BUILDING A BETTER AA
21st February 2018
BUILDING A BETTER AA 21 st February 2018 AGENDA New Strategy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
BUILDING A BETTER AA 21 st February 2018 AGENDA New Strategy Financial Overview Q&A 2 VISION FOR THE AA ROADSIDE INSURANCE Innovate Invest to & grow accelerate growth OPERATIONAL & SERVICE EXCELLENCE HIGH PERFORMING
21st February 2018
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OPERATIONAL & SERVICE EXCELLENCE HIGH PERFORMING CULTURE
ROADSIDE
Innovate & grow
INSURANCE
Invest to accelerate growth
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Business Review – bottom-up Leadership – fresh talent at exec level Employee Engagement – first review Product Innovation – new team Tech and Data – full audit Customers – extensive understanding Insurance – deep dive
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Key Strengths: Market leader Trusted brand Loyal customer base Strong service ethos Committed employees Prognostics & member data Patrol & dispatch technology Nascent Insurance growth
Sources: Old Street Data Sciences “Brand tracker” for consumer, Q4 2017, direct purchase of breakdown cover; FY17 B2B manufacturer share figures; GfK Financial Research Survey 6 months to September 2017
60% 40%
Consumer Roadside
Roadside market share
B2B Roadside
Insurance brand consideration
#1 for motor insurance #6 for home insurance 3.3m
35% 65%
9.9m
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Progress since IPO Remaining challenges
New business growth in Road membership Improved pricing capability App roll-out and engagement Breakdown telematics launched Core dispatching system installed Core membership system being rolled out Improved patrol service levels Growth in motor Insurance Competitive landscape & increasing regulatory scrutiny Emerging automotive trends Need for continuous product innovation Restricted operational flexibility Remaining legacy systems and data infrastructure Failure to optimise on potential
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Maintaining current profitability will require reduced investment in:
The net of these activities would be:
LIMITED RUNWAY IN SHORT-TERM PROFIT WE HAVE THEREFORE CHOSEN LONG-TERM GROWTH
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OPERATIONAL & SERVICE EXCELLENCE HIGH PERFORMING CULTURE
ROADSIDE
Innovate & grow
INSURANCE
Invest to accelerate growth
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Paid new members up 23% since FY15 Customer loyalty at a high
Increasing digital engagement
Ongoing implementation of core member systems
ROADSIDE
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FY15
CHANGES TO MEMBERSHIP HOLDINGS, FY15-18
Free to paid members Paid new members Member outflows
The business worked hard to stabilise membership in FY17 after many years of decline:
Outflows greater than inflows Inflows greater than outflows Outflows greater than inflows
However, despite continued growth in paid new business in FY18, overall membership did not grow:
channel shifts
3.39m 3.33m 3.34m 3.29m
FY16
FY17
FY18
ROADSIDE
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Transform our breakdown service to be fully connected Market to grow our base with younger segments Ongoing innovation to resolve breakdowns Drive digital adoption and broader member engagement Membership systems investment to drive retention
ROADSIDE
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Trend Our View Opportunities for the AA Connected Car
60%1; remainder open to device market
prediction and resolution Electric / Hybrid Vehicle Growth
faults (e.g. tyres, locked out) unchanged
services for fleet and consumers Changing Ownership
2nd hand car market; significant reductions to ownership would
urban areas
existing financial services business Autonomous Vehicles
remain <30% by 20304
solutions, capitalising on AA scale
Now 10 + yrs.
