% LNG 21% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Unregulated Demand Regulated Demand Unregulated: ~30% Regulated: ~70%
Evolution of Power Generation and Demand in the SIC
Annual Power Generation – SIC (TWh) Annual Electricity Demand – SIC (TWh)
4
Source: “Producción Real por Sistema”, CNE/Colbún, 2013. Anuarios CDEC-SIC Source: “Generación Bruta en el SIC”, CNE 2012.
Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
35% 35% 20% 4% 6%
Jan-Sep 2013
0% 5% 10%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2013 YoY monthly growth
Source: “Costos reales marginales mensuales Alto Jahuel”, CDEC/ Colbún; “Historia precios nudos”, CNE; “Informes Mensuales Systep”, www.systep.cl Note (*): The market Price is calculated by the Regulator upon information provided by all generation companies. This average price does not includes the capacity charge component.
Volatile Growing Prices Due to Lack of Efficient Supply
Electricity Prices-SIC (USD/MWh)
5
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1) Energy Node Price Alto Jahuel (USD/MWh) 2) Average Auction price (USD/MWh) 3) Average Market price (USD/MWh)* 4) Energy Spot Market Price Alto Jahuel (USD/MWh)
Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
Strong and Stable Regulation in a A+ Rating Country
6
Country Risk Regulatory Aspects
GENERAL ELECTRIC POWER SERVICES LAW
Set: 1982 3 Main Amendments: “Short Law 1” - 2004 “Short Law 2” - 2005 NCRE - 2008
ENVIRONMENTAL LAW
Major Modification: 2009 Main Amendments: Environmental Ministry, Superintendence, Courts and the Biodiversity and Wild Protected Area Service - 2009
WATER CODE
Set: 1951 Main Amendment: Unused water right patents - 2005
ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
IFRS standards - 2009 Functional currency: US dollar
CCC+ BBB BBB BBB+ AA- CC BBB- BBB BBB A+
- 50
100
Argentina Colombia Brazil Perú Chile
Fitch S&P Electricity Market Structure
GENERATORS
REGULATED
CUSTOMERS
DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES
UNREGULATED
CUSTOMERS
“FREE” CUSTOMERS
SPOT
MARKET Spot Price /Marginal Cost
The variable cost of the most expensive dispatched plant at each moment.
Unregulated
Market Tariffs settled by both parties, generator and free customer.
Regulated Tender Tariffs
Auctioned under the supervision of the National Energy Commission.
CDEC
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TWh
Source: “Informe Técnico Definitivo Fijación Precio Nudo SIC” ,CNE/Colbún, October 2013
Chile Has Growing Energy Requirements
7
Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
Electricity Demand Outlook - SIC (TWh) Electricity per capita Consumption 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 MWh/ person
3.3 8.3
Company Overview
Agenda
Competitive Advantages Conclusion Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
8
Colbún at a glance
- Leading Chilean generation company of reliable, competitive and
sustainable energy.
- Develop projects and manage power infrastructure to generate long
term value.
- Commit our power through long-term power purchase agreements
with distribution, industrial and mining companies.
9
39% 20% 17% 2% 1% 21%
Endesa Colbún Gener Arauco CGE Others >15 players
Main Players in the Generation Sector-SIC
Generation (GWh) and Installed Capacity (MW)
Thermal 55% Hydro 45%
57 % 43 %
Market Cap (MMUSD)
1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
4,830 618
CAGR: 23%
Capacity (MW)
1.000 2.000 3.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2,962 MW 1,260 MW
CAGR: 9%
Company Overview
Some relevant figures
- Revenues of US$ 1.4 billion in 2012.
- EBITDA of US$ 284 million in 2012.
- EBITDA of US$ 462 million LTM Sep 2013.
- Employees: 983 as of Sep 2013.
Source: Colbún, December 2012 Source: Colbún, December 2012
Generation
Capacity
Angelini Group 10% Pension Funds 18% Others 23%
Matte Group 49%
CONTROL
Matte Group (49%) since 2005, a leading economic group in Chile, with stakes in various sectors (forestry, financial, telecommunications, among others).
