CH CHALLENGES S OF DETERRING IR IRAN Dr Dr. Chris Bolan, n, COL - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CH CHALLENGES S OF DETERRING IR IRAN Dr Dr. Chris Bolan, n, COL (R) R) Pr Professor of Middle East Se Secur urity Stud udies ch chris.bolan3@gmail.com @Dr DrChrisBolan

OVERLAPPING DECISIONMAKING AUTHORITIES Who is the intended target of deterrence?

WIDE-RANGE OF ‘MALIGN’ BEHAVIORS Ò Conventional issues É Nuclear É Missile É Hormuz Strait Ò Unconventional issues É Terrorism & proxies É Cyber É Information What are the priorities for deterrence? What actions will cross declared ‘redlines’?

ACTIONS TO BOLSTER DETERRENCE É Deterrence by punishment Ð Strengthen (broaden) nuclear declaratory policies; extend nuclear umbrella Ð Surge forward deployment US/NATO forces (nuclear capable) Ð Bolster intelligence to attribute WMD, proliferation, & cyber attacks Ð Increase targeting/interdiction of Iranian military & financial support to proxies Ð Improve offensive cyber capabilities to offer credible range of responses É Deterrence by denial Ð Expand offensive cyber capabilities to disrupt nuclear & missile programs Ð Negotiate missile payload & range limits Ð Bolster missile defenses & improve regional early warning Ð Strengthen US/NATO allied military capabilities to counter Iran A2/AD in Hormuz Ð Help create credible & legitimate state-based national security organizations Ð Work with private industry to defend critical infrastructure vs cyber attack Ð Press regional allies to better integrate Shi’a communities É Positive incentives Ð Pledge Western economic investment & technology Ð Champion regional political, economic, & social reforms; build civil society Ð Open Iran to participation in regional security exercises/organizations Ð Ensure Iranian citizens retain access to international community

SUMMARY/CONCLUSION Ò Key challenges É Targeting the right Iranian decision-makers: opaque & multiple actors with different roles É Prioritizing Iranian behaviors to be deterred or curtailed É Developing coherent deterrent strategy: punishment, denial, & incentives Ò Prospects going forward É Conventional (nuclear, missile, Hormuz) É Non-traditional (terrorism & proxies, cyber, information)