ROADSIDE
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PREDICTION DIAGNOSTICS Solving customer problems when they break down Predict Prevent Protect
ROADSIDE
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What we believe What we have learnt
Will drive membership growth Early signs of strong appeal with target customers Will drive engagement / retention Highly engaging app experience
Will protect and grow B2B business Significant interest from B2B partners with discussions in progress Will drive down operational costs Predicts up to 1/3 of breakdowns
Car Genie launched Aug 17 5,000 connected devices - now in all regions of the UK Car Genie cars range from 1 month to almost 20 years old
ROADSIDE
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FY19 - 20 FY20
ADOPT
FY21 onwards
INNOVATE
FY20/21
SCALE
FY19/20 Substantial Connected Car roll-out, identifying:
Integrate into membership proposition Develop version 2
Consumer, B2B, Insurance Develop platforms for embedded data streams Mass adoption of connected membership Scale through prognostics as a service for B2B partners
ROADSIDE
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c20%
AA share of drivers within segment with B2C cover
Source: Old Street Data Sciences UK Driver Segmentation
‘Get me back on track’ Younger – Avg. 41 Less emotional AA history TV; Magazines; Internet ‘Just fix it for me’ Younger – Avg. 37 Need new reasons to buy AA direct TV; Internet; Cinema ‘Be there if I need you’ Older – Avg. 68 Strong connection with AA Open direct mail; read newspapers
c60%
AA share of drivers within segment with B2C cover
16%
c30%
AA share of drivers within segment with B2C cover
24% % of Driving Public % of Driving Public % of Driving Public
Grow
21%
Stretch Maintain (historical focus)
Freedom Seekers Retiring to the Easy Life Life’s too Short
ROADSIDE
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B2B Example: Customer’s car cannot be repaired – we solve the problem at the roadside & keep them moving
driver insurance instantly via tablet or iPhone
nearest dealer to collect replacement car
to-end vehicle repair and return process between dealers, repair centres and customers
replacement vehicle
in less than 30mins versus c120mins today
ROADSIDE
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DIGITAL BREAKDOWN REPORTING & TRACKING
As % B2C Breakdowns
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% FY16 Q1 FY16 Q3 FY17 Q1 FY17 Q3 FY18 Q1 FY18 Q3 Reported on App Tracked on App Tracked Online
AA Members have registered with the App
Member breakdowns are tracked on web & app
Member breakdowns do not involve a call
ROADSIDE
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USE OF MEMBER BENEFITS (MOBILE APP) # of unique monthly users
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
ROADSIDE
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NEW RETENTION CAMPAIGN IMPACT, %
Improvements in systems – full deployment of new membership system CATHIE Increased sophistication in renewal pricing & proactive retention – targeted approach Further improvement in ‘call & save’ reactive retention (Stay AA) – workflow and
1 yr 2 - 4 yrs Control Test
Customer tenure MORE CAMPAIGNS CAN BE TESTED FASTER AND MADE SMARTER WITH OUR NEW CRM SYSTEMS
+2ppt +1ppt
ROADSIDE
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Returning membership to growth by FY21 50% members registered on App 20% reduction in breakdowns calls into the contact centres
Plus additional upside from Connected Car
ROADSIDE
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OPERATIONAL & SERVICE EXCELLENCE HIGH PERFORMING CULTURE
ROADSIDE
Innovate & grow
INSURANCE
Invest to accelerate growth
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New 5 yr. growth plan Proven management team Powerful brand Scope for growth with members and non members
AA motor insurance
Ability to underwrite in-house Best-in-class data and analytics Highly efficient cost base
Source: GfK Financial Research Survey 6 months to September 2017
MOTOR INSURANCE – CUSTOMER REPORTED CONSIDERATION AND SHARE
Brands that underperform Consideration Brands
Consideration
Brand Consideration (%) Share of new business (%)
Admiral Direct Line Hastings Direct
INSURANCE
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Returned motor portfolio to growth - now at over 600k policies Insurer hosted pricing (IHP) leading to more competitive net rates from the panel Successful launch of in-house insurer (AAUICL) - now at over 400k policies across home and motor
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 500 520 540 560 580 600 620 640 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 AAUICL Panel Share Motor Policies (000)
MOTOR INSURANCE POLICIES & AAUICL PANEL SHARE
AAUICL Panel Share Motor Policies
INSURANCE
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Broaden underwriting footprint Drive more competitive premiums New Insurance innovation
INSURANCE
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AA INSURANCE QUOTE REQUESTS, %
Underwriter currently does not offer quotes to never-members and younger customers Significant number of quote requests from never-members and younger segments Therefore sizeable opportunity to broaden
Proven learnings from member data portable to ensure profitable underwriting of these new types of customer Brings new customers to the AA - Roadside cross-sell opportunities
6% 7% 87% Members Ex-Members Never- Members 65% 35% Over 25 Under 25
