Cattle Movements & Beef Trade in the SEA & China & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Cattle Movements & Beef Trade in the SEA & China & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 05, 2023 141 likes •320 views

Cattle Movements & Beef Trade in the SEA & China & Developing a Trade Model for the Cattle and Beef trade sector in SEA Luong Pham, Scott Waldron Dominic Smith Hieu Phan Outline of the presentation Background-production,

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Cattle Movements & Beef Trade in the SEA & China & Developing a Trade Model for the Cattle and Beef trade sector in SEA

Luong Pham, Scott Waldron Dominic Smith Hieu Phan

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  • Background-production, consumption, trade &

prices

  • Trends of cattle movement and beef trade
  • Development of a trade model for the cattle and

beef trade sector

  • Development of information dissemination

mechanisms

Outline of the presentation

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Introduction to cattle trade/movement in SEA & China

Cattle production steady Consumption up (income + urbanisation) Prices up Increased Trade/ Movement of cattle in the region Integration Plus VS

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Background – production indicators

Stock (million head, 2014) Turnoff (million head, 2014) Turnoff rate 2014 Ann av growth turnoff rate (2000-14) Beef (thousand tonnes, 2014) Average carcass weight (kg, 2014) Ann av growth average carcass weight (2000-14) Australia cattle 29.1 9.9 34% 0.5% 2,595 183

  • 2.7%

Myanmar bovines 15.5 0.7 6% 8.1% 111 161 0.2% Cambodia bovines 3.1 0.2 6% 4.1% 18 120 0.0% Laos bovines 1.7 0.3 18% 2.5% 25 85 0.9% Thailand cattle 4.9 0.7 14% 3.2% 119 182 0.3% Timor Leste cattle 0.2 0.0 10%

  • 1.0%

2 98 0.0% Vietnam bovines 5.2 1.8 35% 7.2% 345 172 2.0% Malaysia cattle 0.8 0.1 18% 0.3% 53 189 1.9% Indonesia cattle 13.7 2.7 19% 0.1% 498 147 0.4% China bovines 92.7 34.1 37% 2.0% 6,107 177 1.0% China-Southeast Asia 137.8 40.5 29% 1.6% 7,276 175 0.9%

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Annual growth in production

Growth in stock numbers, turnoff and beef production in the China-Southeast Asia region

  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Growth in stock number, turnoff and beef production (%)

Stock numbers Turnoff Meat production

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Per capita supply & drivers

Australia beef Myanma r bovine meat Cambodia Laos Thailand Timor Leste Vietnam bovine meat Malaysia beef Indonesia beef China bovine meat China- SEA Beef supply Beef supply (kg/person 2014) 62.7 2.1 1.2 3.7 1.8 1.5 4.3 7.2 2.7 5.4 4.7 Annual growth 2000- 2014 (%)

  • 0.3%

7.7% 2.6% 5.6%

  • 0.5%

0.9% 12.0% 1.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.9% Demographics (annual growth 2000-2104) Population growth 1.5% 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.6% 2.3% 1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% Urbanisation rate 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 4.1% 3.2% 1.9% 2.1% 1.3% 1.7% 3.1% 2.8% GDP per capita 1.5% 6.0% 5.7% 3.5% 2.9% 5.2% 3.0% 4.0% 9.2% 5.3% Factors in beef consumption Population 123% 10% 38% 22% 71% 8% 47.7% 36% 23% 25% Other (urbanisation, incomes)

  • 23%

90% 62% 78% 29% 92% 52.3% 64% 77% 75%

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Consumption

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

kg / capita / year

Indonesia beef Vietnam bovine meat China urban bovine meat China rural bovine meat China weighted average bovine meat

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Prices

2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real beef prices USD 2010=100 Hanoi fillet Jakarta generic Beijing generic Thailand generic Cambodia generic Myanmar generic

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Growth in per capita beef production and consumption, trade and prices

  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Per capita domestic beef/bovine meat production Per capita beef / bovine meat consumption Beef / bovine meat and cattle trade Beef / bovine meat prices

  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Growth in per capita beef production and consumption, trade and prices (%)

Per capita domestic beef/bovine meat production Per capita beef / bovine meat consumption Beef / bovine meat and cattle trade Beef / bovine meat prices

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Cattle movement & trade

Feb 2017

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Cattle movement & trade

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Cattle movement & trade

  • TRENDS

– Fewer cattle moved from Laos to Vietnam in 2016 è Indication of rebuilding herd, which is a priority by the Laos government – China is likely to demand less cattle from SEA, as it has removed restrictions on beef exports from India; live cattle imports from Australia – VN imported live cattle from Australia in 2016 reduced 46% (compared to 2015) – If Myanmar changes its slaughter and live export policy, then what would be the trend of live cattle and beef trade in the region? è In order to assess trends, and to forecast into the future, there is a need for a systematic tool that can simulate scenarios

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Developing a trade model for the cattle and beef trade sector in SEA & China

  • WHAT HAVE BEEN DONE?

Simplified model of the cattle/beef sector in South East Asia/China

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Developing a trade model for the cattle and beef trade sector in SEA & China

WHAT CAN THE MODEL BE USED FOR?

  • Model the impact of an increase in slaughtering costs to

meet with escape standards

  • Model the impact of improved supply cold chain
  • Model impact of increased beef consumption in main

cities

  • Model the impact on price and sources of supply if

Myanmar cattle supply was cut off

  • Analysis of policy options for liberalization of Myanmar

livestock regulatory frameworks, including changes to the regulations on cattle slaughtering and on live cattle exports.

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Information dissemination mechanisms

http://www.asiabeefnetwork.com Asia Beef Network Facebook group

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Thank you