Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

NEWS PRESS RELEASES Does the Money Match the Targets? - Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Martin Lange German Environment Agency, Section I 3.2 „Pollution Abatement and Energy Saving in Transport“ 7th of December 2016 – Brussels, Belgium

• Goal: Reducing GHG emissions across all sectors by 95 %

until 2050 compared to 1990

Motivation – UBA-study: Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2 Source: UBA 2014

1990 2010 GHG- neutral Germany 2050 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Energy Transport Industry Agriculture LULUCF Waste

Emissions in mt CO2eq

2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Link to Study

Ambitious climate protection targets in transport require a general transition in the sector

Electric vehicles (incl. OC-hybrid trucks) Final energy demand (relative to: 2005) Avoid transport + Shift transport + Improve efficiency GHG-emissions (relative to: 1990)

• 95%
• 80%
• 50%
• 95%
• 80%
• 50%

Avoid transport + Shift transport + Improve efficiency

General transition in transport + Energy transition in transport

• 100%

Alternative drives and GHG-neutral energy supply

• ptions
• 100%

Example: GHG-neutral Germany in 2050

3 Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Post-fossil energy supply options: various suitable pathways

Alternative drives Fuel cell vehicles that use electricity- based hydrogen Conventional drives (Internal Combusion engine) Energy transition in transport Gaseous and liquid Biofuels Gaseous and liquid electricity- based hydrocarbons Electric vehicles and renewable electricity (incl. off-vehicle charging hybrids and overhead caternary trucks)

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 4 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

5 Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

Working principle of Power to Gas/Liquid (PtG/PtL)

2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

On the study: items included and some main assumptions

STUDIED ITEMS:

• Adaptation at vehicles & energy-supply infrastructure
• Costs for energy carrier are also approximated
• Final energy demands of sector and economic costs

for transition to 2050 in Germany THINGS THAT ARE THE SAME IN THE SCENARIOS:

• Transport performance for different means of transport
• overall number vehicles
• improvements of efficiency and production

costs of vehicles and energy carriers AGGREGATION FOR MEANS OF ROAD-TRANSPORT

• Short haul transport

(2-wheeler, light vehicles, trucks in short-haul traffic)

• Long haul transport

(trucks and busses in long-haul traffic)

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

“Determining an expert strategy for the energy supply of the transport sector up to 2050” Link (German only) Study by Oeko-Institut; INFRAS AG and DVGW-EBI for UBA.

6

Four energy supply scenarios that span a wide solution space and are carbon neutral in 2050

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

Partial electrification of LDV and short haul trucks*

* LNG/PtG-CH4 partially substitutes heavy oil in shipping

+ further electrification (LDV, trucks) + el. busses + Overhead caternary hybrid trucks

E+

+ further use of liquid hydrocarbons

Liq+

+ change to gaseous hydrocarbons when possible

CH4+

+ change to hydrogen when possible

H2+

+ substitution of fossil fuels by electricity-based ones: PtG/PtL

(Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 7

Carbon neutral transport in Germany in 2050

2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

today

Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks)

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Energy supply Gas stations & infrastructure Vehicles Sum

E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+

Differential economic costs (bill. €2010)

Energy supply Gas stations & charging points Vehicles Sum

(Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 8 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Strong electrification Liquid fuels (PtL) Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH4) Hydrogen (PtG-H2)

Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks)

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2010 - 2015 2016 - 2020 2021 - 2025 2026 - 2030 2031 - 2035 2036 - 2040 2041 - 2045 2046 - 2050

E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+

Differential economic costs (bill. €2010)

(Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 9 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Strong electrification Liquid fuels (PtL) Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH4) Hydrogen (PtG-H2)

Road: long haul transport (trucks/busses)

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 2 3 4

E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+

Differential economic costs (bill. €2010)

(Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 10 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Energy supply Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Sum Strong electrification Liquid fuels (PtL) Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH4) Hydrogen (PtG-H2)

#1: Costs of energy supply infrastructure are often much smaller than costs for vehicles and for the supply of energy.

Differential economic costs for infrastructure for energy supply: short haul transport

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

E+

Sum: 243,2 billion €2010

Liq+

Sum: 334,7 billion €2010

H2+

Sum: 738,3 billion €2010

Energy supply Gas stations & charging points Vehicles

11 (Source: Oeko-Institut/ INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016)

#2: Costs of energy supply structures are significant but even larger blocks of infrastructure costs are „hidden“ in production/supply of fuels and electricity.

Importance of infrastructure for electricity/fuel production

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Costs are for: 1) RE generation 2) productions sites for carbon neutral fuels from electricity 3) preparation of products for transport, transport to and distribution in Germany Renewable electricity (RE) and GHG-neutral fuels

12

Road – long haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

#3: Overhead caternary trucks are energy and cost efficient but there are barriers to a market entry. Decision whether to build the system should be made as soon as possible and in accordance with climate targets.

• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

10 1 2 3 4 5 6

Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Energy supply

(Caternary and trucks) vs. Energy supply

Differential costs of E+ vs Liq+ (bill. €2010)

www.siemens.com/presse

To benefit from potential savings:

• a positive decision is

necessary soon

• lead time to build up infrastructure

should be taken into account

• delayed phase-in of trucks should

also be considered

13

2021- 2025 2031- 2035 2041- 2045 2026- 2030 2036- 2040 2046- 2050

(Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016) 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Road – short haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 14

#4: Charging infrastructure for battery-electric and off-vehicle charging hybrid-electric vehicles has to be build up, as the electrification in short haul transport is an efficient and effective way to achieve a carbon neutral transport.

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ 2020 2030 2040 2050 Number of charing points Year / Scenario home company public fast-charging Millions Thousands Number of points for fast-charging

(Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/ DVGW-EBI 2016)

Liq+ Liq+ Liq+ Liq+

Road – short haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 15

#4: Charging infrastructure for battery-electric and off-vehicle charging hybrid-electric vehicles has to be build up soon. Electrification in short haul transport is an efficient and effective way to achieve a carbon neutral transport and a reasonable first step.

• 100
• 75
• 50
• 25

25 50 2021 - 2025 2026 - 2030 2031 - 2035 2036 - 2040 2041 - 2045 2046 - 2050 Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Energy supply Differential costs of E+ vs Liq+ (bill. €2010)

(Charging points and vehicles) vs. Energy supply

• In short haul transport a

significant financial barrier with additional costs exists

• In comparison to caternary

system a less pronounced chicken-egg-dilemma

• Battery electric vehicles are

ready for the market and can contribute to 2030 climate targets (e.g. 40% in Germany)

Gas stations & charging

(Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/ DVGW-EBI 2016)

Summary and Outlook

16

A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY FOR ENERGY SUPPLY OF TRANSPORT…

• Contains of a general transition and an energy

transition in transport

• Is in line with long-term climate targets and therefore

allows a shift to carbon neutral transport

• Builds where technically feasible on electric vehicles

as they use renewable electricity efficiently and are therefore cost efficient -> infrastructure is crucial!

• Takes into account, that parts of long haul transport,

and (international) aviation & shipping require huge amounts of PtG/PtL fuels to align with climate targets

• Considers, that costs for energy supply structures

are often much smaller than for energy supply itself

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements 2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Thank you for your attention

10.10.2014 Austausch zur Energieversorgung im Verkehr

www.umweltbundesamt.de/verkehr www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/traffic-noise

• Dr. Martin Lange

Martin.Lange@uba.de Phone: +49 340 2103 2310