Belarus: country focus ETFs Statistics Team Torino Process - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Belarus: country focus

ETF’s Statistics Team Torino Process Dissemination Event | 03.12.2019 | RIPO, Minsk

FOCUS AREAS

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• Demographics and Ageing
• Economy and Employment
• Education and Human capital

CHALLENGING POPULATION DYNAMICS

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Source: Belstat & WDI 20.8% 14.9% 74.7% 78.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 9.00 9.10 9.20 9.30 9.40 9.50 9.60 9.70 9.80 9.90 10.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total (in millions) Youth (% of total) Urban (% of total) Fig 1: Total Population, Youth & Urban Shares in Belarus (2010-2018)

REBOUNDING GROWTH RATES…

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Source: Belstat

• 3.8
• 2.5

2.5 3.0

• 5.0
• 4.0
• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Fig 2: GDP growth rates in Belarus (2015-2018)

…WITH A DOMINANT SERVICE SECTOR

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Source: % UNESCO

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Agriculture Industry Services Fig 3: Gross value added in economic sectors in Belarus (2015-2018)

TRANSFORMATIONS IN SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT

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Source: Belstat Fig 4: Employment (%) by broad economic sectors in Belarus (2010-2018)

10.4% 9.3% 34.2% 29.8% 55.4% 60.9%

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Agriculture Industry Services

INCREASING EMPLOYMENT RATES…

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Source: Belstat; Administrative data Fig 5: Employment (%) in Belarus (2010-2018)

80.7% 83.1% 75.5% 82.2% 86.3% 84%

74.0 76.0 78.0 80.0 82.0 84.0 86.0 88.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Male Female

ENHANCED LABOUR FORCE…

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Source: Belstat Fig 6: Labour force (aged 15+) by education level (2018)

1.5 18.7 44.2 47.2 54.3 34.1

BY EU

at most compulsory (ISCED 0-2) upper/post-secondary (ISCED 3-4) tertiary (ISCED 5-8)

…DUE TO HIGH EDUCATION OUTCOME

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Source: Belstat Fig 7: Tertiary education attainment (% 30-34 years old) in Belarus & EU (2018) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

BY EU Total Men Women

…AS A RESULT OF HIGH SPENDING IN EDUCATION

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Source: Belstat Fig 8: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2018)

4.9% 17.9%

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % of GDP % of total public expenditure

GOOD EDUCATION & LABOUR OUTCOMES…

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Source: Belstat

Fig 9: Early leavers from education (% 18-24) in Belarus & EU (2018) Fig 10: Not in employment, education or training (NEETs - % aged 15-24) in Belarus & EU (2018)

5 10 15

BY EU Total Men Women

5 10 15

BY EU Total Men Women

Source: Belstat

HIGH BUT DECREASING NUMBER OF VET STUDENTS…

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Fig 11: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in Belarus & EU (2018) Fig 12: VET students (%) at upper secondary level in (2010-2018)

10 20 30 40 50 60

BY EU Total Men Women 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Male Female

• 27.3%
• 26.7%
• 28.1%

Source: Belstat Source: Belstat

POVERTY, INEQUALITY & HUMAN CAPITAL

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Fig 13: Public expenditure in education in Belarus (2011-2017)

7.3 5.9

27.2 25.4 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Poverty (% pop) GINI Human Development Index

Poverty Inequality HDI

Source: Belstat for poverty; WDI for Gini and HDI

MAIN MESSAGES

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Demographics and Ageing:

• Declining youth population as a result of unfavourable population trends

Economy and Employment

• Rebounding economy in search of sustainable growth rates
• Increasing employment rates in a mainly industry and service based economy

Education and Human capital

• Favourable education outcomes leading to enhanced human capital
• High but decreasing numbers of VET students