Source: Internal quotes across channels for w/c 6th Feb 2018
INSURANCE
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In-house underwriter launched 2 yrs. ago
customers
Continued insurer hosted pricing (IHP) roll-out and improved data & analytics
growth since launch
This will require investment of c£20-25m from PLC cash
INSURANCE
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Uniquely poised to collect driving data through Connected Car prior to insuring Integrated Roadside and Insurance
telematics economics and leading customer offer Opportunity to develop proposition to drive growth with young driver segments
proposition (84k pupils in FY18)
INSURANCE
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2m+ motor and home polices by end FY23 9-14% EBITDA CAGR FY19-23
Short term EBITDA hit from investment to fund growth
INSURANCE
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OPERATIONAL & SERVICE EXCELLENCE HIGH PERFORMING CULTURE
ROADSIDE
Innovate & grow
INSURANCE
Invest to accelerate growth
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CALL HANDLING SERVICE LEVELS %, FY18 CALL TO ARRIVE TIME, FY18
Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
OPERATIONS Measures the time taken from customer breakdown call to Patrol arrival Measures the % of breakdown calls answered within 20 seconds
Peaks in demand created high levels of workload volatility Drives reliance on 3rd party garaging both for Roadside Assistance and for Recovery - service quality impacted Investment in front-line resources
days Stability and more flexibility in
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Leadership
Investing in Contact Centres
handling
Investing in Roadside Operations
Engagement
CALL HANDLING SERVICE LEVEL %, FY19 TARGETS CALL TO ARRIVE TIME, FY19 TARGETS
Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
OPERATIONS
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Investment in FY19 positions us to target absorbing inflation in FY20/21 through continuous improvement drive Contact Centres
Road Operations
OPERATIONS
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10% pa increase in ancillary sales Maintain improvement in roadside repair rate Aim to absorb inflation in FY20 and FY21 Improve consistency of call to arrive time at 45mins Improve consistency of call handling at 80% in 20s
OPERATIONS
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OPERATIONAL & SERVICE EXCELLENCE HIGH PERFORMING CULTURE
ROADSIDE
Innovate & grow
INSURANCE
Invest to accelerate growth
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3-year planning process
Organisational design – review conducted New leadership – internal communications Engagement survey – first in five years
CULTURE
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Enhanced Roadside products Step-change CRM capabilities Connected Car – Roll-out Insurance Growth – Phase 1
Connected Car – Road, Insurance and B2B – new propositions in market Insurance Growth – Phase 2
Fully utilising our data and digital offering to deliver connected, integrated Roadside and Insurance propositions
Continuous Operational Improvements Continuous Cultural Change
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FY19 £m OPEX CAPEX COMMENTS Roadside 8 14
Insurance 10 5
Operational and service excellence 7
High performing culture 1
26 19
OPEX investment expected to be c£20m pa in FY20 and FY21
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(7) (5) 9 (26) 6 (9) (5) (12)
Trading EBITDA guidance for FY19 £335-345m, adjusted EPS c15p
390-395 335-345 £m
FY18
Revenue holdings decline in B2C and B2B Increase in IPT Insurance upside Opex initiatives for growth Strategic projects inc. AA cars One-off adjustments & releases Non-recurring tax benefits Central costs including additional pension charge
FY19
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REVENUE CAGR FROM FY19 TRADING EBITDA CAGR FROM FY19 Roadside Assistance 2-5% 3-6% Insurance Services and Insurance Underwriting 6-9% 9-14% Group 3-5% 5-8%
Excludes additional upside from Connected Car
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Notes: *Excludes capex accrual of £5m **Solvency capital for growth of underwriter of c£20-25m to be funded by AA plc and is excluded from the breakdown above. £m FY19 FY20 FY21 COMMENTS IT transformation 31 4
implementation for existing members Additional IT and new initiatives 12 18 22
integration and investment in insurance business Connected car 7 7 7
additional product and systems development Growth capex 19 25 29 IT maintenance 20 20 20
maintenance and improvement investment Finance lease capital repayments net of proceeds from sale of fixed assets 25 25 25
Property & equipment 10 10 10
Maintenance capex 55 55 55 Total capex 105* 84 84
charge of c£70m in FY19 and c£90m in FY20 and FY21
maintenance capex £55m from FY19
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(24) (23) (17) (110) (128) (8) (10) 12 10 10 55
335-345 c107 c276
Normalised level of capex spend expected to deliver free cash flow to equity in excess of £80m in FY20 and over £100m pa from FY21
Higher capex funded through internal funds Debt interest costs projected to decrease to c£115m (current punitive swap arrangements terminate in FY19) No additional financing requirements in FY19
c20
£m Underlying adjustments
FY19 Trading EBITDA Cash tax Pension contributions Working capital & exceptionals Net cash flow from