LARGE STAKEHOLDER
Angelini Group (9.6%) since 2006, also a leading Chilean economic group.
FLOAT
41% free float, with relevant local institutional investor presence.
GOVERNANCE
4 out of 9 are independent directors.
Solid committed controlling group with a strategic and long term vision
Company Overview
10
Ownership Structure
Source: Colbún, September 2013
A+ BBB AA- BBB-*
- 20
40 60 80 100 Local International Fitch Humphreys S&P Credit Rating
* Negative Outlook
Company Overview
Agenda
Competitive Advantages Conclusion Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
11
- Attractive Market
- Diversity of Asset Base
- High Quality Customers, Risk Sharing PPAs
- Strong Financial Discipline
- Committed to Sustainability
- Valuable Portafolio of New Projects
Diversity of Asset Base for Flexibility, Lower Generation Risk
12
Type (as of Sep-13) Capacity (MW) Estimated Generation (1) (TWh/year) Hydro (operational) 1,273 6.5 Hydro (under construction) 316 1.5 Coal 342 2.5 CCGT (gas/diesel) (2) 766 5.0 Peaking (gas/diesel) 581 4.0 Total Total with hydro under construction 2,962 3,278 18 19.5
(1) For hydro, this estimation considers medium-to-dry hydrological conditions. For CCGT and peaking, they are estimated yearly productions (85% plant factor). (2) Gas generation will depend upon gas availability (3) Total figures reflect the commissioning of the Angostura hydro project, which is expected to start operations at the end of 2013.
172 249 630 9 213 103 442 270 874 316
500 1.000
520 mi 320 mi 160 mi 60 mi Santiago 70 mi
Installed capacity (MW) Hydro Under Construction Thermal Hydro
N S
Competitive Advantages
Increasingly Efficient Generation Matrix
13
2% 29% 25% 37% 6% 33% 55% 35% 33% 40% 94% 67% 43% 35% 42% 11%
2009 2010 2011 2012 Sep12 Sep13 Coal LNG/Gas Diesel Colbún Thermal Production Breakdown (%)
6.580 5.567 5.462 5.233 4.066 3.411 2.980 3.836 4.415 6.335 4.493 5.017
2009 2010 2011 2012 Sep12 Sep13 Hydro Thermal Colbún Production (GWh) More Expensive Less Expensive
- Increasingly diversified generating matrix lowers volatility.
- Santa María I has become a key component of our thermal production.
- Since the entry into operations of the Quintero terminal Colbún has been able to secure LNG supply.
Source: Colbún
Competitive Advantages
14
Sales by Type of Customer(1)
Regulated (distribution companies) 63% Un-regulated (mining and industrial companies) 37%
Diversified And Creditworthy Customer Portfolio
Historic Sales by Type of Customer (GWh)
Codelco (A/A+) 16% AngloAmerican (BBB/BBB+) 10% Chilectra (BBB+/BBB+)* 26% CGED (Local A+) 20% Saesa (Local AA) 17% Others 11% (1) As of September 2013 LTM (2) Average monomic prices are calculated by dividing the total amount of sales in US$, by physical energy sales in MWh
- Long term contracts with a diversified and creditworthy customer base
- Long-term average PPA price ~100 US$/MWh
Sales Volume by Customer (%) (1) Selected historical average monomic prices (2)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2010 2011 2012 Sep13
USD/MWh
Regulated customers Unregulated customers
*Enersis (Baa2/BBB+/BBB+) owns 99.1% of Chilectra
2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 2010 2011 2012 Sep12 Sep13 Regulated customers Nonregulated customers
Competitive Advantages
The key driver in our results is our commercial policy
- 1. Define optimal
contract level
- 2. Incorporate indexation
formulas in sale prices, which reflect our cost structure
- 3. Business, operational
and financial management
Hydro capacity Efficient thermal capacity CPI Fossil Fuels prices
15
Flexible prices for transitional periods
