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CBRE DOWNTOWN MARKET OVERVIEW
Presented by: October 23, 2008 Angus Fraser Senior Vice President direct: (403) 750-0508 angus.fraser@cbre.com
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CBRE DOWNTOWN MARKET OVERVIEW Presented by: Angus Fraser Senior - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CBRE DOWNTOWN MARKET OVERVIEW Presented by: Angus Fraser Senior - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CBRE DOWNTOWN MARKET OVERVIEW Presented by: Angus Fraser Senior Vice President direct: (403) 750-0508 angus.fraser@cbre.com October 23, 2008 2008 DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Overall Inventory 33 million square feet Overall
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Oilsands work strengthened office market $12 natural gas, $130 oil rekindled demand – both now lagging No options over 100,000 square feet until 2010. Current options over 25,000 square feet few/ problematic Capital Expenditure Programs boosted drilling Rents stable Leaseholds offer value $80 per square foot replacement cost Spot premium holding M&A activity limited
2008 YTD
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SIGNIFICANT LEASE TRANSACTIONS
TENANT / LANDLORD AREA LEASED BUILDING
Petro Canada/Brookfield & ARCI 974,000 Petro Canada Centre Vermilion Energy Trust / Oxford 100,000 Centennial Place Penn West Energy Trust / DEGI 380,000 Homburg Harris II Baytex Energy Trust / Oxford 108,000 Centennial Place Petrobank Energy & Resources / Brookfield & ARCI 80,000 Petro Canada Centre
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DOWNTOWN CALGARY OCCUPANCY BY SECTOR (million sf)
Integrated Oil , 4.2 O & G Services , 2.4 Pipeline & E nergy Trading, 1.3 Other, 5.3 Professional, 4.5 Financial, 3.2 Oil & Gas, 9.2 Energy Trusts, 2.2
OCCUPIER BUSINESS TYPE
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DOWNTOWN CALGARY OCCUPANCY VS. CAPEX
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 est 2009 est 2010 est CAPEX (MM) 20 25 30 35 40 SF (MM) O & G CAPEX Oilsands CAPEX Inventory Occupancy
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BUILDING SIZE (SF) AVAILABLE (SF) OCCUPANCY Bankers Court 275,000 Q1 2009 8West 120,000 75,000 Q1 2009 Centennial Place 800,000 430,000 120,000 430,000 Q1/Q2 2010 Jamieson Place 780,000 350,000 Q1 2010 Le Germain 90,000 50,000 Q4 2009 8th Avenue Place (E) 1,070,000 1,024,000 Q1 2011
DOWNTOWN DEVELOPMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
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DOWNTOWN PROJECTION – UPCOMING PRODUCT
DOWNTOWN CALGARY OFFICE SUPPLY PROJECTION (NO ABSORPTION)
1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 OCCUPANCY DATE VACANT SQUARE FEET
NEW PRODUCT VACATED PRODUCT EX ISTING VACANCY
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RECENT M & A ACTIVITY
M&A IMPACT ON OFFICE SPACE (May 07-Oct 08)
643,347 3,623,431 224,100 3,113,738 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 S Q U A R E FE E T .
Pre-M&A Premises Additionally Acquired Excess Premises Post M&A Premises
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0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008 *2009 *2010 *2011 *2012 *2013
New Supply - % of existing Supply Overall Vacancy Rate
Year Inventory Projected Absorption
- Vac. Rate
2007 32,746,000 560,000 sq.ft. 3.4% 2008 32,886,000 0 sq.ft. 3.8% 2009 33,526,000 0 sq.ft. 4.2% 2010 35,499,000 1,000,000 sq.ft. 6.6% 2011 38,369,000 1,000,000 sq.ft. 11.0% 2012 38,369,000 600,000 sq.ft. 9.7% 2013 38,369,000 600,000 sq.ft. 8.1%
DOWNTOWN OFFICE – CONTINUED GROWTH
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DOWNTOWN OFFICE – MODERATE GROWTH
Year Inventory Projected Absorption
- Vac. Rate
2007 32,746,000 560,000 sq.ft. 3.4% 2008 32,886,000 0 sq.ft. 3.8% 2009 33,526,000
- 500,000 sq.ft.
7.4% 2010 35,499,000 500,000 sq.ft. 11.1% 2011 38,369,000 500,000 sq.ft. 16.5% 2012 38,369,000 500,000 sq.ft. 15.2% 2013 38,369,000 500,000 sq.ft. 13.9%
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008 *2009 *2010 *2011 *2012 *2013
New Supply - % of existing Supply Overall Vacancy Rate
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