activities Capital expenditure Debt interest Other finance interest Acquisitions & disposals FY19 Free Cash flow Transformation & capex add back Swap costs eliminated in FY19 Acquisitions & disposals Working capital & exceptionals FY19 Normalised Free Cash Flow
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Dividend policy Changed to reflect operation of WBS gating covenant and investment plans Proposal of 2p per share per year until profit and cash flow enables a policy change Dividend proposal FY18: Expected 1.4p final giving total of 5p per share FY19: Expected split 0.6p interim and 1.4p per share final
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£250m £500m £700m £250m £500m £570m £138m
Senior Term Facility Class A3 notes Class A5 notes Class A6 notes Class A2 notes Class B2 notes Cash
Gross debt: £2,770m
Interest rate 5.71%1 4.25% 2.88% 2.75% 6.27% 5.50% Effective maturity 2021 2020 2022 2023 2025 2022
Key metrics H1 18 FY19E Net debt/EBITDA2 6.7x 7.8x Run rate cash interest cover3 2.7x 2.5x Financial covenants H1 18 Class A FCF to DSCR4 (covenant > 1.35x) 3.1x Class B FCF to DSCR4 (covenant > 1.0x) 2.2x
Notes: 1 Fixed interest rates with LIBOR hedged for Senior Term Facility: to 31/7/18 fixed at 5.71%; 31/7/18 to 31/1/19 fixed at 8.42%; 1/2/19 to 31/7/21 fixed at 2.75% 2 Total Net debt, including finance leases net of cash, to Trading EBITDA for the last 12 months 3 Run rate cash interest: Trading EBITDA 4 Free cash flow: debt service cover ratio 5 Total group cash as at 31 July 2017
Significant headroom above financial covenants
Blended cost of debt significantly reduced to 4.52% following pay down of £98m of STF in July 2017 No immediate refinancing requirements
Working Capital Facility (undrawn) of £75m in place Rating: A notes BBB-; B2 notes B+
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Resilient and low risk balance sheet
Evergreen rolling structure: spread out maturity profile allows the company to refinance itself on a continuing basis All instruments are easy to refinance – strong credit profile and investment grade rating attracts institutional and real-money investors Very remote risk of a financial covenant breach
Paving the way for constant value creation over time Whole Business Securitisation
Credit enhancing characteristics of the Whole Business Securitisation (WBS) Attractively priced and long-dated bonds paying fixed interest rates No amortisation – all cash is available to the business
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Net debt Equity Year 1 Net debt Equity Year 5 Net debt Equity Year 3
Value creation does not require significant EBITDA growth
Significant deleveraging potential, generating equity value creation over time
EV: £3.3bn(1) EV: £3.3bn EV: £3.3bn
(1) Illustrative enterprise value of £3.3bn
The AA is effectively an equity for debt swap over time Annual cash flow accounts for a significant portion of existing equity value Simply maintaining the cash flows will generate significant equity value The projected growth in the business
equity holders over time
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covenant associated with the Class A Notes
would need to more than halve before any breach could potentially occur(1)
(1) Based on latest reported Class A FCF DSCR ratio in July 2017 of 3.1x (2) Class A FCF DSCR would have to fall below 1.1x before an Event of Default could be triggered
Covenant-light structure
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Investment to secure future growth from low base Cash conversion as strong as ever Dividend policy change Low risk, flexible capital structure Equity protected by undemanding covenants Debt to equity benefit for shareholders from deleveraging
Investment for future growth and shift of value to equity
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OPERATIONAL & SERVICE EXCELLENCE HIGH PERFORMING CULTURE
ROADSIDE
Innovate & grow
INSURANCE
Invest to accelerate growth
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This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” which are prospective in nature and are not based on historical facts, but rather on current expectations and projections about future events. Such statements are therefore subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “is subject to”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “should”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward- looking statements, including business, economic and regulatory changes as well as the risks set out in the Company’s annual report and accounts, which can be found on its website (www.theaaplc.com/investors). Such forward-looking statements should therefore be construed in the light of such
the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this announcement will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the Market Abuse Regulation, the Listing Rules and the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules), the Company is not under any obligation to update, revise or correct any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. No statement in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast or relied upon as a guide to future performance.
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Jill Sherratt Head of Investor Relations +44 207 395 7301 +44 779 113 7738 Jill.Sherratt@theaa.com Zeeshan Maqbool Investor Relations and Corporate Finance Manager +44 773 879 0402 Zeeshan.Maqbool@theaa.com Lisa Shailer IR Assistant +44 207 395 7442 Lisa.Shailer@theaa.com