Corporate Risk Management Financial hedges Natural gas supply for certain periods
COMMERCIAL GOALS
Supply secure and competitive energy to our customers Maximize returns from our current and future assets Manage volatility given relevant hydro component
Competitive Advantages
16
Commercial Balance Improving
5.566 5.462 5.233 4.577
95 1.853 2.745
1.273 2.418 2.242 3.202 2.563 1.901 2.240 912
8.829 10.687 9.834 11.433 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 2010 2011 2012 LTM Sep 2013
GWh
Hydro Coal Gas Diesel Contractual Sales Volume Contractual Sales vs. Generation (GWh)
Competitive Advantages
Income statement and FCF
32% 15% 20% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2010 2011 2012 Sep 2013 LTM
EBITDA (MMUSD) Selected Sources & Uses of Funds (MMUSD) Key Metrics EBITDA margin (%)
100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 Sep 2013 LTM WK Capex EBITDA 331 205 287 462 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2011 2012 Sep 2013 LTM
17 2010 2011 2012 Sep 2013 LTM
Leverage Ratio (%) 65 62 71 69 Net debt to EBITDA (x) 3.1 5.9 5.3 4.1 EBITDA Interest coverage (x) 6.7 7.4 8.7 7.5
Competitive Advantages
Current Assets 692 Current Liabilities 548 Cash and equivalents 208 Long-Term Liabilities 1,924 Accounts receivable 147 Recoverable taxes 231 Other current assets 106 Non-Current Assets 5,352 Shareholders' Equity 3,572 Property, Plant and Equipment 5,014 Other non-current assets 338 Total Assets 6,044 Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 6,044 Cash USD 208 million Committed lines UF 4 million (~USD 200 million), unused. Other sources of liquidity ~ USD 150 million in credit lines facilities, ~ USD 300 million registered domestic bonds ~ USD 100 million registered commercial papers Dividend policy 30% (minimum required by Chilean law). Amortization Schedule of LT Debt (MMUSD) Balance Sheet as of September 2013 (MMUSD)
18
Strong financials
Liquidity Position Debt by Currency
Fixed 89% Varia ble 11% USD 78% UF 22%
Interest Rate Exposure
Competitive Advantages
EMPLOYEES COMMUNITY AND SOCIETY ENVIRONMENT CONTRACTORS AND PROVIDERS
19
Colbún: a sustainable partner
INVESTORS CLIENTS AND SUPPLIERS Competitive Advantages
20
Our expansion plan
OTHER GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES FINAL STAGES
(expected to begin generating by the end
- f 2013)
43% 53%
Angostura 316 MW
Hydro capacity (*NCRE)
San Pedro 150 MW La Mina* 34 MW Santa María II 342 MW
~ 4,300 MW 2,962 MW
Coal-fired capacity Combined-cycle capacity Open-cycle capacity (natural gas and/or diesel) LONG-TERM LNG SUPPLY Optimization of existing CCGT (766 MW) and open-cycles (270 MW) subject to securing a long-term competitive and flexible natural gas supply.
Hydro potential ~500 MW
Competitive Advantages
ANGOSTURA HYDRO POWER PLANT: 316 MW
Santa Barbara and Quilaco, Biobío Region
INVESTMENT POWER PLANT:
700 MMUSD
INVESTMENT TX LINE:
45 MMUSD
SPENT AS OF SEP. 2013:
668 MMUSD
ADVANCE SEP. 2013:
97% ESTIMATE START OF GENERATION: 4Q2013
SAN PEDRO HYDRO POWER PLANT: 150 MW
Riñihue Lake, Los Ríos Region
INVESTMENT AND SCHEDULE:
Under revision
SPENT AS OF SEP 2013:
114 MMUSD
ANGOSTURA SAN PEDRO
Business Strategy
21
Our projects under development
LA MINA LA MINA HYDRO POWER PLANT: 34 MW
Maule River, Maule Region
SANTA MARÍA II COAL POWER PLANT: 342 MW
Coronel, Biobío Region
SANTA MARÍA II
Company Overview
Agenda
Competitive Advantages Conclusion Chilean Electricity Sector Overview
22
DIVERSITY OF ASSET BASE STRONG FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE COMMITED TO SUSTAINABILITY STRONG PIPELINE OF NEW PROJECTS
23
Colbún
ATTRACTIVE MARKET HIGH QUALITY CUSTOMERS, RISK SHARING PPAs