CH CHALLENGES S OF DETERRING IR IRAN Dr Dr. Chris Bolan, n, COL - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CH CHALLENGES S OF DETERRING IR IRAN

Dr

• Dr. Chris Bolan,

n, COL (R) R) Pr Professor of Middle East Se Secur urity Stud udies ch chris.bolan3@gmail.com @Dr DrChrisBolan

OVERLAPPING DECISIONMAKING AUTHORITIES

Who is the intended target of deterrence?

WIDE-RANGE OF ‘MALIGN’ BEHAVIORS

Ò Conventional issues ÉNuclear ÉMissile ÉHormuz Strait Ò Unconventional issues ÉTerrorism & proxies ÉCyber ÉInformation

What are the priorities for deterrence? What actions will cross declared ‘redlines’?

ACTIONS TO BOLSTER DETERRENCE

É Deterrence by punishment Ð Strengthen (broaden) nuclear declaratory policies; extend nuclear umbrella Ð Surge forward deployment US/NATO forces (nuclear capable) Ð Bolster intelligence to attribute WMD, proliferation, & cyber attacks Ð Increase targeting/interdiction of Iranian military & financial support to proxies Ð Improve offensive cyber capabilities to offer credible range of responses É Deterrence by denial Ð Expand offensive cyber capabilities to disrupt nuclear & missile programs Ð Negotiate missile payload & range limits Ð Bolster missile defenses & improve regional early warning Ð Strengthen US/NATO allied military capabilities to counter Iran A2/AD in Hormuz Ð Help create credible & legitimate state-based national security organizations Ð Work with private industry to defend critical infrastructure vs cyber attack Ð Press regional allies to better integrate Shi’a communities É Positive incentives Ð Pledge Western economic investment & technology Ð Champion regional political, economic, & social reforms; build civil society Ð Open Iran to participation in regional security exercises/organizations Ð Ensure Iranian citizens retain access to international community

SUMMARY/CONCLUSION

Ò Key challenges ÉTargeting the right Iranian decision-makers: opaque

& multiple actors with different roles

ÉPrioritizing Iranian behaviors to be deterred or

curtailed

ÉDeveloping coherent deterrent strategy:

punishment, denial, & incentives

Ò Prospects going forward ÉConventional (nuclear, missile, Hormuz) ÉNon-traditional (terrorism & proxies, cyber,

information)