Capacity Outputs Working Group NTS-GDN interaction , 10 February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Capacity Outputs Working Group

NTS-GDN interaction , 10 February 2011

Update on Output Measures

• Capacity Workgroup III
• GDN’s Capacity Output Measures proposed:
• Primary
• Demand (Diversified & Undiversified)
• Point to Point Distribution Capability
• Secondary
• Capacity Tools & Network Interactions
• Where available, illustrative Output Measures now populated
• Undiversified DM demand data being collated by xoserve (to

follow)

• Current point to point capability
• Agreed methodology, next steps data collation &

calculation

• Historical measure not readily available
• Inconsistently calculated / collected amongst GDNs

Output Measures

In Development

Benefits:

1.Determined by Shipper bookings 2.Aligned with transportation charges 1.Reflects current dissemination of gas into highly complex lower pressure tiers 2.Capability floats relative to demand and available pressures 3.Consistent with DNO measures 4.GDN’s to develop consistent methodology

Primary Measures: Delivery of future peak day demands Peak Day undiversified 1. Total Daily Metered Load

• a. Supply Point SOQ
• b. DM Supply Point SHQ

Peak Day diversified 2. Total Demand (Diversified)

• a. by LDZ

Capability to meet 1 in 20 Peak Demand

• 3. Point to Point Distribution Capacity
• a. ∑ Capacity of NTS / LTS PRI’s

(MCM/d or GWh/d)

1. Methodologies consistent across industry (TD76) 2. Assumptions and interpretation unique to GDN’s own views

Output Measures

In Development

Benefits:

1. Tracks scale of network over time 2. Tracks the understanding of changes in dynamic behaviours

Secondary Measures Customers 1. Connected Customers

• a. ∑ Number of Supply Points
• b. ∑ Number of Smart Meter Point

References Embedded Supplies 2. Embedded Entry Points (Natural/Bio/Syn/CBM/Shale)

• a. Number of connections
• b. Connected capacity (Aggregate)

NTS Interface

• 3. Flat Exit Rights
• a. ∑ OCS flat rights (MCM/d or GWh/d)

Diurnal Management

• 4. Measures of diurnal tools
• a. ∑ OCS flex rights
• b. LTS Linepack capability
• c. LDZ storage capability
• d. 3rd Party Storage capability

1. Tracks changes from the historic top down dissemination of supplies 1. Tracks top down gas flows and NTS dependency 1. Tracks changes in consumer behaviours and diversity of tools in place

Primary Measure

Peak Day - Demand Forecast

• Peak Day undiversified
• Total Daily Metered Load
• a. Supply Point SOQ
• b. ∑ DM Supply Point SHQ

To Follow

Primary Measure

Peak Day - Demand Forecast – South East

SGN South East Peak day Demand Comparison

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2 4

• 5

2 5

• 6

2 6

• 7

2 7

• 8

2 8

• 9

2 9

• 1

2 1

• 1

1 2 1 1

• 1

2 2 1 2

• 1

3 2 1 3

• 1

4 2 1 4

• 1

5 2 1 5

• 1

6 2 1 6

• 1

7 2 1 7

• 1

8 2 1 8

• 1

9 2 1 9

• 2

Year MWh (thousands) 2010 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2008 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2006 Forecast 2005 Forecast

For illustrative purposes only

Primary Measure

Peak Day - Demand Forecast - South For illustrative purposes only

SGN South Peak Day Demand Comparison

100 200 300 400 500 600 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year MWh (thousands) 2010 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2008 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2006 Forecast 2005 Forecast

Primary Measure

Peak Day - Demand Forecast - Scotland For illustrative purposes only

SGN Scotland Peak Day Demand Comparison

100 200 300 400 500 600 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year MWh (thousands) 2010 Forecast 2009 Forecast 2008 Forecast 2007 Forecast 2006 Forecast 2005 Forecast

Primary Measure

Point to Point Capability For illustrative purposes only

To be developed for the July Business Plan

Installation Name Source1 Offtake 45 bar Minimum Assured Pressure from NTS 38/22 bar Volumetric System determined by OCS Peak 1:20 analysis 200 Kscmh Current Metering Limits PRI 2 PRI feed to below 7 bar network 38/10 bar Maximum Operating Pressure and Minimum System Design Pressure 5 bar Feeds 5 bar System 10,000 scmh PRISM Analysis using Minimum Inlet Pressure GDN Networks Offtake/ PRI Utilisation Installation Type Inlet Pressure Inlet Pressure Assumptions Outlet Pressure Outlet Pressure Assumptions Maximum Capacity of Site Capacity Determined By

150 scmh 75% 210 Kscmh 105% Increase in flow due to Interruption Reform Metering re- rang/ upgrade required 8000 scmh 80% 8500 scmh 85% Maximum Flow occurs at Minimum Inlet Pressure Expected Maximum Flow Year 1 Capacity Utilisation Comments % Utilisation Expected Maximum Flow Year X % Utilisation Flow Assumptions XXXXber 2011

Secondary Measures - Customers

Number of Domestic Supply Points For illustrative purposes only

SGN Domestic Supply Points

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year Numbers (millions) Scotland South South East

SGN I & C Supply Points

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year Numbers (thousands) Scotland South South East

For illustrative purposes only

Secondary Measures - Customers

Number of Non-Domestic Supply Points

SGN & LDZ Supply Point Totals

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year Numbers (millions) Scotland South South East SGN Total

For illustrative purposes only

Secondary Measures - Customers

Total Number of Supply Points

For illustrative purposes only

Secondary Measures - Customers

Number of Smart Metered Supply Points

• Data to be provided when available

Secondary Measures

Number of Embedded Entry Point Enquiries

SGN Embedded Entry Enquiries

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 South East South Scotland

LDZ Numbers

Landfill Coalbed Methane Anaerobic Digestion

For illustrative purposes only

Secondary Measures

Number of Completed Embedded Entry Points For illustrative purposes only

SGN Completed Embedded Entry Points

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 South East South Scotland

LDZ Numbers

Landfill Coalbed Methane Anaerobic Digestion LNG Onshore Gas Field

Secondary Measures

Embedded Entry Points, Connected Capacity For illustrative purposes only

SGN Embedded Entry Points, Connected Capacity

50 100 150 200 250 South East South Scotland

LDZ ksmc/h

Landfill Coalbed Methane Anaerobic Digestion LNG Onshore Gas Field

Secondary Measures

OCS Flat Capacity Booking For illustrative purposes only

SGN Flat Capacity

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Year Gwh/day

South East South Scotland

Secondary Measures

OCS Flex Capacity Booking For illustrative purposes only

SGN Flex Requirement

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Year Gwh/day South East South Scotland

Secondary Measures

LDZ Linepack Capability For illustrative purposes only

SGN LTS Linepack Capability

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Year mscm South East South Scotland

Secondary Measures

LDZ Storage Capacity For illustrative purposes only

SGN Holders & HP Storage Capability

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Year mscm South East South Scotland

Secondary Measures

Total LDZ Storage Capability For illustrative purposes only

Total SGN Storage (Linepack, Holders & HP) Capability

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Year mscm South East South Scotland SGN Total

Questions

For illustrative purposes only